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TAMPA BAY DOWNS NOTEBOOK FEBRUARY 12, 2013 by Bob Bauer Racing resumed Wednesday and it was the same old story -- fast, firm and sunny. Florida's weather has been extra lovely lately, at least it appears so as most of the northern states have been suffering a severe winter. It has been several weeks since there has been an "off" track at Tampa. The moveable rail on the turf course was set at 22 feet on Wednesday and Thursday and at zero for the remainder of the week. Both courses continue to be consistent and fair. Speed does well -- pacesetters are lasting for a piece of the purse even if they can't steal the whole thing. Horseplayers should be careful to consider the pace scenario before backing that front-running speedball who has you and your bankroll excited. Even the best horses can be compromised if they have to fight head to head for the lead for an extended period. It can pay to use the pace figures that can be found in the BRIS Ultimate P.P.'s. Beware of a runner who has high figs for the first two points of call, but the final fig is way below par. Numbers don't lie (usually) and such an animal is likely to get caught in the stretch, unless turning back in distance. If you think the speed might be vulnerable, look for a horse with good BRIS Late Pace numbers. This angle can be especially powerful if a runner is the lone one with big late pace ability, who figures to be closing on a tiring group who have been dueling themselves into defeat. Favorites are still winning at a high rate, although their success has cooled off somewhat from earlier in the meet. The chalk won at a 37 percent clip last week (18 for 49). Likewise, shippers also have been seen less in the winners circle lately. They scored eight times last week (16 percent). It might be helpful for bettors to give another long look at shippers who didn't run well in their initial attempt at the Downs. Graded stakes action returns this Saturday with the Grade 3, $150,000 Tampa Bay Stakes. Four-year-olds and up will clash at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. HORSES TO WATCH Wednesday (2/6) 3RD -- ECSTATIC MISS (Consolidator) stumbled badly coming out of the gate and finished up the track in her latest outing with first-level $75,000 allowance/optional claiming sophomore fillies. Trained by Barbara McBride (24 percent), this miss had been going well (a maiden special weight score followed a good second in her debut) and is certainly eligible to make amends after this setback. 8TH -- BRAINY (Lemon Drop Kid) had a rough time in her first lifetime start with maiden special weight sprinters. She was fractious around the gate and broke slowly and was in last place into the stretch, but showed some interest closing late to finish fifth. This filly is well-bred on both sides and should have a productive future despite the shaky beginning. Thursday (2/7) 5TH -- SIT DOWN PIDGEON (City Place) was an impressive first-out winner at 14-1 versus $8,000 maiden claimers. This four-year-old gelding is trained by Kenneth Wirth, who wins with 25 percent of debut maiden claiming runners. He should do well going through his conditions. Friday (2/8) 8TH -- SEDUCTRESS (Lemon Drop Kid), a recent graduate with $25,000 maiden claiming fillies and mares on the lawn, had some tough going in her first try with non-winners of two lifetime. She was in traffic on the clubhouse turn and steadied, then made a middle move to go after the leaders and ended up in third. Improvement is expected, she was claimed out of her maiden victory by Carlos Garcia (40 percent winners, 33 percent after a claim) and might get the job done next time out. 9TH -- EL LEGADO (Jump Start) was bet down to 4-1in a $16,000 claiming affair on the weeds after being sent off at 46-1 and 15-1in his last pair of local efforts, which were marred by bumping incidents. He was steadied early in his latest attempt and could jump up and surprise with a clean trip. Watch the tote board with this one. Saturday (2/9) 4TH -- MANCINI'S GODDESS (Mancini) woke up and ran well with blinkers back on, finishing fourth despite being in tight quarters in the stretch as a tiring rival drifted in. This five-year-old mare was awarded the show dough on the disqualification. This was her best local race yet and she may have more where this came from. 6TH -- REAL GONE (Repent) has been in the money twice in a row sprinting with $8,000 non-winners-of-two lifetime, older fillies and mares. In her last appearance, at seven panels, the dark brown was dead last at the half-mile call and rallied to miss by less than a length and get the place. Seems to like it here and might get up with this kind yet. 7TH -- PREPONDERATE (Big Brown) overcame trouble and scored at 25-1 on the grass against $32,000 maiden claimers in his first try for a tag. This sophomore colt comes from the stable of William Kaplan (25 percent winners) and was handled by Jose Garcia, who is two-for-two this season riding for Kaplan. This pair is likely to strike again. Sunday (2/10) 6TH -- QUITE THE FACE (Straight Faced), a three-year-old colt, went to the post as the 2-1 chalk with regular pilot Ron Allen Jr. in the irons. He gave a good account of himself after being bumped at the start, and still got up for the place. This colt has shown an affinity for the grass in his trio of local efforts. Fits well with $32,000 claimers and should be extra tough if able to get an unchallenged lead. 9TH -- BRADY (With Distinction) has had a pair of less-than-stellar efforts with $16,000 non-winners-of-two lifetime colts and geldings. This four-year-old Dennis Ward (30 percent winners) trainee has shown some potential and may be effective with conditioned claiming company. His latest race on the turf was a disappointment. Watch for this one back sprinting on the dirt. 10TH -- SHEZAJEZABELL (Stonesider) was pressing the pace in a 6 1/2 furlong test against $25,000 maiden claimers when the sophomore filly was put in tight quarters and taken up near the quarter pole. Next time out will be second-time Lasix, (some horses show improvement then). She was claimed two back by veteran conditioner Derek Ryan, is lightly raced and could be ready for graduation soon.
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