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TAMPA BAY DOWNS NOTEBOOK MARCH 26, 2013 by Bob Bauer The topic this week is class. This column has made many references to speed and pace dynamics this season. While always important, these factors are only part of the puzzle of handicapping. Horseplayers must consider class when evaluating a runner's chances with a particular field. Class surely means different things to different people. For our use, class is a way for handicappers to determine a runner's level of competition. The idea here is to be able to know if an animal is facing easier (less accomplished) or tougher (better) rivals. Most players are familiar with the phrase "winning on the drop." What does it actually mean? Trainers at every track know that horses can improve dramatically sometimes with class relief, no matter what the level of racing -- stakes, allowance or claiming. This week there were several cases of winners scoring by dropping to face easier company. Some were upsets and generated huge payoffs. Wednesday's nightcap, a 1 1/16-mile affair for $50,000 sophomore filly maiden claimers on the grass, is a great example. Many Thoroughbred fans know that going from maiden special weight to a maiden claimer can be the most significant class move in the game. The winner, LIGHT THE NORTH (North Light), was last seen finishing last with maiden special weight sprinters at Gulfstream in late February. Prior to that, the sophomore miss had a pair of starts at Tampa. The latest was a dull attempt on the lawn with special weight runners. The first, versus $50,000 maiden claimers taken off the turf, was a good effort that got the place. Trainer John Wells dropped her back in for a $45,000 tag and made some other changes -- a switch to rider Oriana Rossi and he took the blinkers off. She paid $127 for the win and, of course, triggered monster payouts in every pool. Friday showed us a few different kinds of drop-down moves. The winner of the opener, a maiden claimer, had her tag cut to $8,000 from $25,000. First time blinkers completed the deal and resulted in a new maiden graduate. The winner of the second, a route for non-winners-of-two in six months with a $5,000 claiming price, had been racing against open $6,250 claimers. The drop in claiming company and price gave that runner an edge. In the fifth race, a turf test for non-winners of three lifetime with a claiming price of $16,000, the victor, a 10-1 shot, had been facing the same kind at Gulfstream for a $30,000 tag. Being aware of class placement can make a big difference in a player's bottom line. Just take a few moments to note if a runner is making a class drop of some kind. Also, through experience, players will notice that certain trainers excel at these moves. If there are other positive factors at work, (equipment, rider, surface or distance changes) there might reason to make a wager. Favorites won at a 25 percent clip (10-for-40) Things have turned around from earlier this season when the chalk was scoring at 40 percent or better. Track conditions were a mixed lot this past week. Showers moved through on Tuesday and the racing week began with a wet-fast main track and the turf rated as good, with the rail at 30 feet. Both courses would be upgraded to fast and firm by the Wednesday's end. Friday was fast and firm, but heavy rains that night closed the turf course for Saturday. The dirt started out as good and was then called wet-fast in the official charts from the fifth race on. Sunday was a showery day, the dirt was fast and the turf good. The finale was moved off the lawn. It might be prudent to watch a race or two on Wednesday to see how the tracks are playing. A wet main track can be tricky at Tampa. HORSES TO WATCH Wednesday (3/20) 1ST -- REBA'S AFFAIR (Strategic Mission) managed to get the place after lacking room inside on the turn and angled to the outside and rallied late. This veteran mare had been competing against non-winners-of-two in six months, this latest effort was with non-winners-of-one. The slight drop can make a big difference and we may see her in the winner's circle soon. 3RD -- HOW CONVENIENT (Noble Causeway), a recent graduate with $8,000 maiden sprinters, ran well in his first try against non-winners-of-two lifetime at the $12,500 level. He was boxed early, but was able to rally out of the turn and take a brief lead before hanging and checking in second. Merits consideration next time back. Friday (3/22) 8TH -- GUY ON THE GO (Tapit) was bet down to 5-2 in his first try versus $25,000 non-winners-of-two-lifetime on the grass. He was forced to steady on the clubhouse turn, but rallied a bit to finish fifth. This Kathleen O'Connell trainee should go better next time with a good trip. 9TH -- I SEE A SHARK (Ripsaw), a five-year-old gelding, gave an impressive effort to get the place against a tough field of $10,000 claiming sprinters. Sent off as the longest shot on the board (28-1), he closed well behind a much-the-best three-length winner. Could surprise the right speed-laden field. Saturday (3/23) 4TH -- SILVEREST (Congrats), a five year-old mare, clipped a rivals heels after the break, recovered and chased the leaders to far turn before giving way in a $16,000 starter handicap that was taken off the turf. This one's form has been dull so far this season and she may be coming around now. Worth using in gimmicks at a price. 10TH -- FIFTH STREET (Street Cry) overcame trouble to score by a nose sprinting with a group of second-level allowance/$32,000 optional claimers. The Benny Feliciano trainee was in good position early on, but lacked room on the turn and waited for racing room. He then moved four wide and wore down the leader despite being pushed to the outside late in the stretch. Appears to be sharp now. Sunday (3/24) 4TH -- GRAY STORM A'COMIN (Tropical Storm) woke up at 23-1 in her second try at Tampa with $5,000 non-winners-of-one in six months. She stalked the pacesetters early, moved very wide on the turn and had good late foot to get the show dough. Should be a contender with this kind. 6TH -- P V PAUL (Dynaformer), a lightly-raced Gulfstream shipper, was bet down to 9-10 in his Tampa debut. He raced in tight through the stretch and finished up well once clear. Could make amends next time.
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