July 25, 2024

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Analysis for Mar. 20

OptixEQ Circles and Squares
OptixEQ Circles and Squares


#7 LOCK UP is worth another look as he will make his second start off the 201-day layoff and of the meet for Lukas. Going back to his return on Feb. 18 he held some hidden form and tactical speed that presented a potential pace advantage, something he could find today. Any potential chance he had with that advantage was cut short (EX – EXCUSE) as Lock Up stumbled coming out of the gate (TROUBLE_S) and was held up by jockey Luis Contreras (TACTIC-) soon after, not allowing Lock Up to run his race.

Today’s race shape could allow for Lock Up, a front runner, shown as one of the two E RunStyle horses in the race to hold a pace advantage under these conditions with the lower 12 SpeedRate. Lock Up is preferred of the E RunStyle horses as his OptixRPM (RunStyleMatch) is highlighted in “green” compared to #3 DOUBLE BOGEY, shown in “red”, indicating the Plot to RunStyle mismatch. Double Bogey, shown as Large Circle in Quad III, looks incapable of making the lead (E RunStyle) in this race, stepping up in class with OptixFIG well below OptixFIGRANGE (OFR).

The Plot position and Circle does include that recent EX coming off the layoff and his previous races as shown with the NO_FINISH in the Past 3 Runlines. As far as that NO_FINISH and Circle, Lock Up has set Fast/Very Fast early paces in his sprint races, races run at a higher level than many others in this field have faced. That comes into play with the class par and OFR for today’s race, conditions that do not create much of a strong edge for many in this field. That lack of an edge includes the more “obvious” types coming off recent wins and in-the-money finishes as many of those that are stepping up in class and often from favorable trips as indicated in the Past 3 Runlines.

As Lock Up returns to make his second start off the layoff and from the EX, it is encouraging that his first work after the race and TROUBLE_S was a gate move on Feb. 27 to work through any potential issues as well as regain some confidence at the gate. That work was followed with a quicker half-mile move on March 7, a positive indicator of form, suggesting Lock Up came out of the race well. That pattern of works suggest positive intent – those specific works are key with this individual given the recent stumble where an injury could occur, especially when combined with his layoff lines. The positive intent extends to the race timing as he wheels back in 30 days and returns to the same allowance condition to project an improved effort this afternoon.


#2 BIG SUCCESS is one of the lightly raced types in this field and one of a group that will make a route debut. This distance is unknown; however he should find this distance suitable according to OptixNOTES that indicated ROUTER in his Oct. 30 Remington Park debut. He was given the STRETCH? OptixNOTES Projection from his maiden Special Weight win here Jan. 22 and will find this added ground in his third start off the layoff. The distance change should keep his value fair in this spot as he makes a class change moving from the stakes race two weeks ago to run in this allowance event. His OptixFIG stack up on par for this race and while it is tougher to project the trip he will receive today with the lack of Surface/Distance PLOT data as shown as a Diamond in the upper right-hand corner, he projects to come from just off the pace as shown on Standard as a Quad II Square. That trip looks to suit today’s race dynamic with the higher SpeedRate in play.