July 25, 2024

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Analysis for March 18

OptixEQ Circles and Squares
OptixEQ Circles and Squares


#1 ONE TEN STADIUM caught the eye in his debut back in October at Remington Park with the Better than Looked (BTL Keyword) with his place finish and still earned the solid B OptixGRADE. He improved off that first start, breaking his maiden here on Dec. 11 earning an improved 74 OptixFIG paired with the strong B+ OptixGRADE. That B+ Grade suggests the horse can step up in class to compete at the next level. He was tested for class on Feb. 25, a race that marked his first against winners as well as taking on older for the first time. He will find a similar class-par today though a change, as this event is restricted to three-year-olds only. As he has progressed with each race, he fits in this event and shows some positive intent as his maiden win rider, David Cabrera, will be back aboard.

Morse will send out a pair, including the 2-1 morning-line favorite, #7 ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, making his first start against winners. One Way or Another broke his maiden here on debut Feb. 11, earning a solid 89 OptixFIG. His ability to show early speed makes him a bigger threat than the number in today’s race, as he could hold a serious pace advantage, the solid Quad I Square.

Form cycle is worth mentioning as he will have the challenge to repeat for this second start. Morse has very strong debut numbers in these Arkansas statebred restricted races; these horses are often well prepared and peaked to win first out. That is worth mentioning with the other Morse runner, #6 WHERE’S RANDY. While this colt did not win in his Dec. 11 debut, his effort was given the “winning” B OptixGRADE, the average win Grade for the BTL effort in that place finish. That effort caught the eye of the public where they sent him off as the favorite for his second start on Jan. 9, but he came up short with the fourth-place finish. He improved his OptixFIG to 79, though with a lighter B- OptixGRADE.

Optix graph


The pace makes for an interesting dynamic in today’s co-feature allowance race. The “Yellow” PlotFit leaves some margin for interpretation, something to consider with the “Snowflake” Contention which could be closer to a “Sun” looking at Surface/Distance.

#1 GAME DAY PLAY should get drawn into that early mix based on his Quad III position to the first call (furthest left) combined with the rail draw. #4 WAYAKIN, also splitting Quad I/III, should be forwardly placed today returning to the route, two-turn distance stretching out from the Feb. 18 sprint for his second start off the layoff. #5 CADDO RIVER had run his more competitive races on the lead last year and could attempt to return to that EP RunStyle today. This will be his second start with Santana aboard. He also finds a change in post position moving toward the middle of the field today, whereas Caddo River was unable to make the lead from the outside post last month.

That projected higher contention given the “Yellow” PlotFit would be now paired with the 34 SpeedRate, a scenario that could find #2 FAN CLUB vulnerable for the trip he requires to win. As shown in the Past 3 Runlines, Fan Club has benefited from favorable (PERFECT, TACTIC+) trips in his two recent wins though faltered (NO_FINISH) after taking pace pressure (BOS) at the Fair Grounds finishing third on Dec.19. In addition, Fan Club sits below on OptixFIG for today’s 99-93 OptixFIGRANGE (OFR), making him light on speed for this race. Those factors offer no value on Fan Club as, according to the morning line, he is the projected second choice – though he could create value in this race as a horse that has potential to finish off the board.

His Quad I Square rival, #7 HARVARD, on the other hand, fits on OptixFIG as shown with those numbers highlighted in the Past 3 Runlines. In addition, Harvard lacks “Red” Keywords (positive form factors) and while he will have to contend with today’s pace scenario, he fits logically on speed, class (OptixGRADE) and current form as he makes his second start off the layoff for this race.

#3 ALLEGE could sit the ideal trip as a Square dead-center in the middle of the Plot. That position should allow for him to stalk that first flight of Quad I/III runners with first run on the Quad IV trio. His class stacks up right in line with Harvard keying off both horses earning a B OptixGRADE and 98 OptixFIG for their respective efforts at the OClm 50000n2x condition, races that are shown in the Past 3 Runlines.

#9 SALOW has a Standard Plot position right below Allege; however that Standard form was prior to the 537-day layoff he will return from today. #8 YOU’RE TO BLAME sits in a similar position; however, a Circle rather than a Square indicates a lower finishing ability compared to others in the field and from a similar position on the Plot.

#6 RAM is a legitimate longshot on the win end for this race with the challenges from pace positioned as a Closer in Quad IV as well as speed, his OptixFIG tracking just below the lower end of the OFR. With that said, he has some positive traits to key for underneath given he will be running on late with the Large Square and should have pace (Contention/SpeedRate) to pick up the tiring Quad I/III Circles as they are projected to lose ground in the final quarter-mile. His form cycle also projects a move forward in this second start off a slight 49-day freshening, and he has higher numbers to run back to, making him capable of improving off the 80 OptixFIG from last month.

Optix graph