RACE 8 – BACK HOME AGAIN STAKES:
Today’s race highlights an OptixPLOT with lightly-raced juveniles. The PlotFit is “Yellow” and the right scenario to exercise caution as these young horses can still be improving and establishing their running style. OptixNOTES is a big assist in this case to understand which horses benefit from favorable trips and might be flattered on the Plot, and the opposite with horses that might not look great based on a prior race shape or trip that can be upgraded.
The “Fire” Contention should be taken into account where #7 MUDDY BOOTS looks be the controlling speed in this group. She is shown as a Circle; however, she has upside as she was the “BOS” (the best of the speed) and could move forward as that debut race was 104 days ago and has been given time to mature. She can be upgraded further as that debut race was in against open special weight company and she was clear late, where she did not have to “finish” a likely factor for that Circle.
Jockey Esquivel might have had a choice in this race and sticks with Muddy Boots over #1 SKYS IMAGE, another pace player and a legit presence as a Quad I Square. Skys Image earned a B+ OptixGRADE breaking her maiden on July 22, a grade that suggests horses will be competitive stepping up in class. She was also given the REGRESS Keyword, something of a concern, though has been given 48 days to recover coming into this race.
#8 RE ANTE has strong finishing ability shown as a Large Square in Quad III. This Plot placement is a tricky read in Quad III as it shows some positional speed and finish, though needs to show more at the second call. She is capable to show that here as she has upside with that debut experience, racing GREEN and capable to improve. That upgrades her Plot position and suggests the ability to improve off her 64 OptixFIG, a number that already is sitting on the higher end of par. Connections are showing positive intent by running in this stakes race for her second start and with favorable timing wheeling back in three weeks.
The timing is more of a concern for her stablemate #2 LOUDER THAN WORDS, also showing up here for Granitz off a special weight debut win. Louder Than Words broke her maiden just 13 days ago and perhaps less “intention” for this race given the timing. That takes nothing away from the effort and earning the highest OptixFIG, 76, a number that will likely gather public support. Value could be lacking given the other factors, with a run that will have to be duplicated on short rest with the surface switch also in play.
Lack of value is also likely for #6 FLIRTY DANCER, assigned the 3-1 morning line favorite. She has three races coming into this event and more established form as far as her position and shape on the Plot. Her Plot position does not hold any edge over the others in this field, and while progression steadily race to race, will have to take another move forward here. Those factors should be compensated for in price and that does not look to be the case. #11 EVERYTHING’S ROSY could offer value of these two exiting the common race on August 10, where she was favored and was compromised by the start as shown by the Keywords in the Past 3 Runlines.
When a barn sends out multiple runners, it can be tough to decipher the intent between those horses and part of the puzzle with trainer Genaro Garcia and owner Murphy/Southwest sending in a trio with #3 MI ESTRELLA, #4 HOLY JUSTICE and #5 COMPRESSED ENERGY. All three are positioned similar to each other in the center of the Plot with Holy Justice the lone Square. She has some upside coming back off the layoff though a challenge at the same time with that break and making her first start in against winners. Mi Estrella and Compressed Energy will return from the allowance on August 10 with both needing to improve off their respective efforts. Some upside could be projected for Compressed Energy with the TACTIC- Keyword and making her second start off the layoff.
Rounding out the field, #9 NO MORE FAKE NEWS has been on a progressive pattern and should benefit from the added ground though is coming off a favorable trip (TACTIC+) breaking her maiden 20-days ago and the challenge closing from Quad IV; #10 KISSES SO SWEET projects to be part of the early pace, though lacking an edge from her position as a Circle in Quad I.