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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS FEBRUARY 15, 2013 by Dick Powell Joel Rosario has been getting a lot of criticism this week for his ride on Animal Kingdom in Saturday's Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. Animal Kingdom had not run since a terrific second in the Breeders' Cup Mile and he needed Saturday's race as a prep for his ultimate prize -- the Group 1, $10,000,000 Dubai World Cup at the end of March. The criticism of Rosario's ride was his early move going to the half-mile pole while down on the inside. The early pace was very slow -- :25.07 and :50.52 -- and Rosario tried to blow the race open with a sharp, aggressive move. Rosario squeezed Animal Kingdom through the inside going into the far turn and raced evenly with Salto and Point of Entry. The pace picked up with the third-quarter run in :22.72. Even being three wide, Point of Entry was able to cruise along while clear on the outside and loomed boldly. Salto began to weaken in the run through the stretch and Animal Kingdom kept up the pressure. Johnny Velazquez had Point of Entry in an all-out drive on the outside and they ran the fourth quarter in :22.47. Point of Entry had the momentum in his favor and he went on to draw off to a 1 1/4-length win over Animal Kingdom. Unbridled Command rallied strongly for third. Did Rosario's premature move cost him a win the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap? Probably. But had he not made the move that he did, he would have sat behind the slow pace for another quarter-mile and then unleashed his kick in the final quarter-mile. How was that going to get him ready for the Dubai World Cup? What Rosario did will have Animal Kingdom ready for a race that is worth 33.33 times more than the race he just lost. The last thing Animal Kingdom needed was a paceless race where he kicks home in the stretch. Prep races can be too hard and too grueling but they also can be too easy. I am not sure that one nine-furlong stakes race on the turf is enough to have him ready for 10 furlongs against world-class competition on a synthetic surface but at least trainer Graham Motion has plenty of time to get him peaked and ready. Since switching to Meydan and now run on Tapeta, the Dubai World Cup has evolved into the toughest race in the world to win. Fourteen starters are the norm and we might see as many as 16 this year. Synthetic specialists, turf horses and shippers from all over the world makes it extremely tough to not only win but earn one of the minor awards. Pace is always a challenge and, more often than not, the Americans usually get it wrong. There is usually a slow pace for the first half-mile to six furlongs as most of the riders try to maintain their positions. The mistake is that as the night goes on, the Tapeta main track becomes more speed-favoring and is ripe for the taking if a rider decides to make an early move. Animal Kingdom has shown an ability to accelerate that makes his international rivals green with envy. He's won going 10 furlongs and has spent much of his adult life training on Tapeta at Fair Hill. He goes to this year's World Cup as the best chance that any American has had to take down the big prize in Meydan. And if he does, he can thank Rosario for riding him in a way that set him up for it and understood what a prep race is for. Ironically, the horse that won the prep race, Point of Entry, is not going to go to Dubai after all. It was expected that he would go in one of the two $5 million races on World Cup night but now those plans have been scrapped. Why, I don't know. It's hard to figure out why the Grade 1 Arlington Million would be the near goal when the Group 1 Dubai Duty Free and Group 1 Sheema Classic are run for five times that. ***** Graydar is an immensely talented horse who has only started four times. He made three starts last year and, after breaking his maiden first-time out, he was no match for Saratoga Snacks in his first start against winners. He then returned to Gulfstream Park almost three months later and crushed allowance foes by four lengths going a mile in fast time while earning a BRIS Speed rating of 108. With a belated career debut and gaps between all his starts, it made sense to find a stakes race for him and Todd Pletcher threw him in the deep water of the Grade 1 Donn Handicap going nine furlongs on the main track. It was his first time going two turns and first time against stakes foes but it made no difference. Regular rider Edgar Prado sent him to the front and he proved what Allen Jerkens once said about fast horses: "Speed is like a shotgun; dangerous in anyone's hands." Prado had control of the field down the backstretch and I liked the fact that he didn't try to back the pace down but let him run on. Graydar went :23.12, :23.75 and :23.72 unchallenged and opened up a clear and commanding lead. With the strong fractions and speed-favoring main track, nobody was threatening and he cruised to a three-length win stopping the teletimer in 1:48.25 and earned a BRIS Speed rating of 105. Where he goes next is anyone's guess. The Grade 1 Met Mile would be the most logical spot but we'll see if Pletcher finds anything in between. Graydar is the 15th Grade 1 stakes winner sired by Unbridled's Song and, like most of them, he's already spent a lot of time on the sidelines.
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