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GULFSTREAM NOTEBOOK JANUARY 2, 2008 Looking ahead to 2008 Gulfstream by Steve Zacks The 2008 Gulfstream Park Race meeting opens on Thursday and runs until April 20. Over the 16 weeks, there is racing six days a week (until mid-March, when Wednesdays are dropped), Wednesday through Monday, and a first post at 12:50 p.m. (EST). This is a meet horse players point to during the early part of the year. It features many races for young developing sophomores and it is the scene where many recent Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup winners make their early season starts. Success at the meeting can be tricky; various barns approach the meeting with different agendas, some changing each year. However by paying attention to several things right from the get-go, one can often get a line on just what is going on. This might help you avoid some probable losers and may also provide clues to numerous winners at some very juicy mutuels. One can divide the meeting into three segments. The first is the forerunner segment prior to the running of the Sunshine Millions on January 26. During this segment one should not be surprised at any result. The prime-time boutique meet segment comes next and ends with the running of the Florida Derby (G1) on March 29, which is the heart of the meet. Finally, the pre-Calder segment rolls around when most of the winter shippers have vacated, save a few remaining horses for stakes or grass racing. Listed below are a series of questions you might ask yourself when approaching the Gulfstream races during the early part of the meeting. Once you have a line on the proceedings, you will be able to make the necessary adjustments as things begin to change. 1 -- Intent: Which stables and trainers are pointing to the Gulfstream winter meeting in 2008? With purses at Gulfstream lower than at some venues, it is important to ask the question as to which outfits are serious about winning races and which are using the meeting as a proving ground for the major spring meetings up north? A subset of this general theme is which outfits are loaded for bear and are intent on winning early in the meeting? Others may have planned an all-out assault throughout the meeting, while others still may need time for their runners and will be more effective as the meet progresses. Stables coming off hot meetings immediately prior to shipping may need time to regroup. Conversely, a stable coming off a sub-par previous meeting may have been just pointing for Gulfstream. Some steeds will be at Gulfstream mainly for rest and legging up with their major goals coming later in the year and elsewhere; others are there to win races immediately. Early identification of just who is hot and who is not, who is serious today and who is not, should return quick dividends. When a hot stable starts to cool or a cold one starts to warm up, the change in the winds can produce dramatic results if identified quickly. Unexpectedly good performances by longshots or poor performances by bet-down runners often provide the early clues to change. Sometimes additional clues are given by the placement of the horses and/or the recent preparation. Be alert to surprise performances in either direction and be prepared to adapt quickly; these often come in short performance cycles and may last for only a race or two over a day or two. If one or two horses from an outfit perform differently than expected, this may signal a change in trend for the short run or for the entire meeting. The winning player will be ready to react quickly; comparison of horses' preparation and performances from the same stable can point to forthcoming changes. 2 -- Where: Where (which tracks or circuits) are the winners coming from? Over the years, horses and stables coming from one circuit or track have fared somewhat better than others, particularly early in the meeting. More than the occasional surprising winner can be found during the meeting by paying attention to the source of previous winners, particularly if they did not last race at a major venue. With horses shipping in from all over the North and Midwest, it may pay a dividend or two to be aware of any shippers from lesser venues which are having better-than-expected success. 3 -- Which Surface: What surface did they run on last? As more and more venues switch to artificial surfaces, it might be worth paying attention to whether or not the surface over which a horse last ran is impacting the list of winners at Gulfstream. Del Mar, Arlington, Woodbine, Turfway and Keeneland are all Polytrack surfaces; Presque Isles and Golden Gate are Tapeta; Hollywood and Santa Anita are Cushion Track; then there are the varying dirt tracks. Are any of these surface types more dominant that others in producing winners at Gulfstream? 4 -- When: How recently did the winners race? This factor ties in with the track and surface factor particularly early in the meeting. In recent years, a recent race has lost some of its importance as a prime handicapping factor. Rested horses (31 or more days) are winning at a higher percentage than they did 20 or even 10 years ago. If layoff winners are in the ascendancy early in the meeting, the venue and surface of the last race could assume major importance. It may take two or more weeks for a recent Gulfstream race to be a significant factor. 5 -- How Long: How long has the horse been south? A significant factor to consider is temperature. Most horses do better shipping from warm to cooler temperatures than they do shipping from cold to warm. Their systems may take four-to-six weeks to adjust. One clue here is to check the work line and see how far back the first work in Florida came. If the particular horse in question does not show much of a work line, clues can come from knowledge of some of the other horses in the same stable, in terms of when they first worked or how the other horses from the barn have been running. Sometimes a turnaround performance from one horse in the barn might indicate that the others are adjusting and ready to start running better. 6 -- Where: Where are the winners currently training? With many of the nation's top outfits and horses spending the winter in Florida, there is an overflow of horses and the training is frequently split amongst Gulfstream, Calder and numerous training centers with Palm Meadows, Palm Beach Downs and Payson Park being other important local training venues. Many of the larger outfits are split amongst two or more of these local training centers. Most horses not stabled at the two tracks pay to stable at these training centers, just another factor to take into consideration when deciding upon "intent." A key clue to possible success is to pay attention to where a trainer has his horses stationed and if they are split up, does he or she have the better stock at one particular venue, or are the horses being pointed for early winning performances located at one or other of these venues. Bill Mott provides a perfect example of this phenomenon. For many years he has kept his top runners at Payson, occasionally shipping in for a work at Gulfstream or leaving the odd poor shipper there; for the most part his better runners and the majority of his winners have been located and trained over the deeper surface at Payson, north of Gulfstream; so too with Chris Clement. Todd Pletcher's horses win from multiple locations. No one knows what the program is for 2008 until it unfolds, but keeping on top of these types of details can produce winning bets and avoid losing ones! 7 -- Hot Outfit: Is the outfit hot here or elsewhere? Always pay attention to a hot barn! It is a productive source of pricey winners, especially early in the hot cycle before everybody else catches on. Some hot cycles are short-lived and some are meet-long. Some are merely local while others carry throughout the entire stable wherever they run horses. Often the best clues to a changing trend are when an unlikely runner or two runs better than his form suggests or when a logical horse or two, particularly a favorite, underperforms expectations; when either occurs, anticipate a change in trend. Some stables go on a tear from time to time, some do it at one track only and some stables do it at whatever track they run a horse for a period of time. Others send their ready runners to one particular venue and win at a high percentage, but perform at a subpar level at another. It might enhance returns to be aware how the stable is performing elsewhere; if a stable either gets hot or cools off at one venue, carefully watch the trend locally for a change. 8 -- Races for Florida-based horses: Is there a Calder-at-Gulfstream meeting? Do not lose sight of the fact that this is a Florida meeting and there are local horses to be looked after. A little more than a third of the meet's races will fit the local Calder horse population very well. Sure claiming shippers do come for the spoils, but the local runners regularly manage to win their share of the races. Is there any one clue to use as a guide? Well things change constantly and from year to year, but the best guide to success may be the fit horse that has not been racing throughout the year. The Tropical at Calder meeting is probably the highest class of the local Florida meetings and a horse with improving form and a start or two following a freshening may be the most likely to succeed at Gulfstream if he/she is sharp and in the right spot of course. Perhaps the past history of the meeting will repeat itself for many of the trainers, or perhaps there will be a few or many new trends established. We will endeavor to stay on top of some of these various trends in the Gulfstream Notebook every Wednesday morning. Stay tuned for only time will tell the story as it unfolds. Approaching the meeting with an open mind, reading between the lines, and staying right on top of current trends could prove the key to the vault especially if there is change in the air!
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