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GULFSTREAM NOTEBOOK FEBRUARY 6, 2008 by Steve Zacks Week Five in Review In Thursday's 7TH race, Shug McGaughey sent out Parading (Pulpit) to run a troubled third. Or at least, according to the race call, it sounded as if he was in trouble, when he was first checked and then steadied in the stretch run. Off that I would imagine he now appears on a number of "watch" lists courtesy of the race. There are a significant number of capable turf runners that need more or less perfect trips to win races. Many of them, however, possess a come-from-behind running style and while they have late power, they lack that instant acceleration or push-button response, which would allow them to spurt through holes as they appear. Thus they consistently find themselves in one sort of trouble or another. When these horses get an outside run or a clear pathway inside, they can get the job done, but they frequently seem to get into trouble often of their own making; once they get in gear and do not get clear sailing they are constantly checking themselves to avoid running up on heels; then they are steadied when a hole closes. The winner, SILVER WHISTLE (Alphabet Soup), is a similar type. Whether by design or accident, he swung out widest of all where his late run could be sustained unimpeded. The real difference between these two next time is that Parading will likely return in the same class and be bet down while Silver Whistle might be upped in class where his odds will be more favorable. Either can win their next start, but they'll probably need near-perfect trips to do so. Sometimes you will see two horses starting up at the same time and heading for the same place. One gets there first and the other may be in trouble depending upon the size of the opening. These are definitely the types about which suspicion is merited. Racing from the back, when many of the horses are trying to do the same thing at the same time, requires a degree of quickness and agility in combination with the ability to show a burst of speed. Without that instant acceleration, that late speed, often results in a trouble line. Be wary of horses that either earn a lot of checks and steadies in the comment line or charts. Very often there is a reason for it. Somehow or other, those with the ability to respond rapidly, seem to find the hole and get there...in spite of earlier troubles. If you are lucky enough to have sharp visual skills and you can detect a runner with the ability to respond to the rider, switch leads easily, slow down, speed up and quickly dive through an opening, you have found yourself the perfect horse to follow! And if he or she happens to have ability to go with that agility and athleticism, you are probably on to a horse with a good future. Another similar type of occurrence is the habitual slow starter that seems to get in trouble at the start of many races. You notice a lot of "off slow," "steady start" or "bumped" or "steadied early" in the comment line. Learn to distrust these types, particularly in races where getting into the race very early is essential. It may have become a habit; there may be a problem for this horse at the gate, either psychological or physical which lies at its root. Once you see it in consecutive races or on a regular basis, it almost makes sense to expect it again! *** If you read last week's Review, you will note that I paid the price for not betting a horse without the desired workouts in the Sunshine Millions sophomore filly sprint won by Dale Roman's American County (Gibson County). In Friday's 5TH race, Todd Pletcher ran impressive last-out winner Storming Off (Theatrical) as the logical 9-10 betting favorite. He was starting back in 25 days, almost a little bit quick for a Pletcher winner, and hadn't worked in the interim, but the colt had won his maiden race fairly easily and as a young and lightly-raced sophomore may have been up to the assignment. There was a big question in my mind about how to handle him. My own database has 107 Pletcher winners starting back within 30 days; 92 of these were back beyond 17 days and 87 of them had shown at least one work. While a repeat win was not out of the question, it still bothered me, in a race where a couple of others were probably almost as good as the favorite. Since I regarded Bill Mott as being on a hot streak and his runner CELESTIAL COMET (Smart Strike) had shown lots of promise before running a dull performance in the Tropical Park Derby (G3) (something quite a few runners seemed to do in that stakes), I was in a bit of a quandary. I gave the latter a chance to run back to or improve upon his best, and I had some suspicions about the Pletcher favorite. What to do? Had I not lost in a similar fashion last Saturday, the decision would have been a lot easier. Had the Mott been stabled at Payson, it might have been easier; but he had two recent works at Gulfstream and if there had been an "issue" to account for the poor performance I doubted that Mott would have been running him back. "Making the right judgments" is what being a winning player is all about. While 5-1 is not a big price, it is on Mott when on a good streak. The decision to make the play, pass the race or make a creative wager such as win bet and saver exacta is what you have to do well enough over time to come out ahead. Just because I lost the bet last week in a race that may not have been truly run, was no reason to toss out the results of hundreds of hours of work. If you are using good information (and your own should be the best and most reliable for you) that produces winners and a profit over time, do not second guess yourself when you have good reason to be positive on one and question another! Interesting Stats for Week Five Winners The following figures are taken from my personal data base.[occasional adjustments are made! The first figures are for this week's races. The following number in [square brackets] is the figure for the meet to date. Number of Races this Week: 56 races [270]. Winners: Ran Last At: Calder -- 10 [95]; Aqueduct -- 2 [21]; Churchill -- 3 [24]; Gulfstream -- 29 [55]. Winners: Stabled At: Gulfstream -- 21 [99]; Calder -- 14 [82]; Payson Park -- 5 [13]; Palm Beach Downs -- 1 [9]; Palm Meadows -- 14 [62]. Winners: Days Since last Race: within 14 days -- 10 [34]; 15-30 days -- 19 [89]; 31-90days -- 17 [115]; 91+ days -- 9 [17]; first-time starters -- 1 [10]. Winners: Re Their Works: worked since last race -- 40 [190]; worked 6 furlongs or farther -- 4 [16]; one work of at least 5 furlongs -- 20 [87]; worked within five days -- 5 [57]; either six or seven days before the race -- 15 [67]. Winners: In Shape: Using at least one up-close call in the preceding start as a sign of being in shape -- 33 [166]; repeaters -- 12 [39]. Winners: Running Style: Early (within two lengths at either or both of the first two calls, sprint or route) turf -- 5 [21] of 28 [81]; dirt -- 27 [147] of 126 [189]. Winners: Surface Changes -- 8 [39]; off artificial surfaces -- 2 [11]. Winners: Class Changes: numbered -- 34 [170]; dropped -- 19 [115]; rose -- 15 [55] (last-out winners: 12; 11 rose, 1stayed the same and 0 dropped in class!); (msw to mcl --5 [11]; drop from stake -- 3 [19]). Winners Distance Changes: 25 [101]; shortened up -- 10 [49]; stretched out -- 15 [52] (a furlong or more and/or added or dropped a turn). DAILY REVIEW WEDNESDAY (1/30) It was a quiet day with eight claiming races and one small-field sophomore non-winners of one other than allowance. There were three winners returning from six-month layoffs. They were in lower-level claimers and the preparation could be best surprised as modest. They paid between 7-2 and 11-1. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Dirt track was fast and the turf was firm with the rail at 48 feet. Saving ground was the key to several of the day's turf wins; both speed and closers were able to win. It would appear that being up close was advantageous on the dirt, but considering the low odds for most winners, it may have been that the logical horses were enjoying themselves. The one price winner on dirt was returning from a lengthy absence but did fit in the race if she showed up in her first start for her new trainer after a trainer switch. The bomb on turf was making his second start on the surface and had run well enough to be considered as at least a possibility. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Jose Rivera II won two races. Nine trainers won a race. DAILY REVIEW THURSDAY (1/31) Final day of January saw more non-claiming events than those for claimers -- a refreshing change! One of the allowance races was actually written for three-year-olds and up; two sophomores ran, with one finishing second. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Turf was firm and the rails were again in the 48-foot position. Saving ground was beneficial to several of the winners and stretch power was crucial to all; this is nothing unusual. The dirt was fast and being in proximity to the pace seemed once again to be the order of the day. That said, most of the winners on dirt made sense to the public, so they were the logical horses. What the riders elect to do is as much a part of the track tendency or bias, as is the match-up of the individual race. By studying charts and replays and watching races as they develop (as opposed to specifically watching the horse that carries your hopes), you can get to see which riders like to place their horses forwardly and which like to save. Some behave differently on the various surfaces. Some ride every race the same way. Some always try to save ground. Some always try to save horse for the latter stages. By understanding what certain riders are likely to do, you might get a different perspective on the track surface itself. And if you spot a rider who is consistently trying to find the rail, you might just find that you are tuned in to future plays when you see that that rider is aboard a long shot that has a legitimate chance to win with the right trip! Trainers and Jockeys of Note Eddie Castro and Kent Desormeaux each won a pair; Eibar Coa and Jose Lezcano, the second- and third-place riders in the standings, each won one race. On the trainer list, Nick Zito garnered a victory to move into a tie for second in the standings. Mott won his sixth race of the meeting and gives the impression that he is in the midst of a roll. The Hall of Famer enjoyed a great Sunshine Millions Day with a trio of victories for the big money and if you consider that the two in California were trained in Florida, he fits the hot-trainer model to a T. The recently hot Danny Hurtak notched his fifth win of the meet and Ed Plesa Jr. recorded his fourth. DAILY REVIEW FRIDAY (2/1) Once again non-claiming events outnumbered those of the claiming variety, and there were some more interesting performances on the day. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf The turf course was rated as firm with the rails at 48 feet. Late speed was definitely an asset as all three winners made their winning runs in the stretch drive. While wide moves are frequently the kiss of death on both surfaces, it does pay to note whether the horses making them are more or less in hand when doing so or are being driven when out there. It would seem that racing wide comfortably has far less of a negative impact on the overall performance than does a similar move when being asked. The former will sustain their moves and lose little ground relative to the front, whereas the latter types seem to fade and often drift into oblivion as they straighten into the stretch. The dirt track was fast and there were a number of fast-paced races. It would seem that the inside was, if not favorable, certainly not a negative. However, it was possible to rally from off the pace and on the outside of others if the move was properly timed. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Pletcher won one race, with Edgar Prado aboard, and there were a couple of gate scratches in that race, including Johnny V's (Velazquez). However, the winner ran impressively enough to merit a horse of interest comment below. Both David Fawkes and Joe Orseno won for the fifth time of the meeting. Each winner was well-respected at the windows, providing for a $6.80 early daily double. Mott won two on the day to continue the hot streak. Of some interest is the fact that the three recent winners have been stabled at this track and not up at Payson Park. The currently hot Desormeaux won four on the day to move into a tie for third in the standings. He managed to beat the leading rider, Velazquez, for three of those wins! Horses or Races of Interest There were a number of winners on the day that look to be capable of carrying on, if properly situated, in their next starts. HOLD THAT PROSPECT (Hold That Tiger) has been in sharp form for Fawkes and scored her second consecutive win at the meeting when romping by seven lengths in the 1ST race. She looks to have this kind in her sights, so unless she runs into a dropping tiger, she should be heard from again. Pletcher sent out a second-time starter, the three-year-old colt SLEUSE (Grand Slam), to a handy victory off an eight-month absence. Interestingly, Velasquez was to ride another that would up being scratched after breaking through the gate with another runner before the start. Sleuse pressed an honest pace and drew off under little pressure. Considering he ran only two ticks slower than the older non-winners of three other than later in the day, and that he was in hand and they were driving, he probably can do some damage later on. He should stretch out without any problems. Mott's Celestial Comet dropped out of the Tropical Derby into an entry-level allowance on grass. He was good enough to overcome a troubled start and run by an odds-on Pletcher last-out winner, turning in a quick final fixe-sixteenths. It was an improved performance fromfor him and if he continues in the right direction, Celestial Comet could have a future. As a son of Smart Strike, he has the right paper to develop into something better. DAILY REVIEW SATURDAY (2/2) A Grade 1 and a Grade 2 stakes, two allowances and a maiden special made for an interesting day of racing. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf The turf was firm and the rails were again set at 48 feet. Late closers were getting the best of things, though. Saving ground was beneficial. If a horse was good enough, he or she could win from close to the pace. Once again, the dirt track seemed to play quite fair. While on-the pace runners did win more of the races a couple of stretch runners were able to come from multiple lengths behind the pace. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Ken McPeek performed the hat trick, winning with his last three starters of the day. There was no consistency to the winning approach: class changes, surface changes, jockey changes, layoff and recently raced, fast works, slow works and no works at all. But they all made sense to the public as none paid more than $10. Coa won two to keep his hold on second. Desormeaux continued his hot run with a couple of victories; it could have been three, but for an accidental whip incident. Horses or Races of Interest Not certain whether DAAHER's (Awesome Again) failure in the Donn H. (G1) should have any significance beyond the race itself. There is no doubt that he is a talented racehorse when doing his thing, but it is still unclear as to whether that means traveling beyond a mile and one turn at this time. Time will provide more information. If Dubai was at the back of their minds, then this might be treated as a set-up race. SPRING AT LAST (Silver Deputy) garnered the win in a decent time after pressing solid fractions, but it is questionable that, after looking over the field, whether this race was of true Grade 1 status. Time will tell a lot more about a lot of these runners. Had Daaher handled the field easily, the Donn could have provided a springboard to an exciting future match-up with Curlin (Smart Strike), but Daaher will have to show a lot more if he is to set that stage. Afterward, McLaughlin said he had no explanation for the performance, other than the possibility of Daaaher displacing his pallet, which he's done before. We'll see if he can bounce back next time. EATON'S GIFT (Johannesburg) was back in form in the Swale S. (G2), setting strong early fractions before taking off to widen his margin in the stretch and win by 3 1/2 lengths. Romans suggested after the race that he was rushed a bit to make the CashCall Futurity (G1) at Hollywood back in December (in which Eaton's Gift finished seventh), and he expects Eaton's Gift to run even better next time when he tries a two-turn test. The sophomore colt is interesting to say the least. Allowance winner LING LING QI (Yonaguska) is also worth a look. The three-year-old colt ran to modestly slower fractions and after coming way too wide entering the stretch where he lost some momentum and lengths, finished in good time. The McPeek runner may have distance limitations, but he merits respect next time if not asked to do too much. DAILY REVIEW SUNDAY (2/3) There was nothing spectacular in the way of excitement, but there was an almost minor upset in the now-disputed Suwannee River H. (G3). The winner did not carry weight after the riders' up call, and that is supposedly a mandatory rule of racing. The connections of runner-up La Dolce Vita (Quiet American) believe the winner, GREEN GIRL (Fr) (Lord of Men), should be disqualified from the victory. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Fast and firm were the order of the day. The rails were at 48 feet. I saw both surfaces as playing to the race match-up and rider tactics more than anything else. Horses won from all over the surfaces and most made sense -- depending on where one placed the emphasis in his handicapping. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Mott continues on a roll winning another; his total is now nine. Zito won with a repeater to tie for the lead with 11 victories. Desormeaux continues in a zone winning another pair. Coa is inching closer to Velazquez in the riders' race. DAILY REVIEW MONDAY (2/4) An interesting race card though not long in quality, with two maiden specials and two conditioned allowances on the card. As you will see below there have been some interesting developments on the week in the trainer and jockey races. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Track was fast and the turf was firm with the rails at 48 feet. Once again we saw horses coming from a variety of places both in terms of paths and position on both surfaces, with only one winner paying more than $20 over the fair running surfaces. Once again, the way I evaluate these things, the outcomes were decided by the horses and their jockeys, and not by the racing surface itself. 'Tis a difference of opinions that make horse racing go! Trainers and Jockeys of Note On the day, the duo of Mott and Desormeaux had the hat trick! They were both the hot-ticket items on the week! Mott is now atop the trainer list with an even dozen victories overall, seven this week. Peter Walder and Zito (three) are next with 11 apiece. Pletcher and McPeek (also a strong week with five wins) round out the top five with 10 wins each. Velazquez remains atop the list with has 31 victories atop the jockey standings. Coa is next with 29. Desormeaux won 13 last week to move into third spot with 27. Trujillo has compiled 21 and is followed by Lezcano with 20. Cornelio Velasquez and Prado are just behind the top five in the standings. The top seven are winning more than 50 percent of the meet's races! In this opinion, Johnny V is not getting enough live mounts! Desormeaux is riding about as well as he can this week; I still see Lezcano as doing all the right things on his live mounts, but he is not a high-profile name and is not getting the cream. If he keeps riding at the same level he will bring home some nice-priced winners or spruce up some of the vertical exotics by hitting the board with some long shots. Leading Turf riders: Desormeaux -- 12; John Velazquez -- 10; Coa -- 7; Lezcano -- 7; Prado -- 7; Trujillo -- 7; Velasquez -- 7. Horses or Races of Interest: Race 7 for older turf-routing claimers saw a slow pace turn into a mad stretch dash for the wire. SPIDER POWER (Ire) (Royal Applause [GB]) won, but runner-up Tiger Woodman (Woodman) also turned in a strong late performance off the snail-like pace. Both could be even more dangerous if spotted in races with some early pace prospects therein. ALAAZO (A.P. Indy), from the red-hot Mott stable and ridden by the red-hot Desormeaux, showed himself to be a most promising sort. It was not that he ran so fast, but more the fact that he made a superlative appearance on the race track and was so tractable and professional considering he was racing for only the second time. He almost appeared to be getting schooled in the race, and it would appear that there is a lot more to this one. How he handles faster paces and better horses remains to be seen, but he could be a price stepping up in class next time. It is a rare day when one sees a six-furlong move at Payson Park, well known as a deep and tiring surface. The fact that Alaazo worked those six furlongs only five days before the race sent a strong signal to those of us who pay attention to those things. And in case you are interested, Mott does use longer works with some degree of regularity, though they more frequently come on turf. Mott sent this one from Saratoga to Monmouth to win his first outing going two turns, doing just what he had to do. He went a mile; had he stayed at Saratoga (if memory serves correct and a quick scan of the charts suggests, there were no two-turn races at the Spa for two-year-olds even late in that meeting), he would have to run at a shorter distance. Those who focus on numbers had difficulty in making this runner a player today, even though one had to project significant progress into today's performance -- hence the 9-2 price.
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