October 21, 2021

Indiana Grand Circles & Squares Analysis for Aug. 18

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Indiana Grand Circles & Squares

RACE 4

One of the benefits of OptixPLOT is to quickly identify the favorite, whether it be playing live or using the morning line (as the case here), and assess to determine play. In this case, #9 SWEET SKY is listed as even money (1-1) and projects to be the heavy favorite at post time. In terms of looking at OptixPLOT and the Large Square in Quad I/III she is capable to win from that position. However, in terms of value, she’ll have to contend with the “Fire” Contention and honest 45 SpeedRate. OptixGRID will assist further in terms of form, speed, and class. Sweet Sky has a “red flag” looking at GRID coming off a debut win earning a 73 OptixFIG at the special weight condition, a strong speed figure, and win at a protected class. Now she’s running for a $5k claiming tag. Hmm…. That 73 OptixFIG fits in RANGE for today’s race and like the Plot position is capable to win, though the “Form” question remains and at a short price is worth taking on as value will present on other runners in this field.

Another benefit to OptixPLOT is eliminating horses, a process of elimination in handicapping. Looking at OptixPLOT, #2 AZIPASS, #5 FOUND MY MAN and #6 YESTERDAY’S KISSES lack a pace advantage sitting as Circles in Quad I, II, and III as part of that Contention and SpeedRate. That extends to #3 GIRLYSGOTTHELOOKS on the opposite end as a Circle in Quad IV lacking both early speed and finish. #8 ROYAL TO BE is not necessarily eliminated due to the Standard Square. However, she has the same hurdles in terms of Contention and SpeedRate, something that would have to be compensated on the board, and the current 6-1 would be short in this case.

As a handicapper sometimes it requires taking creative liberties and, in this case, I will accept that #9 Sweet Sky will be part of the early pace, though perhaps not as strong today as that Square on the Plot suggests. If that theory is true, that could upgrade #7 C J S SUZIE BYU as a Square in Quad I and above the Par Line. Her current form is showing some progression, improving Grades and OptixFIG, coming into this race in the third start off the layoff. She will also find class relief from those races and has run OptixFIG in RANGE going back in her past performances. While the case for her contains a lot of “projections,” that is something that has to be compensated on the board, and that could be the case with the assigned 10-1 morning line.

 #1 MAGNIFICENT REVENGE will look to capitalize on the Contention and SpeedRate with her run from off the pace as a Quad IV Square. She is capable of sitting a little closer to the pace keying off her Aug. 2 race with the trouble at the start (TROUBLE_S), which had her further back that day. She will return here with a rider change to Pedroza, and would also look for an equipment change on the track as front wraps were added in that most recent start and removal could signal positive intent. #4 GLOWED overall is on the average side lacking an edge in terms of OptixFIG and Class. However, can be upgraded on the Plot/pace again at the right number.