The Simulcast Best Bets for Sunday, January 30th, 2005

With the advent of full card simulcasting just about everywhere, handicappers are no longer limited to play just one track. When you factor in that horse races are televised directly into homes via cable or satellite dish, opportunities are endless for bettors to watch and wager on a vast array of racetracks. Because of this recent boon, the Simulcast Best Bets Sheet was developed for handicappers wishing to play multiple tracks, but don't necessarily have the time or desire to handicap the multitude of races. The Simulcast Best Bets is comprised of all the Crystal Ball selections for every track provides full card selections for. In addition, the popular Pick of the Day is included in the report. Detailed analysis is provided for each selection contained in the Simulcast Best Bets sheet along with a comprehensive wagering strategy to serve as a guide for you to use so that you may properly bet the race in an effort to maximize profits. As a final point, The Simulcast Best Bets Sheet is not only intended to alert you to the best plays on any given day, but also a tool to assist you with your betting, a wagering guide if you will. Remember, good gambling can sometimes overcome bad handicapping, but good handicapping never compensates for bad gambling! Available Wednesday through Sunday and Monday Holidays.


Index to Approximate Post Times - converted to EST

12:51Tampa Bay Downs2
1:53Gulfstream Park3
2:27Gulfstream Park4
2:57Oaklawn Park2
3:25Fair Grounds5
3:31Tampa Bay Downs8
4:24Fair Grounds7
4:32Santa Anita Park3
4:37Gulfstream Park8
5:04Santa Anita Park4
5:44Oaklawn Park8
6:07Santa Anita Park6

Aqueduct Race 3 (1:26)
#5 FLAGSTAFF (2/1) Having finished 2nd or 3rd in 5 of his 6 career starts, this colt has the looks of a ‘hanger’. However, he added blinkers last time out and did everything right, only to get nailed in the final yards by a deep closer who finished very fast. Flagstaff didn’t hang or wait on horses at all that day, finishing 5 lengths clear of 3rd, and was only caught by an unusually strong finish put in by the winner. Flagstaff probably wins this if he simply repeats that performance. Bejarano stays.
Wagering Strategy: A win bet on #5, Exacta:5-1, small reverse, Smaller exactas:5-8, 5-10, no reverse
Pick of the Day for Sunday, January 30th, 2005

Pick of the Day
Aqueduct Race 5, #6 PANINA
Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles, 4yo and up Fillies and Mares
Post Time ( 2:20) ET

(5) J. B.'S ANNIE 15/1
(6) PANINA 2/1

Pace Scenario:
In a field made up mostly by off the pace runners, Panina should be able to attain the lead early which makes her dangerous in this spot. The inner dirt track has been playing honest in recent days following a series of intense speed biases.

Pick of the Day:
#6 PANINA makes her 2nd start off a layoff after being sharpened in a sprint Dec 19. She lost all chance that day after stumbling at the start and then racing wide throughout against a strong speed inside bias. Sprinting is not her game so today she should be more effective stretching back out to 2 turns. Panina got a beat less than a lengths the only time she tried 2 turns during the summer at Saratoga. Her 2 career wins have come over a distance of ground in 1 turn routes at Belmont. Because of the lack of speed in here, rider Bejarano should be able to get her right out to the lead and try to slow down the pace.

Wagering Strategy:
Play #6 PANINA to Win. 6 unit exacta part wheel 6 over 3-7 reverse 3-7 over 6 for 3 units.

A unit = your base wager. For example, if you are a $2 bettor, one unit would equal $2. These are just suggestions, so please remember to wager within your comfort level. Every effort has been made to ensure the program numbers are correct but please double check before wagering.

Aqueduct Race 7 (3:15)
#5 OUR RITE OF SPRING (5/2) This filly has been in sharp and improving form since returning from a layoff last summer and adding Lasix. She tried stakes company for the first time December 11 and won despite considerable trouble. Usually a front-runner, she stumbled at the start that day, was dead last early, then raced 3-wide over an inside/speed favoring track. She was really much the best, and shows four works since then while being freshened. Without much other speed in this race she’s expected to return to her front-running ways while facing a group that’s probably no better than the one she just beat.
Wagering Strategy: A win bet on #5, Trifecta: 5 over 1-3-6 over ALL = $15 for a $1 wager

Fair Grounds
Fair Grounds Race 5 (3:25)
#6 SONGFEST (5/2) Gray daughter of Unbridled's Song is a very promising Overbrook Farm homebred. In her sprint debut she rated in mid-pack behind a fast pace, got through along the rail and finished a strong 2nd. She was gaining on the winner and finished 6+ lengths clear of third. With the great Deputy Minister as her grandsire, she is bred to love a route of ground. Dallas Stewart knows how to handle a talented youngster and is having a fine meet. Brian Hernandez retains the mount.
Wagering Strategy: A win bet on #6, Exacta part-wheel: 6 over 1-2-3, small reverse on each
Fair Grounds Race 7 (4:24)
#9 TEXAS HILL (3/1) This 5yo gelding by Danehill has impeccable turf breeding and is a full brother to west coast turf SW Secret Garden. He faced some tough nuts on the lawn in CA early in his career. Texas Hill bounced around between barns with mixed success, and then had the good fortune to be claimed by Asmussen 3 starts back. He won both starts at Sam Houston over good claiming fields while carrying the Asmussen brand and is very well placed in this entry level allowance. Just as strong a play if the race comes off the turf.
Wagering Strategy: A win bet on #9 (turf or dirt)

Gulfstream Park
Gulfstream Park Race 3 (1:53)
#5 VICTORY ZONE (5/2) 5 yo Wild Zone gelding has scored back to back wins including first try over this Gulfstream surface last out while racing at today's distance. Was claimed out of that event by trainer Mike Mitchell who does a excellent job with his haltered horses winning at a clip of 25% first out. Mitchell brings back at same distance while moving up in class which is well within his reach as was facing much stronger at Arlington Park this summer. Gelding has turned in sharp half mile work at Palm Meadows since last and like the fact that Prado takes the call here.
Wagering Strategy: A win bet on #5, Exactas: 5-1, 5-4, reverse each for half as much
Gulfstream Park Race 4 (2:27)
#12 RICH BARONESS (12/1) 3 yo Double Honor filly made her debut last out going 5 1/2 furlongs at Calder for trainer Ed Plesa. Although took some money faded shortly after the break but can expect a much improved performance today for barn that almost always does better secont timeout. Will receive first lasix now while stretching out to a flat mile and filly will definitely appreciate the added ground. Will also benefit from the drop in class catching a soft group here. Has Plesa's patented mile work and the fact that Prado chose her to ride is a positive factor.
Wagering Strategy: A win and place bet on #12
Gulfstream Park Race 8 (4:37)
#3 RIGHT DADDY (6/1) 3 yo Yes It's True filly makes her debut for trainer Steve Klesaris who is more then capable of having one ready to fire at first asking. Filly was quite impressive in her works as a 2 yo at the sale last winter and is out of a speed mare who has produced eight winners including a multiple stake winner. Works have been quick over this strip in the a.m. and this owner/trainer scored with a first time starter last Saturday. C. Velasquez has the call.
Wagering Strategy: A win bet on #3, Equal exacta boxes: 2-3, 3-10, 3-12

Oaklawn Park
Oaklawn Park Race 2 (2:57)
#7 TWIXY (8/1) Trainer Donnie Von Hemel's strong suit is his ability to have young runners move forward once they begin showing signs of life. This 3 yo filly did just that when running 2nd in debut at Remington Park despite getting shuffled back along the inside down the backstretch. Draws a much better post this time around for operation that hits 30% with their runners making 2nd trip to post. Will have an honest pace to run at through the lane under jockey Don Pettinger.
Wagering Strategy: A win and place bet on #7
Oaklawn Park Race 8 (5:44)
#6 PAMPERED (10/1) Talented Peaks and Valleys 5 yo mare has faced far tougher company in the past then is being asked to handle today. True, she's coming off a 5 month extended vacation but veteran trainer Robert Holthus is one of the best at having his long term returnees ready to fire best shot right off the bench. Mare also benefits by going favorite distance over a racing surface where has traditionally benefited her type of running style. Has sparked in the a.m. and has John McKee back in the saddle.
Wagering Strategy: A win and place bet on #6

Santa Anita Park
Santa Anita Park Race 3 (4:32)
#1 TARASCON DILIGENCE (3/1) This gelding was on a tear in Florida before shipping here, winning 3 of his last 4 starts and finishing a clear 2nd in the other. He's a versatile runner who can win on the lead or from a stalking position, but he really cost himself any chance when away slowly and trailing his field Jan 12. He may have needed that race anyways off the 2-month layoff, and it also came against a very tough allowance field. He now drops considerably in class to face straight 4yo claimers, and high % trainer Jeff Mullins should be more familiar with him now as he makes his second start for that barn. I expect Tarascon to sit a good stalking trip and make his move into the stretch. Baze remains aboard and should get him away from the gate more cleanly.
Wagering Strategy: A win bet on #1, Exacta: 1-3, reverse for less, Smaller exactas: 1-5, 1-7, reverse each for less
Santa Anita Park Race 4 (5:04)
#6 BOOCFUSS (2/1) This colt has shown much potential in both career starts and I like his chances on turf or dirt against this modest looking field. He was bumped and steadied at the start of his debut but still rallied from far back to finish 4th in a fast, 'key' race from which the first and third place finishers returned to win their next starts. Boocfuss then returned Dec 10 and again rallied very well, this time up the rail, to finish a clear 2nd, ahead of a 3rd place finisher who returned to win his next start by 4 lengths. By top California sire Bertrando, Boocfuss is certainly bred to handle a route and turf, and he's also dropping from open company into the Cal-bred ranks. He shows six more works since his last race, including a blazing 5F bullet drill Jan 14.
Wagering Strategy: A win bet on #6, Trifecta: 6 over 1-4-5 over ALL = $24 for a $1 wager
Santa Anita Park Race 6 (6:07)
#10 JANE BLOSSOM (5/2) Jeff Mullins doesn't win at a high rate with first time starters, which makes this filly's debut win seem all the better. In that race she broke from outermost post 8 over a wet track, rated about 5 lengths off the leaders while wide for a quarter mile, then angled in to the rail before launching her bid in the stretch. She rallied inside of horses, which isn't something that first time starters usually do well, and then held her advantage through the final furlong in a great 'educational' race that also happened to result in a win. I expect her to move forward off that race, and Mullins posts much better stats with second time starters than with debut runners, winning at 24%. Jane Blossom should get an honest or fast pace to stalk and gets a big rider upgrade from an apprentice to Pat Valenzuela.
Wagering Strategy: A win bet on #10, Exacta: 10-2, reverse for half as much, Smaller exactas: 10-1, 10-5, no reverse

Tampa Bay Downs
Tampa Bay Downs Race 2 (12:51)
#4 SMILEWITHPLEASURE (8/1) Gray 5yo gelding moved to the Freddie Hyatt barn prior to his last start and got a great tightener in his first start since August. He pressed the issue into the stretch before drifting out while tiring. That was against a much tougher field of open claimers, several of which are in today's 8th race, and he was just edged for 4th by the favorite Geruase. The gray is well suited to the 7 furlong trip, is sitting on a big race and will appreciate the sharp drop in class into a conditioned claimer. Value play at 8-1 on the line.
Wagering Strategy: A win and place bet on #4
Tampa Bay Downs Race 8 (3:31)
#4 POPPA CORKY (5/2) 8yo is a real professional and, except when entered at an unsuitable distance or on an off track, has rarely run a bad race. He has 9 of his 13 career wins over this course and is in the best form of his long career. He destroyed a similar field at 7 furlongs and is even better at todays 6 furlong trip. The grandson of the great Alydar showed his devastating stretch kick when he came the final furlong in :12 flat last out. Reunites with Mata.
Wagering Strategy: A win bet on #4, Exactas: 4-6, 4-7, small reverse on each