Afleet Deal 9-2
My Man Sumo 5-1
Capt. Sparrow 6-1
Analysis. With not much early speed in the opener, Hastings shipper Afleet Deal makes his second start at Del Mar, with a switch today to Rosario off a Carava claim for today's $16k tag (21%W off claims). Most of these are below par runners and the two past-class types have questionable form. My Man Sumo exits a good race at the level where the 4YO gelding ran on the front and faded. He should revert today to his normal off-pace style and should be right there late. One of the class types on the drop with questionable form is Capt. Sparrow, claimed for $16k by Mitchell last out but claimed a number of times without success lately and his record in three attempts at Del Mar suggests he does not care particularly for this surface.
Play. Afleet Deal to win at 9-2 and exactas up & back with My Man Sumo and Capt. Sparrow.
Red Door Drive/Spurrier 7-2
Analysis. Informed returns from a long layoff under classified conditions for O'Neil and although the multiple Gr. 2 winner is no doubt preparing for better purses, the 6YO loves this Del Mar Polytrack, 2 for 5 with 2 seconds with strong speed figures. If he is ready for his B-race, Informed has a huge class edge that should tell and he gets a fast contested pace to aim at from off the pace.
The Baffert entry of Red Door Drive and Spurrier are the alternatives and either could win it if the top call disappoints.
Play. Informed to win at 3-1 and an exacta box, mainly on top, with the Baffert entry, or with either half if one scratcehs.
Dazzling Display 3-2
Tiz the Route 6-1
Tales in Excess 7-1
Analysis. Baffert's Dazzling Display looms a standout in this juvenile dash as a second starter already over par and projecting well above par with normal improvement. The filly does not need the lead if one of the firsters wants to blaze away early, always a consideration on this surface. Tiz the Route is a second starter but does not quite project to par with normal improvement for the minor Herrick barn with Pat V. aboard. Tales in Excess is one of several firsters with two positives and one negative among the sire, trainer, and workout criteria, with Tales of Excess showing just one sharp work in the long series, always a red flag.
Play. Dazzling Display to win at 3-2, a key bet.
Sebastian Flyte 4-1
Deputy Max 9-2
Spring Forth 6-1
Analysis. The English import Sebastian Flyte is the call in a below-par lineup of non-winners once other than maiden or claiming. Sebastian Flyte exits six straight graded or listed stakes where the colt has not been humbled by any means, all six at major tracks in Ireland and England. He warrants first call and may trigger a good exotic payoff, as all the other horses in the 7-horse field can be included underneath. Deputy Max not only finished in 23 4/5 at the level to be third a neck last out, but also made a middle move of 23 flat in the race, completing the final half mile in a strong 46 4/5 seconds. He is the main threa to the import and fits the NW1XMC allowances well enough, this the 4th effort at the level.
Spring Forth just beat maidens and has a chance for a share, as do all the others in this so-so spot.
Play. Sebastioan Flyte to win at 4-1 and an exacta box with Deputy Mas. Sebastian Flyte as a key to win in trifectas, with Deputy Max and Spring Forth to place, and the others added to show.
Can't Topper 3-1
Movie Duty 7-2
Analysis. Although Movie Duty exits a fast-fast race and is moving in the right direction for 3YOs of late summer and fall-upwards-that last race was the equivalent of a $12,500 claiming race. Can't Topper exits an allowance third by a half in similar time and has better to cycle back to. In her two most recent claiming starts, Can't Topper won both and has been very competitive under the allowance conditions. She deserves first call and the others do not look like threes on the move upwards.
Play. Can't Topper to win at 3-1 and an exacta box with Movie Duty. Those two to be one-two in trifectas, with the others added to show.
May Day Rose 2-1
Hey Maria 5-1
Analysis. It's Baffert again in a juvenile dash, with May Day Rose sticking out as a second starter that already has run the swifest and projects well above par with normal improvement. She wants the front apparently, but her pace figure is extra strong if anything else wants to contest early and it's only 5.5-furlongs. Hey Maria and Retail are the second starters that should improve five to seven lengths but even so that kind of improvement leaves them shy of par and behind the Baffert stickout.
Play. May Day Rose to win at 2-1, a key bet, and a key to win in trifectas, with Her Mari and Retail to place, and the others to show.
Dreamed to Dream 3-1
Sky Chant 9-2
Analysis. Dreamed to Dream drops out of a deceptively good effort against NW1XMC allowance turf routers, with a strong 29 flat final fraction. It's a drop & switch pattern, with the change from the injured Talamo to Bejarano, a positive pattern and the only time this filly was entered to be claimed, she won going away back on Jan. 30 at Gulfstream Park. She looks to have the class edge that so often dominates these 3YO claiming races going long.
Sky Chant and L'Enchanteresse ran one-two for Clm-$40 3YOs last out, with Sky Chant winning by a half and both fillies completing the final quarter in a good 23 3/5 seconds. The others do not finish fast enough.
Play. Dreamed to Dream to win at 3-1 and a key to win in trifectas, with Sky Chant and L'Enchanteresse to place, and the rest added to show.
Wickedly Perfect 7-2
Tell a Kelly 5-1
Analysis. In a difficult long sprint for the better juveniles, Wickedly Perfect exits a Gr. 3 win with a huge pace figure on this Polytrack and that pace figure can carry the cause in this sprint where several look competitive. Wickedly Perfect won the Gr. 3 from behind the pace by one lengths, a good sign in a spot where several may contest the front across a tough 7-furlongs. Avid is a second starter with a good combo of speed & pace and this filly went off in her debut at even-money and went wire to wire with a 23 1/5 turn-time, although the top pick has a 22 4/5 turn-time.
Tell a Kelly is the closer with the right style in a race loaded with early speed, notably at the 7f distance. She ran the turn for Sadler to beat maidens as a second starter last out in 22 4/5, moving from 7th by 5 1/2 to 3rd by 2 at the quarter pole. She has to be covered in the exotics for sure.
Play. Wickedly Perfect to win at 7-2 and a cold trifecta box among the three contenders.
Streakin' Mohican 9-2
Gallatin's Run 5-1
Italian Rules 6-1
Analysis. Nextdoorneighbor shortens from a 9f route with that 6f pace figure in the route that converts to a winning sprint figure. The route was the Gr. 3 Sham too, so the lightly-raced 3YO is down in class multiple levels and gets a switch to Bejarano. The colt beat maidens by four two back and was not ready for the Gr. 3 but is ready for this spot and may go at a decent price.
Streakin' Mohican exits a second by 1 1/4 in a Clm-$50 for 3YOs, but the race was rated fast-fast and the pace figure in particular was strong for the level, three lengths above par. The one-level drop by Hess is obviously for the win and this gelding is now 4 for 14 lifetime with 4 seconds at Northfields and Golden Gate. He fits here nicely. Gallatin's Run just beat maidens going away with a tons-improved speed figure on this Polytrack and any horse that wins like that at Del Mar is dangerous as a repeat possibility. Italian Rules looks next best but should be running for share.
Play. Nextdoorneighbor to win at 7-2 and a key to win in trifectas, with Streakin' Mohican and Gallatin's Run to place and the rest added to show.
No maiden dropdowns and no call here. Cover these bad horses in the serial wagers: Dancinconestreallas, Magic Lantern, Harmony's Hope, and Snovember, with the latter under Bejarano and making her second off a long layoff the one to beat.