January 28, 2023

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Analysis for April 8

OptixEQ Circles and Squares
OptixEQ Circles and Squares

RACE 5:

Class relief is in play for #2 AVA’S GRACE in her third start back this season. She returned in the allowance sprint Feb. 12, a race to set her up for the Azeri (G2) run last month. Her trip (TACTIC-) in the Azeri (G2) was not ideal as she was forced to rate inside. She should be more assertively handled under today’s conditions with a potential edge as a Quad I Square with the lower SpeedRate. She has returned this season with the front wraps on in both starts and should be something monitored on the track here today.

RACE 9:

#6 A REAL JEWEL figures to be favored in this race and as a Quad I Square is certainly not without a chance. That said, she is assessed critically in that favorite role for any vulnerabilities. Positioned in Quad I, she is part of the early pace “Sun” Contention and higher 30 SpeedRate over the Par Line for only the second time in her career. She found that above Par Line position in her most recent start, the March 19 event, doing her best to hold position in a blanket for minors credited with a place finish.

#5 FIFTH RISK comes into this race with a subtle class edge, earning a B OptixGRADE March 25 at this starter allowance condition. Today’s route distance is a change for her, this being her first dirt route attempt and only second career route race. That first route race was back in 2020, ambitiously placed in the Tepin Stakes (8.5f Turf) after breaking her maiden on debut at Saratoga three months earlier.  That is mentioned in this case and in terms of pace and trip, with the lack of data (Diamond) positioning her on the Plot.

The Contention and SpeedRate could benefit #1 LEGENDARY GIFT in terms of Surface/Distance trip tracking off that first flight and sitting with first run. She has some hidden positive form cycle elements in play today such as the rider change keying off a route race TACTIC- Keyword Jan. 14. Her form cycle and race-to-race pattern is also favorable, a subtle “every other” improving pattern, where she tends to run higher OptixFIG on the 14-day or less timing between starts.

#3 DUPLICITOUS finds a similar tracking position and Large Square (finishing ability) in the center of the Plot. In terms of her form cycle and class placement she also holds favorable changes returning here. The starter allowance conditions today and OptixFIGRANGE of 86-80 are in line with the race she finish second with a 91 OptixFIG Feb. 20. She will return from the common race with A Real Jewel from March 19, both earning the same B- OptixGRADE as part of that blanket finish for minors.

#10 MOHAYLADY raced against many in this field Feb. 20 as her first start in against older horses. She is the lone three-year-old in the field and does have that hurdle once again, and at the same time is a lightly raced filly with potential upside. Should the pace become contested early (Contention and SpeedRate) along with the “bunching” up to the left of the y-axis shown visually on the Plot, Mohaylady could benefit from that scenario with her Standard late run.