CIRCLES AND SQUARES – INDIANA GRAND 10-13-2021
RACE 4: Today’s race highlights an OptixPLOT with “Red” PlotFit, a Fit that does not line up along the diagonal that runs from the top left to the bottom right. A question was asked over the weekend in regard to the “Red” PlotFit asking if the “Red” is still useful. The pace assessment for the “Red” PlotFit would be categorized as “chaotic.” However, there is still information that is useful. And in this case it will be assessing the projected race favorite #6 VICE COP.
Vice Cop is shown as A Quad III Circle; he does not hold a pace advantage in this field, though he’s still capable from that position to win. There is upside for him cutting back to a sprint with the SHORTER OptixNOTE Projection in his most recent start, the Empire S. last month. Also shown in OptixNOTES is a lot of “RED;” those Red Keywords have to be considered in terms of value. His OptixFIG sit in FIGRANGE, though he lacks an edge over others in this field. Even with the two wins over the summer, he lacked forward progression. Without much of an edge in speed as well as the Red Keywords in the Past 3 Runlines and the Plot position, that creates a scenario worth trying to beat Vice Cop if indeed he is a shorter-priced favorite.
In terms of pace, looking at that first call (left), #4 CAP DE FUEGO projects to make the lead and can run with Vice Cop at that first call and has the advantage to the second call sitting in Quad I. Both are Circles, lacking finishing, and will be tracked by #3 G AS IN GEORGE and #8 CIELO AZUL also taking position in Quad I.
#8 CIELO AZUL is interesting in this spot, and while his Plot position is not ideal, similar to Vice Cop, it is a position that he is capable to find a trip with highest up on the y-axis and most importantly in this case should be price compensation. He has upside in his form this season and will come back from a nice 69-day freshening. He lacks any Red Keywords and showing progressive form topped off with an 88 OptixFIG, a number on the higher end of par.
Looking at Standard, there is visual separation from that first flight in Quad I to the Quad IV group and that aligns with the lower SpeedRate. Trip for those runners from off the pace will be key and require rider tactics to stay engaged with those pacesetters, especially for this 5 1/2-furlong distance. #10 IDEA MAN was able to sit closer to the pace winning as the BOS (Best of the Speed) recording an 86 OptixFIG and without any “Red” holds progressive form coming into this race suggesting he will maintain that form on par for this race. Value and upside could side with Idea Man with similar position and shape on the Plot over #2 AZZARO STEEL one that has similar value concerns as Vice Cop today.
#1 FLATOUTJUSTICE and #5 CLOSE THE CASE are perhaps better suited for the underneath spots, though a pair that should remain in double-digit category are not impossible in a “chaos” race to make the case for at the right number. #9 THEDEVILSALGORITHM will run here up in class against others that have already cleared the N3L condition. He does not hold an edge in class or speed while his most recent 84 OptixFIG is in RANGE. Trip also has to be considered in terms of value for play positioned deeper in Quad IV and cutting back in distance from the recent six-furlong races. #7 EMPIRE’S SCORE is below today’s RANGE on OptixFIG and lacks a pace edge and should not be any surprise here as longshot in this race.