Wizard Selections/Analysis for Aqueduct 01/29/2005

Aqueduct 01/29/2005

Advance Weather Forecast
Sunny; high 32; 5% chance of precipitation. Low 27.

Wizard's Crystal Ball:

#2 ABSOLUTE (Race 3) After a weak debut against MSW company this colt was dropped in against maiden claimers for his second start. The result was a dominant win at 13-1 Dec 19 in his first try over this track. He may not have liked a muddy track Jan 5 and was also facing much tougher company than he does today. Eligible to rebound at square price on class drop.

#2 DASL CAMMY (Race 5) This filly faced open company in the first 12 starts of her career and ran well in several races. She then got a trainer change to high % conditioner Scott Lake, who brought her to New York to face state bred company for her Dec 31 race. In that event she showed improved early speed to duel from the start, finishing a good 3rd. She then took a step forward in her Jan 15 race, where she stalked the pace and finished a clear 2nd to the heavily favored winner. She appears to be sitting on a top effort and will probably sit another good stalking trip off an expected speed duel. Switches to Migliore.

#7 MR. WHITESTONE (Race 8) With a ton of speed in this race this inner track lover can sit the right stalking trip. He posted a dominant win from off the pace when returning from a 2-month layoff Nov 5, but then on Dec 19 he was victimized by a speed bias in a race where the winner got loose on an easy lead through a relatively slow half mile pace pace. Mr. Whitestone flew home in the stretch that day, getting his final two furlongs in :11-1/5 and :11-4/5, but he was left with way too much to do. Since then he’s put in four more works over this track, and he appears set for a top effort in his third start off the short layoff.

Wizard's Notebook: This Saturday I'll be offering a special stakes package for the SUNSHINE MILLIONS. These are 8 stakes races, 4 at Gulfstream and 4 at Santa Anita, all run on Saturday afternoon and all open to California and Florida breds only. Last year this special card produced great racing and excellent value due to some large fields. I'll be offering race analysis and wagering strategies for all 8 of these races in one package for only $10.

EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE CONFIRM BEFORE WAGERING.

1^st AQU 6f Clm $25,000 4yo and up, Purse: $25,000. (12:30)/11:30/10:30/ 9:30
Exacta, Trifecta, Daily Double Wagers

# Horse ML   Wizard Comments

3 DRAW PLAY 5/2   Wheels back just 3 days after a very game win here. Dutrow won at a 27% rate on similar short rest last year and Draw Play had aluminum pads removed for his last race so he’s probably feeling great.

4 TARAKAN 3/1   Didn’t care for a route Jan 2 and also was poorly ridden when allowed to open up a huge lead through too fast a pace. He now drops in class, returns to sprinting, and gets a big positive change to Migliore.

7 STONG 7/2   Consistent 5yo has hit the board in 12 of 13 starts on dry tracks and should be closing late today.

2 FIGHTING ROY KELLY 8/1   Probable pacesetter from his inside post should offer big odds. Good speed rider.

2^nd AQU 6f MdnClm $35,000 3yo Fillies, Purse: $15,000. (12:58)/11:58/10:58/ 9:58
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, Pick 3 (races 2-4), Pick 4 (races 2-5) Wagers

# Horse ML   Wizard Comments

2 GODDESS OF LOVE 8/5   Gets a considerable drop in class from two races against much tougher MSW company. In her only prior start vs. maiden claimers she showed good speed and finished 2nd, 12 lengths clear of 3rd. That was also her last race around one turn, which she may prefer. She’s much better bred for sprinting.

3 SMOTHEREDWITHLOVE 3/1   Late runner has rallied from well off the pace to finish 2nd in her last 2 starts, each time rallying against a speed bias. She clearly likes the inner track, but her lack of speed hurts her chances.

4 JET'S VICTORY 6/1   Has dueled in both starts, most recently with the eventual 3-5 winner. Freshened since.

6 HISTORYINTHEMAKING 7/2   Rallied to finish 2nd in last two over the deep Calder track. Positive trainer change.

3^rd AQU 6f Clm $40,000 3yo, Purse: $33,000. ( 1:26)/12:26/11:26/10:26
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 (races 3-5) Wagers

# Horse ML   Wizard Comments

2 ABSOLUTE 6/1   Expected to rebound on a dry track with the drop in class. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!

6 GREENJAY 2/1   Versatile colt can lead or stalk and shows three works since finishing a good 2nd Jan 2, seven lengths clear of 3rd. He had to chase a front-running winner on a speed-biased track that day. Bullet work 1/27.

1A DIRECT CALL 3/1   Stalker should get a fast pace to rally into. Scott Lake wins at a 21% rate with new claims.

3 WHATEVERALOHAWANTS 8/1   Gutsy colt is 2 for 2 after wins at 9-1 & 13-1. He fought off 2 bids last time out.

4^th AQU 1 1/8m MdnSpWt 3yo, Purse: $42,000. ( 1:53)/12:53/11:53/10:53
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, Pick 3 (races 4-6), Pick 6 (races 4-9) Wagers

# Horse ML   Wizard Comments

1A WONFORJODI 2/1   Looks like the controlling speed in a field full of plodders. He ran very well when dueling for the lead all the way Nov 26, finishing a close 3rd. The 2nd place finisher from that race returned to romp in his next start. May have ‘bounced’ off that big effort Dec 15 but now adds blinkers and shows a huge work Jan 11.

8 BREEZE ON 4/1   Showed improved early speed Jan 7 in his first route start and ran better than appears for 3rd after breaking from terrible post 12. He also raced wide against an inside/speed track and front-running winner.

2 NORTHERN STORM 3/1   Lost by just 2-1/2 lengths despite taking up near the turn Dec 2. Good 3rd on Jan 17.

3 BOGGY CREEK DANCER 6/1   Had bad posts in his last two but still lost by just a head Dec 2. Good post today.

5^th AQU 6f Alw 4yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $43,000. ( 2:20)/ 1:20/12:20/11:20
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 (races 5-7) Wagers

# Horse ML   Wizard Comments

2 DASL CAMMY 5/2   Appears to be improving since the trainer change to Lake. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!

3 EVENING EDITION 3/1   Late runner should get a fast pace to rally into. She was gaining to the wire when a close 2nd last time out after a wide trip. However, this is her 10th start at this same allowance condition.

4 LADY KITTY KARSON 6/1   Wired her field at even money in her debut but was helped by an intense inside speed bias. She can improve second time out for hot trainer Bush, who’s won with 5 of his last 10 second timers.

8 MAIDEZ 4/1   Just 1 for 14, but she’s finished 2nd 5 times, including Dec 31, when she showed improved speed.

6^th AQU 6f Alw 3yo Fillies, Purse: $43,000. ( 2:47)/ 1:47/12:47/11:47
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 4 (races 6-9), Daily Double Wagers

# Horse ML   Wizard Comments

3 WHAT'S YOUR POINT 2/1   Stalker ran a winning race in each of her last two starts but fell just short each time. She missed by half a length Dec 30 while also finishing 5 lengths clear of 3rd, and today reunites with Migliore, who rode her that day. On Jan 13 she stalked the pace and rallied to miss by just a nose. Barn is going well.

1 WHATATROPHY RACK 6/1   Speedball gets the rail and is the one to catch. She blasted her maiden field in little more than a paid workout January 5, then returned 8 days later and led all but the final 40 or so yards.

5 ACEY DEUCEY 3/1   Versatile filly will probably stalk the pace today. She won gamely Oct 23, but then got a terrible ride Dec 30 off a short layoff. She was very wide on the turn that day against an inside biased track.

6 MISS GREENY 6/1   Overcame post 12 to score a daylight win Dec 5. May have ‘bounced’ Dec 30. Hot trainer.

7^th AQU 6f Alw 4yo and up, Purse: $43,000. ( 3:15)/ 2:15/ 1:15/12:15
Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 (races 7-9) Wagers

# Horse ML   Wizard Comments

9 EXPLOIT LAD 5/2   In a field loaded with speed this gelding should sit a perfect stalking trip, then pick up the tiring leaders in the stretch. He didn’t handle a wet track last out but prior to that won 2 of 3, with a close 2nd.

6 CITIZENSHIP 6/1   Another stalker who can sit the right trip. He’s hit the exacta in 4 of 5 over this track, including a good 2nd when closing into a fast pace Dec 29. He’s also hit the exacta in 4 of 5 at this trip. Bullet work.

5 RUBI ECHO 8/1   Mike Miceli has won with 3 of his last 7 new claims. Late runner should get the right set up.

2 KARAKORUM PATRIOT 10/1   One of several speed horses, but he’s dueled and won 3 of his last 4 on dry tracks.

8^th AQU 6f Non-graded 3yo and up, Purse: $75,000. ( 3:44)/ 2:44/ 1:44/12:44
Exacta, Trifecta, Daily Double Wagers

# Horse ML   Wizard Comments

7 MR. WHITESTONE 5/2   Should get the right set up in his third start off a layoff. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!

2 DON SIX 3/1   Ran a career-best race in his first start for Scott Lake Dec 19, winning the G3 Gravesend. He now shows 3 wins and 2 2nds from 5 starts over this track. However, he meets much other speed in this race.

8 PAPUA 6/1   Ran very well in the Gravesend, but like Mr. Whitestone, he couldn’t rally against a fast late pace.

5 LUCKY GAMBLE 12/1   Consistent runner can sit a good stalking trip and loves the inner track. Clear 2nd last out.

9^th AQU 1 1/16m Clm $20,000 4yo and up, Purse: $22,000. ( 4:12)/ 3:12/ 2:12/ 1:12
Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Wagers

# Horse ML   Wizard Comments

5 BUBBA SPARKS 3/1   Has speed to lead or sit just off the pace and make his move ahead of the closers. He’s won 3 of his last 6, including 1 of 2 lifetime starts for a claiming tag, and he switches to high % rider Migliore.

3 ACT OF REFORM 12/1   Late runner should get an honest pace to rally into if he’s ready off the 6-month layoff. He’s faced tougher through most of his career & returns for Contessa, who can win off a layoff. Likes this track.

7 IT'S SO SIMPLE 5/1   Gets his claiming price cut in half to the level of his big win Nov 14. Speed to lead or stalk.

9 MYSWEETHEARTS GONE 9/2   Must overcome a tough post but has speed and has won 2 of his last 4 starts.

Weekly Report For Racing Dates 1/17 - 1/21/05

Track profile/Bias Section

Running Style Designations:
(F)  Frontrunner - dictates the pace at every call.
(S)  Speed - generally one length or less from the lead. Contests orpresses the early pace.
(SC)  Short Closer - rates 'just off' the pace. Sometimes sits behind a speed duel, usually less than three lengths from the front. May also be termed a 'stalker'.
(C)  Closer - runs in mid-pack or further back, about 4 to 8 lengths off the lead.
(DC) Deep Closer - runs toward the back of the field and comes from 6 or more lengths behind.
NOTE: There will be instances when a particular running style was not dominant. When this occurs, two running styles are specified, with the most prominent style given first.
Bias Intensity:
(1) - Slight (2) - Significant (3) - Pronounced
NOTE: Occasionally you will see (+) after a bias. This denotes that the existing bias was nearly potent enough to attain the next level.

Track Bias Notes
Path: No path bias on any of the days on this racing week that was shortened when Saturday and Sunday's cards were cancelled due to a blizzard.
Running Style: Sprints continued to be ruled by speed, but routes played fairly to all running styles.

January 17th: SPRINTS: F/S(2) ROUTES: No bias PATH: No bias
January 20th: SPRINTS: F/S(1+) ROUTES: No bias PATH: No bias
January 21st: SPRINTS: F/S(1+) ROUTES: No bias PATH: No bias

Track profile glossary: 1 - Favoring; 2 - Bias; 3 - Severe bias

Horses to Watch
January 17th
A WILD MINUTE (Race 2): Caught a dry track for first time in career and nearly won at 40-1. Set a pressured pace, turned back the 3-5 favorite and held gamely to miss by just one length.
DEVIL'S DUST (Race 6): Big effort off 13-month layoff. Set the fastest half mile pace of any race on the card and held gamely for a close 2nd.
SUCCESSFUL AFFAIR (Race 9): Caught a dry track for the first time in his career while also trying a route for the first time. Rated in 7th and rallied wide against a slow pace to finish a good 2nd to the even money winner.
January 20th
TWO ZERO (Race 4): First time starter is a half to two stakes winners and ran better than appears. Set too fast a pace on the lead and tired in the stretch to finish 4th. Has much potential when learns to relax a little better.
GRADED BY RESULTS (Race 6): Pressed a fast pace while between rivals, put away the other three speed horses and did well to hold for 2nd, 3 lengths clear of 3rd.
January 21st
UNKNOWN VARIABLE (Race 2): Was best in this race but crossed the line 2nd after being squeezed back when trying to come through along the rail mid-stretch. Re-bid with a late surge, then was moved up to the win.
BLACK MARIAH (Race 7): Outstanding effort. Pressed a fast pace, put away the other speed, turned back another bid and stayed on gamely in the stretch for 2nd.
LOVING (Race 8): Rallied boldly against a slow pace, getting his final 5/16 of a mile in a very fast :30-2/5 to finish a clear 2nd. Seems back on his game.