December 8, 2022

Oaklawn Circles & Squares Analysis for April 16

Cirlces & Squares for Oaklawn Park

Emily Gullikson analyzes the Oaklawn Park April 16 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.


The “Yellow” PlotFit will be considered as well as compensation on the board for #4 THE BIG BLUFF position as a Square in Quad IV. He will make his second start of the season here coming out of the common race back on March 27th. The wagering support came in early for him before he drifted to the 4-1 final odds off the assigned 8-1 morning line that day. The trip and race dynamics for him were not ideal, and while they are not “ideal” this afternoon these conditions should not have him completely compromised from a pace perspective. There is a subtle though positive change as he moves off the rail, a change that should allow for him to race outside horses a preferred trip for him and noting a poor record when given the rail. As shown in the Past 3 Runlines, The Big Bluff has been recording OptixFIG in RANGE for this race, a factor that fits as a contender when looking at those numbers comparatively with the others in this field.


The assigned morning line favorite #3 INTREPID HEART looks vulnerable in that role and worth looking elsewhere. Not only will he be required to get the trip from Quad IV, but his current form cycle could also present regression this afternoon following a top figure of the series; the 93 OptixFIG from March 26th was earned with the race dynamic (FLOW) and despite being clear late was drifting (NO_LINE) to the wire.

The “Sun” Contention and 29 SpeedRate does not necessarily suggest the race will be falling apart late and could see #6 CATDADDY upgraded as the lone Quad I Square. That said, his form as of late has been just average according to OptixGRADES this season and would require a peak effort and that trip.

The race dynamics could benefit #1 VANGLIDER and #2 SHORTLIST, well-placed in Quad II albeit Circles and capable to take first run on the deeper Quad IV closers Intrepid Heart and #7 CASHANOVA. Both Vanglider and Shortlist have recorded OptixFIG in RANGE and are finding some subtle class relief as well as coming off subtle “trips” according to OptixNOTES in their most recent starts projecting upside from that perspective as well showing up in this race.

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