This is a competitive race; #3 WELLINGTON WONDER is projected to be a heavy favorite this afternoon based on the assigned 3-5 morning line. Looking at OptixPLOT below she is capable to compete with this group on the step up in class. She is not “vulnerable” based on the Plot position; however, she does find herself in that early Contention (Sun) along with the 67 SpeedRate. There are some pace challenges to overcome as well as some concerns as the favorite based on her current form cycle and timing. Form must be considered in this case and looking at the Past 3 Runlines, Wellington Wonder has an OptixNOTE Keyword of HARD on May 17. Her form cycle going into that race suggested a move forward from the PREP Keyword when coming off the layoff on May 6. She earned a top 82 OptixFIG for that win and the timing for this third start of the form cycle, coming back in just 17 days from the HARD race, could see regression here.
As noted the Sun Contention and 67 SpeedRate are key factors to this race shape and can be seen on the Plot itself with four of the six runners positioned to the left of the y-axis and more than half of the field positioned above the Par Line. That scenario requires the ability to finish (Square) along with OptixFIG in RANGE to compete at this level. #6 DRINKATTHECREEK checks those boxes and fits on class with the B OptixGRADE earned at this condition on May 17 that can upgrade her OptixFIG from that day. #5 QUIET CONTENDER should appreciate the Contention/SpeedRate for her run from Quad IV. She will still require a trip and to run down Drinkatthecreek as she projects to rake first run.
#1 FIRST SQUADRON and #2 MISTY EXPRESS sit below RANGE on OptixFIG, with Misty Express upgraded with Surface/Distance and the B- OptixGRADE on May 17 to hold for a minor share. #4 SISTER GEMA holds OptixFIG in RANGE shown in the Past 3 Runlines and capable to improve making her second start off the layoff.
The Contention and SpeedRate were discussed in Race 1 and carries over into this starter allowance sprint. The Contention here is rated “Fire” with five of the six runners positioned in Quad I/III and supported by the OptixRPM (RunStyleMatch) with that group sharing the EP RunStyle. The 17 SpeedRate is on the lower side, a change from race 1, and this type of scenario could allow for the Quad I Squares to still be able to finish, a best of the speed scenario. There is not much between the two projected favorites #5 TAPJEN and #6 OUR MUSICAL MOMENT on the Plot as well as speed with both running OptixFIG in RANGE. Tapjen has the Red Keywords with the two REGRESS Projections off her recent wins which could catch up to her here especially with today’s pace scenario. That could present the edge of the pair to Our Musical Moment of the two, though she will still have to work a trip from the outside post and overcome the “Fire” Contention.
#2 ARCHIE’S GIRL is the lone “closer” with the PC RunStyle in Quad IV and could get the right pace setup this afternoon for her run. She will make her third start of the form cycle and is moving forward from her races on OptixFIG and holds numbers in RANGE from last season to compete this afternoon.