July 13, 2024

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Analysis for May 1

Cirlces & Squares for Oaklawn Park


#6 HYPERSPORT has been honest this season at Oaklawn Park and finds some favorable class relief in search of that second win this meet. Trainer Ingrid Mason attempted to stretch her out to a route following the Special Weight win here back in December, to no avail. The cutback to a sprint moved Hypersport back up in the speed figure department with OptixFIG in RANGE for this race. Pace is key in these Oaklawn Park sprints and Hypersport brings a favorable EP RunStyle to today’s race shape. As shown on the Plot below, Hypersport is a Large Square in Quad I/II tracking near the Par Line – a favorable position with today’s lower SpeedRate.


The “Red” PlotFit is noted in this case even though there are minimal changes from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance. The race shape is also unique with the “Snowflake” Contention paired with higher SpeedRate and majority of the field above the Par Line.

Starting with the extremes in terms of pace; #5 THOMAS SHELBY with the Large Square in Quad I, will look to be the controlling and dominant speed up front. There is a scenario where he is able to clear and carry that speed as suggested on the Plot, though SpeedRate and that “Red” PlotFit should be factored into that “trip” as well as the number on the board. #1 SANTOS DUMONT presents as the “lone closer” in Quad IV, though is returning off a front running win (BOS/Best of the Speed) and new 102 OptixFIG top (potentially regression) of this current form cycle.

Right in the middle of those two sits #6 SILVER PROSPECTOR as the only other Square tracking from Quad II. He fits this specific condition based on the timing of his four wins in order to run in this race and remain protected. As far as class he will find relief exiting the series of stakes races he has been running in since November of 2020. His most “recent” win was an allowance race, a par (OFR) to today’s condition Oct. 30 2020 at Churchill Downs.

Both #3 OLLIEMYBOY and #7 CADDO RIVER also sit tracking in Quad II, however as Circles. Both of these horses, being relatively lightly raced as older horses, have had “trips” along the way which impact their Plot position and specifically shape. As far as speed (OptixFIG) they fit today’s RANGE with a top effort. Caddo River has the recency and in terms of form cycle has been given 44 days to recover coming off the new top and win March 18. Olliemyboy will give up recency and local experience to others in this field, making his Oaklawn Park debut and having his first start back in 133 days. In addition to holding OptixFIG in RANGE to compete, he could present a subtle class edge based on his races from 2021. That hidden form could have him under the radar in this spot and even upgrade his shape, the Circle on the Plot.

Keeping pace with Thomas Shelby in the early stages should be tougher on #2 BOLD THIRST and #4 BACKGROUND, both shown as Quad I Circles below the Par Line. Bold Thirst overall looks overmatched in this race with OptixFIG well below today’s OFR. Background comes into this race also below, though ever so slightly, while on an improving pattern this season. That said, that OptixFIG progression could work against him today as he will be stepping up in class returning off the win just 29 days ago. Background paired up the 95 and 96 OptixFIG in his two most recent starts, pattern that can suggest he has peaked in this current form cycle.