Today’s race highlights an OptixPLOT with a tricky pace scenario and one that does not come up often, though it can be confusing when it does. In terms of the PlotFit, it is “Green” with the horses lining up on the “diagonal” with minimal changes from Standard to Surface/Distance. The “Fire” Contention can be seen on both Plots with the concentration of runners in Quad I and similar for the 58 SpeedRate with about half of the field above the Par Line.
This scenario becomes tricky when bringing in the OptixRPM, the RunStyleMatch. Notice even with the “Fire” and higher-than-average SpeedRate, there are no clear E or EP, pacesetting RunStyle type horses. In this case, using OptixNOTES is helpful to identify perhaps some “hidden” E or EP types, especially if they are in Quad I. Square are also key in this scenario even with the lack of true front runners. Finishing ability is crucial. The handicapping will start there to see if there is a hidden pace advantage present.
#4 CROSSED THE LINE looks to perhaps have the “lone” advantage on Standard, though has not won or raced on the lead and will be stepping up off a maiden claiming win and lacks finish as a Circle. #7 MOMMY BERTA did show early speed and part of the duel on May 26. However, was the “first to quit” the FTQ, that day and has been most effective in a stalker role. She could be against it in terms of trip/pace as another Quad I Circle.
#6 BIA BOLT RUNNER has the most significant Plot change taking up a role today in Quad I, her previous races sitting in Quad II/IV. She is coming out of much higher claiming races and her OptixFIG sit on the higher end of par. As she takes the drop in class, she has the ability to show more tactical speed based on that class change and fits as a legit contender.
#1 UNION PARK GAL can be upgraded on Surface/Distance and has run forwardly placed in previous starts. She will stretch back out in distance today wheeling back in 11 days from an Arlington Park turf sprint, and could see apprentice rider Lopez aggressive from the rail. She has shown some distance limitations (SHORTER) in the past and will look to use her fitness (form cycle), class (drop), and speed (OptixFIG) in RANGE (OFR) to compete today and attempt to overcome the lack of stamina.
#5 LOVELY TROPHY GIRL has the ability to move forward and IMPROVE with that noted Progression from OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines. She holds a positive form cycle going back to the Turf Projection on June 10, and catching another off track on July 1. Tactically, she was too far off the pace to compete on July 22 even when making her move. She will return in this spot slightly rested with the 41-day break and a rider change with Mojica taking over.
#2 TRADITIONAL ARCHER also is playable for an underneath spot and holds some upside returning to Indiana Grand and the turf. She showed run over this turf course back in May and has been running at Belterra since. She returns to the turf in her second start of the form cycle in what looked to be a PREP on August 18, as she was held up (TACTIC-) from off the pace and not asked (NO PUSH) for run. Her OptixFIG sit below RANGE and would need a career best to win, though is not far off RANGE for that potential improvement. A longshot case can be made for her and use in exotics. #3 HOT N SWEET sits below in terms of OptixFIG though sits in a position on the Plot that could be useful underneath.