|
|
CLASSIC DIARY NOVEMBER 4, 2009 by James Scully In this final diary, I'll give my analysis and selections for the Classic (G1) and Dirt Mile (G1) on Saturday, and the Marathon on Friday. All three races will feature a strong international presence, especially the Marathon where the Americans appear to have very little chance, and the lowest-priced morning line favorite in the 14-race Breeders' Cup program is Irish raider MASTERCRAFTSMAN (Ire) (Danehill Dancer), who is listed at 6-5 in the Dirt Mile. CLASSIC The major storylines in this year's Classic involve the first two choices on the morning line. RIP VAN WINKLE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) is the fearsome invader from Europe, where he ranked second only to Sea the Stars, and the Irish star is so good that he knocked a serious Classic contender, stablemate and multiple Group 1 hero Mastercraftsman, to the Dirt Mile. An outstanding winner of the Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) in his last outing, Rip Van Winkle will attempt to give Coolmore and Aidan O'Brien their first Classic victory. The three-year-old colt looks like the likely favorite in the wagering, but ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) is the slight morning-line choice at 5-2, and the outstanding mare will be the sentimental favorite for many Thoroughbred racing fans. Thirteen-for-13 in her distinguished career, the unbeaten champion will pursue unprecedented glory in her first start against males (no filly or mare has won in 25 runnings of the Classic). Zenyatta likes to put on a show with her antics in the paddock and post parade, but the gigantic five-year-old is all business on the track. She's a late-running dynamo for John Shirreffs. I'll give a brief mention to six horses that aren't in my top three -- a pair of Triple Crown race winners, a couple of turf stars and two up-and-coming runners in royal blue. Belmont S. (G1) hero SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone) will enter the Classic on the upswing, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and Travers S. (G1) in his last two outings, and his 112 BRIS Speed rating last time merits serious respect. However, the late-starting sophomore recorded nine workouts over the Pro-Ride last fall/winter before being sent from trainer John Sadler's barn to Tim Ice, who debuted the chestnut in March at Oaklawn Park. Sadler is as sharp as they come out West and if he felt that the talented colt was better suited to the dirt, we're inclined to doubt Summer Bird on the Pro-Ride. Kentucky Derby (G1) upsetter MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) also doesn't appear to be at his best over Santa Anita's synthetic oval. He was no factor in the Goodwood S. (G1) earlier in the Oak Tree meet and finished last in the 2008 Juvenile (G1). Turf notables EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) and GIO PONTI (Tale of the Cat) are both eligible to outperform our expectations. Einstein captured the Santa Anita H. (G1) in March and will enter the Classic fresh for Helen Pitts-Blasi, finishing a good second in the Pacific Classic (G1) last time. He's a hard-hitting seven-year-old who loves the 1 1/4-mile distance. Gio Ponti is another accomplished 10-furlong runner, easily scoring in the Arlington Million (G1) and Manhattan H. (G1) at the distance this summer, and displayed a tremendous finishing kick over the Pro-Ride when capturing the Sir Beaufort S. (G3) last December. The Christophe Clement colt will be running late under Ramon Dominguez. REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor) and GIROLAMO (A.P. Indy) are extremely promising for Godolphin and could be major contenders when the Classic returns to dirt in 2010, but we can't get excited about their chances this year. The former is more accomplished, winning the Super Derby (G2) and U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) this season, but he ran poorly over the Pro-Ride last fall and is a serious question mark at the Classic distance. The sky is the limit for Girolamo, who has registered three smashing wins since returning to the races this year in August, but the untested phenom has never tried two turns or a synthetic track.
2nd -- TWICE OVER (GB) (Observatory) doesn't own the lofty reputation of fellow European Rip Van Winkle, but the English invader is a 10-furlong specialist who will enter the Classic in excellent condition for Henry Cecil. Runner-up in the 2008 Champion S. (Eng-G1) to Epsom Derby (Eng-G1) hero New Approach, Twice Over turned in a couple of solid efforts earlier this year, falling less than a length short in the Prince of Wales's S. (Eng-G1) and Lockinge S. (Eng-G1), before receiving a freshening in early July. He returned from the short rest in sharp form, winning two races prior to a half-length success in the 2009 edition of the Champion, knocking off a notable group of rivals in the about 1 1/4-mile test. It was a career-best performance for the improving four-year-old. We like getting value with Europeans in the Classic, and Twice Over will probably be higher than 10-1. Arcangues won the 1993 edition at 133-1, and 1990 runner-up Ibn Bey (GB) was 38-1. Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator, the 1-2 finishers last year, were 13-1 and 19-1, respectively. Cecil knows how to prepare his horses for the international trip, finishing in the money with three of six Breeders' Cup starters, including Dushyantor at 58-1 in the 1998 Turf (G1). The Juddmonte homebred reportedly made a terrific appearance when visiting Santa Anita's track for the first time on Monday morning, and Twice Over rates as a very live longshot. 3rd -- Tabbing RIP VAN WINKLE and ZENYATTA as co-third selections is arguably a cop-out, but I didn't want to leave them out of our top three. Rip Van Winkle deserves ultimate respect, but he's never won past a mile and has battled some physical issues this season for O'Brien. At short odds, there's no guarantee he'll handle his first start on a synthetic track. Zenyatta is at her best on the Pro-Ride, but she hasn't registered a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating this year and figures to be overbet in this daunting spot. Longshot -- AWESOME GEM (Awesome Again) passed a lot of rivals to finish a non-threatening third in the 2007 Classic, and the six-year-old gelding will enter this year's event in good condition for Craig Dollase, registering a 1 1/4-length decision in the Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2) last out. He's a two-time Grade 1 runner-up on synthetic tracks, and 10 furlongs is his best distance. Awesome Gem looms as a potential gimmicks crasher at long odds. DIRT MILE After appearing on course for the Classic, MASTERCRAFTSMAN was redirected to the Dirt Mile by O'Brien, and the Irish-based colt looks like a standout over his nine rivals. 1st -- MASTERCRAFTSMAN reeled off consecutive wins this year in the Irish Two Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) and St. James's Palace S. (Eng-G1) before dropping a pair of decisions against Sea the Stars in the Juddmonte International (Eng-G1) and Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1). The gray colt still managed to place in both spots, finishing second by a length in the former, and he rebounded from those respectable setbacks with a confidence-building victory in a Group 3 event last time, showing an affinity for synthetic with a five-length decision over the all-weather track at Dundalk. Saturday's eight-furlong distance is the perfect fit for the champion juvenile, who should receive a ground-saving trip from his rail post, and Mastercraftsman figures to be along in time. 2nd -- MIDSHIPMAN (Unbridled's Song) was the only front-running winner over the Pro-Ride in last year's Breeders' Cup, cruising to a 1 1/4-length tally in the Juvenile (G1), and appeared to have all the physical tools to win the Kentucky Derby in 2009. However, the Godolphin colt missed most of his three-year-old campaign due to injury, making his belated return in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance/optional claimer at Belmont Park on September 18. Even though chestnut drew clear to a 3 1/4-length decision that afternoon, there are still legitimate concerns about fitness in his second start back. He'll be re-united with Garrett Gomez, the best big-money jockey in U.S. racing, and Midshipman will probably try to take his rivals all the way on the front end. 3rd -- BULLSBAY (Tiznow) is a two-time winner on the all-weather tracks, but the Whitney H. (G1) victor appears more comfortable on dirt. However, the Graham Motion runner received a favorable draw in post 3 with regular rider Jeremy Rose, and he's capable of grabbing a minor award here based on class alone. Longshot: NEKO BAY (Giant's Causeway) has class concerns in this spot, but the improving late runner has posted BRIS Late Pace ratings of 118 and 113 in his last two outings and is a potential bomber for the exotics under Mike Smith. MARATHON The Marathon was extended to 1 3/4 miles this year, and four of the 10 runners are international shippers. I expect them to sweep the top two spots and won't be surprised to see a Euro trifecta.
3rd -- CLOUDY'S KNIGHT (Lord Avie) was added to the Marathon mix after returning from 12-month layoff with a pair of recent Grade 3 wins, and we have a ton of respect for trainer Jonathan Sheppard. The nine-year-old gelding probably isn't good enough to challenge for it all, but he's a contender for a minor award given his strong present form. It will be a great story if he somehow posts the upset under Rosemary Homeister Jr. Longshot -- MAN OF IRON (Giant's Causeway) lacks the credentials of the top Europeans in the field, but the half-brother to Belmont S. (G1) winners Rags to Riches and Jazil exits an encouraging victory over the synthetic track at Dundalk and is trained by O'Brien. Give him a chance to run well in his U.S. debut.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
