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BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY PREVIEWS
The Marathon is the first of eight Breeders' Cup races on Championship Saturday and there appears to be very little pace in the 11-horse field. We will make a case for the speed from the rail. 1ST -- BIRDRUN should flash to the front at the break and slow the pace down. He led wire to wire in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap three starts back, scoring by 3 3/4 lengths over Classic competitor Drosselmeyer, and netted a 105 BRIS Speed rating for the effort. In fact, the Bill Mott-trained horse has posted Speed ratings of 109 and 105 twice this season, which are some of the best numbers in the field, and we won't count his last effort in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup against him -- the five-year-old was simply a pacesetter for the entrymate Flat Out that afternoon. Speed is most dangerous at longer distances because front runners can often get away with slower fractions and save plenty for the finish. The early splits in last year's Marathon were a glacial :51 2/5, 1:17 2/5 and 1:43 3/5, with 25-1 pacesetter Gabriel's Hill admirably holding for the third, and Birdrun is of much more quality than that outsider. With a lack of speed in the field, Birdrun probably won't have to go much faster during the early stages of this year's Marathon. And he has a very capable rider in John Velazquez. We like his chances wire to wire. 2ND -- BRIGANTIN is an intriguing contender for Team Valor International. The Andre Fabre pupil has the class to get the job done if he takes to the dirt at Churchill Downs, defeating Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden twice this season and recording an excellent third behind Fame and Glory in the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup, and the fact that he's not a one-dimensional plodder helps his chances here. We also like the addition of Julien Leparoux in the saddle. The four-year-old won't lack fitness, recording a close third in a Group 1 race at 2 1/2 miles on October 2, and Brigantin is a winner at the 1 1/2-mile distance. And Fabre has probably tried the French-based colt over the dirt gallops at Chantilly in preparation. He could make his presence felt from off the pace. 3RD -- A.U. MINER is the likely favorite. He was launching a serious move in last year's event before being severely interfered with in a chain reaction started by Prince Will I Am (remember the fisticuffs between Calvin Borel and Javier Castellano afterward) and wound up being elevated one spot to third by the stewards after checking in a hard-luck fourth. A.U. Miner missed the first part of 2011 but will enter his return engagement off two commendable performances, winning the 1 1/2-mile Greenwood Cup by 3 1/2 lengths prior to a rallying fifth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and the closer has posted multiple wins over the main track at Churchill Downs. We wouldn't discourage anyone from using A.U. Miner in multi-race wagers -- the six-year-old appears to be at the top of his game for trainer Clark Hanna and will handle the 1 3/4-mile trip -- but he could find himself at the mercy of an expected dawdling pace in this spot. We will use the expected favorite underneath in the top three. OTHERS -- CEASE is an up-and-coming gelding for Al Stall Jr. and will receive a positive rider switch to Garrett Gomez, who has won eight Breeders' Cup races over the past three years. The four-year-old finished first in three straight races (disqualified once) prior to a close third in his stakes debut last out, the Grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup, and we expect him to be up close tracking our top choice. This is a step up for the lightly-raced Cease, who was competing against maiden rivals three starts back, but he appears to relish longer distances and rates a serious candidate for part. PLEASANT PRINCE will enter on the upswing for trainer Wesley Ward, recording a smart 4 1/2-length victory in the September 15 Pot o' Luck Stakes at Belmont Park that registered a 105 BRIS Speed rating, and is one to consider for the exotics, especially if the price is near his 12-1 morning line odds. The late runner appears to be training forwardly for this event and is eligible to outperform our expectations, but we have some concerns about his effectiveness at 14 furlongs. Defending champion ELDAAFER also can't be dismissed from top three consideration, but he owned much better form entering last year's race. He's training forwardly in preparation, recording a four-furlong bullet work in :46 4/5 last Saturday at Monmouth, but we'll take a stand against from post 10.
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