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CHURCHILL DOWNS NOTEBOOK NOVEMBER 13, 2009 by Frank Cotolo The first full week of the Churchill fall meet is in the books. From November 4 through November 8 there were 50 races added to the single card that opened the meet on November 1, where there were 11 races. As it turned out that one card on opening day sent up some flairs, as we suspected, about some trends during the brief meet. These items covered most topics, including successful shippers and trainers. One of the surprising elements -- as far as surface-to-surface handicapping is concerned -- was that horses with their most recent races on Polytrack were showing remarkable success running back on Churchill dirt. Keeneland shippers offered five wins on opening day and came back with 17 over the course for the first full week of programs. Turfway Park shippers won seven in all six days and Arlington ponies went to the winners' circle twice. It was an uneven but standard week for the public. On November 10 there was not one choice getting a win. Then only two won the next two cards. On the 10-race card for November 7, though, eight betting choices helped the public's win percentage and the week closed with four winning on the November 8 program. Counting the first day as part of the week, the public hit 30 percent of the time. For only the five days in the first week, the public was more on par with 32 percent victories. TRACK STATS On the dirt there was a minor bias for horses coming from off the pace, with those horses being close to the leader getting home the most. Twenty of the winners came from the outside posts, 8 to 12. Few of those winners, however, came from out of the clouds. Most outside starters got into the top three early to win. This puts a greater emphasis on being close to the pace than starting from the outside. Racing on the grass appeared similar regardless of distance. That is, being up front early made winning easier. Horses closing wide from well off the pack won only two grass races out of eight. TRAINERS As expected, trainer Dale Romans has his stock in fine fettle as he attempts to defend his title as top trainer at Churchill. It was a great week for Romans, who had five winners on the track the first full week and won a Breeders' Cup event with his juvenile filly Tapitsfly (Tapit). His win average going into the second week is 41 percent. Steve Asmussen had a decent week with three winners, and Ian Wilkes, George Arnold and Paul McGee each recorded a winning pair. Another tip we mentioned in the first CD Notebook about watching first-time starters sent to post by Eddie Kenneally paid off as he had another debut winner during the five-card week. Also producing first-time winners were Lynn Whiting and Phil Jones. UPCOMING STAKES The weekend feature is Saturday's Mrs. Revere S. (G2) for sophomore fillies. The 1 1/16-mile event is on the turf with a purse of $175,000. Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup S. (G1) winner HOT CHA CHA (Cactus Ridge) heads the field, followed by another Grade 1 victress, MISS WORLD (Bernstein). The crowded field, however, is loaded with talent beyond those two. KEERTANA (Johar) defeated Hot Cha Cha in last year's Regret S. (G3) over the course and is the beaten favorite of the second division of the Valley View S. (G3) on the yielding turf at Keeneland. MISS KELLER (Montjeu [IRE]) will also be out for blood in her third U.S. start after running second in that division of the Valley View. One we have our eye on is WAR KILL (War Chant), who is stretching out on the green. Two races ago she won the Beaumont S. (G2) and is an improving filly who could be given higher odds in the Mrs. Revere than she has ever had. She could very possibly steal the race if let loose on the lead and considering that being on top or close to the pace on the Churchill grass is an advantage. HORSES TO WATCH Wednesday (11/4) 2ND -- IFTHESHOEFITS (Minardi) is a Hawthorne shipper who was speedy, holding well to the end at 11-1. 3RD -- FAR TRAVELER (Forest Camp) delivered a fine first appearance at six panels, dueling early at 10-1 and finishing third. Thursday (11/5) 5TH -- VEIL OF TEARS (Distorted Humor) was just beaten on the grass but should not miss on the green again soon. 6TH -- DRESS IN DUBAI (E Dubai) was all out, seemed over-classed but game, leading, dueling and still finishing second at 40-1. 7TH -- SODA JERK (Smarty Jones) got into an early duel that cooked him and gave the win to a 98-1 first-time starter. Friday (11/6) 2ND -- BOBBY B. GOODE (Songandaprayer) is a Keeneland shipper who loved Churchill this time out, winning with a rare-for-the-week wire-to-wire effort for Romans. A definite bet back. 4TH -- DRINKININTHEROOM (Songandaprayer) raced well from post 10, going right to the front three wide and battling the pressure well at 4-1. Saturday (11/7) 2ND -- THUNDERING JILL (Thunderello) loves Churchill and led, though very wide out of the 10 post, to be a big threat at 25-1. Quite a performance after a layoff. 10TH -- INDIANAPOLIS (Brz) (Nedawi) was unseen early on the turf and made one gigantic, impressive run late. Sunday (11/8) 3RD -- TREASURE HUNTER (Storm Cat) put in a fine effort at 13-1, losing a tough challenge that could have gone either way.
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