October 19, 2021

Indiana Grand Circles and Squares analysis for the Peony Stakes

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Indiana Grand Circles & Squares

Race 8 – Peony S. (1:21 p.m. ET)

The Peony S. is a competitive event with some potential value. The pace is tough to get a handle on, and that is noted with the “Yellow” PlotFit. There are minimal, more subtle, changes from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance, and for the most part the field lines up along the diagonal. The OptixRPM is key to the race shape lacking E and E/P, the pacesetting Run Style horses. Horses will have to take up that role by default, and the pace could still be Contentious (Sun) based on the Quad I. This scenario often requires finishing ability and upgrades Squares with positional speed.

That pace scenario could benefit morning-line favorite #3 BLOODY MARY MORNIN as a Quad I Square, though she could have to race closer to the pace than she ideally prefers. There are other challenges with her at today’s distance and primarily class stepping up to the stakes level. While her form has been consistent and OptixFIG sit in Range, she will still have to transfer that form and speed to the stakes level. That class question should be compensated for in price and does not look to be the case today.  

There are similar value concerns for #7 BUMBLE OF LOVE based on the morning line. Granted she has improved form and OptixFIG coming into this race, she has the similar class test stepping up to the stakes level. Trip will have to be factored into that number with her off-the-pace running style and Quad IV position with the lack of E/EP types along with the lower SpeedRate.

#10 TIMELESS ROSE fits as a contender and value play at 6-1. Her form as shown in the Past 3 Runlines lacks “Red” and shows OptixFIG in RANGE as well as the IMPROVE Keyword from her most recent start. In terms of class, she has stakes form, including her first-past-the-post in the Florence Henderson S. here last year. She earned a B+ OptixGRADE for that effort, though she made contact with a rival (a tiring rival) and in a controversial call was disqualified and placed fourth. 

#5 DONTYOUREMEMBER could be light as a contender with Grades and FIG below RANGE, though she can be upgraded on the Plot for an underneath use at what should be one of the longer-priced horses in this field (30-1 on the morning line). #6 DIAMOND SOLITAIRE finds herself in a similar position on Standard and could see her Surface/Distance Plot upgraded with her lone turf start, the Ellen’s Lucky Star, earning the BTL Keyword.

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