Emily Gullikson takes a look at the Oaklawn Park March 26 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
#1 GIGGING the class drop returning here in his second start off the layoff should not only move him forward in the form cycle, but find himself a contender here. He fits at this level in terms of pace, the Quad II Square stalking above the par line high on the y-axis, a stalking trip as he stretches back out to a route of ground from the sprint three weeks ago. His OptixFIG also move into RANGE with the class change; the 83 OptixFIG earned on March 3rd was on the lower end of the 90-82 OptixFigRANGE (OFR) that day and fits right in line here with the potential to step forward.
#9 MANY SWEET TREATS will receive a lot of wagering support here from the February 26th effort and speed figures, though given that effort she projects to regress this afternoon and presents as a vulnerable favorite.
#1 LOVELY LOU was a vulnerable favorite for similar reasons back on March 11th and projects to move forward in this third start of the cycle with the return to a sprint distance. #3 LIL TATER finds a similar form cycle improvement pattern today as well making her third start off the layoff and cycling back to the BTL (better than looked) race when coming back off the layoff from the key race on January 30th, a race shown in the Past 3 Runlines.
#7 TAILORBESWIFT could hold a pace advantage this afternoon based on her OptixPLOT position in Quad I. She had enough tactical speed to make the lead as shown on Standard with enough separation on Surface/Distance to clear and be a threat on the front end. This will be her second start of the meet and off the claim for Contreras, a high percentage move for this barn. Going back to the January 30th key race when Tailorbeswift was part of the early duel (FTQ = first to quit) that set up for the winner The Mary Rose, one that was able to repeat winning the Downthedustyroadstakes in her next start. That January 30th allowance race also produced another pair of next out winners with Many Sweet Treats running her top effort (91 OptixFIG) being one of those.
#1 SUNNY DALE is her best when able to make the lead and could get that trip here from the rail returning to Oaklawn Park. This will be her third start of the cycle and shown in the Past 3 Runlines to be moving forward on OptixFIG with each race. She had some trouble in her February 4th return and seemed to need and/or given the race coming back after the 110-days off. The intention was to show early speed last week at the Fair Grounds, however, the slow start and shorter distance kept her in a wide tracking role behind the lone winner. There are some projections for that trip as she is placed in Quad III today (and as a Circle) with others in Quad I. That is taking into account and the “Yellow” PlotFit as well as those recent trips combined with her races here last season to project a more “lone” style trip here. The biggest pace threat and honest contender, #4 HEADLAND sits in the more “obvious” front running trip as a Quad I Square furthest left on the Plot. That makes her capable in this spot though does seem to prefer to press the pace, rather than be the pacesetter. That more nuanced sign could open up this race for Sunny Dale to make the lead and get back to her top form and tough to run down on the lead today.
Value should be there with Sunny Dale off her recent races and with the presence of Headland and #2 FRENCH EMPIRE in the field. The lower 17 SpeedRate pace and trip will be required for French Empire from Quad IV and lacks value as a result of the pace scenario. #3 SHESOMAJESTIC and #6 BEST KEPT SECRET should benefit from the class relief exiting the stakes races and running in this allowance condition. Both hold that same preferred “presser” style which could have them chasing without much finish (Circles) in that Quad I/II spot. #5 MUCHO AMOR is tough to support from Quad IV given the pace here though has some upside making her second start of the form cycle and returning to the sprint distance. She is also a slight flow upgrade from the March 5th race when involved in a WIDE DUEL that set up the winner from off the pace.