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ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN MARCH 11, 2005 by James Scully Everything was going perfectly on Saturday afternoon at Churchill Downs. A near-record crowd filled with celebrities, great hats and mint juleps had come out under ideal weather conditions to enjoy the first Kentucky Derby (G1) in the newly renovated facility. Then a bomb named GIACOMO (Holy Bull) dropped. A torrid pace set up his late rally, but few could imagine the conclusion. Giacomo had lost five straight starts since breaking his maiden last October and was exiting an unplaced finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). This year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) illustrated perfectly how young horses can rapidly improve in a short period of time. Giacomo wouldn’t have been a factor if the race had been held April 7 instead of May 7. He wasn’t good enough then, but the Kentucky-bred colt blossomed in the weeks preceding the race for trainer John Shirreffs. “Giacomo as a two-year-old was a little immature physically,” Shirreffs said. “Everything sort of snapped into place for him...He came out of the Santa Anita Derby so well. Then he worked well for the Kentucky Derby.” We’ve seen it before. Charismatic won the first two legs of the Triple Crown after losing to $62,500 claimers at Santa Anita in January, 1999. War Emblem, who got drubbed in multiple starts at the Fair Grounds over the winter, came practically from nowhere to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness S. (G1) in 2002. Giacomo is in the same class because his form earlier this year wasn’t important. A confirmed closer like Monarchos, Giacomo raced at two and had three preps this year including a start in April. His upset reinforces the three major Kentucky Derby trends, and there’s added ammunition to their validity given the number of notable failures this year. BELLAMY ROAD (Concerto), who was hailed as a potential super horse and favored at 5-2, had only two starts this year and finished seventh. We witnessed the same thing with Horse of the Year Point Given, who probably should have won the Triple Crown but attempted the Kentucky Derby off only two preps and finished fifth. He went on to dominate the rest of the year with victories in the Preakness, Belmont S. (G1), Haskell Invitational H. (G1) and Travers S. (G1). Bellamy Road will also probably return to top-class form as the Kentucky Derby turns out to be an aberration. The favorite’s stablemates, HIGH FLY (Atticus) and NOBLE CAUSEWAY (Giant’s Causeway), each tried to win the Kentucky Derby off a five-week layoff and wound up 10th and 14th, respectively. They both remain top threats for the remaining legs of the Triple Crown. GREELEY’S GALAXY (Mr. Greeley), the lone starter without two-year-old experience, crossed the wire in 11th. HIGH LIMIT (Maria’s Mon) and WILKO (Awesome Again) were also probably short horses with only two starts this year. Trainers Nick Zito and Todd Pletcher both downplayed the established trends before the race, and I’m not saying that there are any absolutes because all horses are different. CLOSING ARGUMENT (Successful Appeal) ran a big race to be second off only two races this year, but he still failed to win. How could an owner with any awareness of the last 50 years of Kentucky Derby history allow his/her trainer to race their horse only twice at three prior the Kentucky Derby or train their horse into the race off a lengthy layoff? Getting a horse to the Derby is one-time thing, but the goal is to cross the finish line first and all winners seem to share these common traits. Trainers who attempt to bring their young horses into the Kentucky Derby under different circumstances create a much bigger margin for error. The Preakness is next. Giacomo's 100 BRIS Speed rating is very low for a Derby winner and his late running style doesn’t appear suited for Pimlico. However, Charismatic and War Emblem both moved forward two weeks later following a surprising victory under the Twin Spires, and Giacomo might do the same.
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