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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JUNE 14, 2013 by Dick Powell The Belmont Stakes and the Triple Crown for 2013 are over and while history was not made, it was still a lot of fun with three challenging races to handicap and bet on. The Derby showed that workouts are critically important. The first Saturday in May is penciled in on every trainer's calendar and with few exceptions, the horses are on a schedule for the past four months to be at their best that particular day so their workouts are a true indicator of what condition they are in. Orb worked brilliantly and raced back to it when he rallied wide from far back to win the Derby and provide Shug McGaughey with his first Derby win. Todd Pletcher had five entrants in the race and when Revolutionary's third was the best he could do, he skipped the Preakness with all five and regrouped. With Orb winning the Derby, the horses that showed up for the Preakness were now in a different position regarding their training. If the Derby was "Plan A," the Preakness is clearly "Plan B," at least for the ones that ran in the Derby. And even for those that didn't, it's not like their owners and trainers sat around all year and mapped out a plan for the third Saturday in May. How you came out of the Derby physically is a critical component of being ready for the Preakness. It looked like Orb was better than ever but horses can make liars of us all. Everything that could go wrong went wrong and Orb was lucky to run fourth. Even so, he was not the same horse he was in the Derby. Oxbow, the only horse that raced up on the pace to hang around in the stretch of the Derby, had a dream trip and pulled off the upset. It was on to the Belmont Stakes, the "Test of the Champion," and this race at 1 1/2 miles is definitely a "Plan C." If you raced in the Derby and Preakness, you were just trying to keep the wheels from coming off. If you skipped the Preakness like Pletcher did, you had five weeks to regroup but at the marathon distance, you have to do some training and show up with a fit horse. As handicappers, we have a pretty good idea of how horses are doing going into the Derby. For the Belmont, it's impossible to judge since most are on differing schedules. Last year, I'll Have Another earned rave reviews for his morning gallops and Paynter was dismissed after appearing stiff all week. Well Paynter worked seven furlongs on the Sunday before in 1:26 and had every right to be a bit stiff while I'll Have Another looked good since he wasn't really doing anything but gallop home in the stretch. I liked Revolutionary in the Derby and stayed with him in the Belmont. I thought his third-place finish in the Derby was solid and with Orb running in the Preakness, Revolutionary might have the advantage since he skipped it. One thing that worried me was that Revolutionary only had two, half-mile workouts since the Derby. Neither was particularly impressive and while it's important to show up at Belmont with fresh legs and high energy, you still need to be fit and ready to go the added distance. Were the two half-mile breezes enough or were they a sign of some issues coming out of the Derby? Pletcher worked Palace Malice three times after his Derby debacle when he ran off with Mike Smith in his first race with blinkers. He removed them for the Belmont and in each of his three workouts, he showed controlled energy. Working on the identical days at the same distances was Unlimited Budget, who was taking on boys for the first time, and I thought she had a big chance. With my nagging fear on Revolutionary, I considered putting Unlimited Budget on top, but when she drew post 13, it made my decision a lot easier. With a ton of early speed horses to her inside, it was hard to see her working out a trip without losing too much ground. Belmont Park was inundated with heavy rain on Friday. As the races were run, the course got even wetter and overnight the rain was heavy and steady. The track was sealed tight as could be overnight, and with no training on Saturday morning, the track maintenance crew had plenty of time to get to work. Saturday was sunny and dry and the track began to dry out. The first two races run on it were won by horses coming from off the pace but that began to change. After race two, the tractors went around the opposite direction and suddenly the track was favoring speed. With the exception of the Woody Stephens, when the leaders went :21.99 and :44.73 into the wind, speed was king for most of Saturday so when the horses loaded into the gate for the Belmont, you knew we were not going to see a re-run of the Preakness. Alan Garcia sent Frac Daddy to the lead from post 1, and Luis Saez followed suit aboard Freedom Child right next to him. Gary Stevens put Oxbow into the race early and Smith had Palace Malice up on the pace on the outside. With a first quarter in :23.11 and a half mile in :46.66, it looked like this year's Belmont would go to a closer but a speed-favoring track can do funny things, even going 12 furlongs. Oxbow took the lead nearing the far turn as the inside speed backed out of it and Palace Malice loomed boldly. Javier Castellano was able to sneak Revolutionary through a hole on the inside and looked to be in perfect position around the far turn. He was right behind the speed horses that were setting a demanding pace and it looked like he would get first run at the lead. Joel Rosario had Orb in a drive but wasn't picking up horses as quickly as the Derby. With three furlongs to go, Stevens said afterwards that he was out of horse and told Smith to go on with it, which he willingly obliged. Palace Malice had the lead turning for home and opened up on Oxbow. Revolutionary flattened out while racing on the inside and Orb's wide rally was not going to be enough. With the wind at his back, Palace Malice took 27.58 seconds to run his last quarter but it was more than enough to win by 3 1/4 lengths over Oxbow in 2:30.70. The chart of the race was the opposite of the Derby with the one-two finishers racing up near the pace throughout. The only closer to threaten was Orb, and longshot Incognito, who raced right behind the leaders, finished fourth. The fact that Oxbow held on for second after Stevens said he was out of horse with three furlongs to run is indicative of how much the track was carrying speed. The surface, listed as fast since the 9TH race, favored fast early/slow late running styles and the fast pace turned out to be an advantage for those that gunned from the gate. Orb ran like a tired horse and we'll see how much time off he needs. Palace Malice, having skipped the Preakness, should be able to contest the late summer races and Oxbow has proven to be this year's iron horse with the best trio of performances in the Triple Crown. One reason I have been a fan of synthetic tracks as a bettor is that they provide a safe, consistent racing surface. On Saturday at Belmont, we basically saw two different main tracks, which should provide the lesson that flexibility to changing conditions is critical for pari-mutuel success.
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