|
|
PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING AUGUST 4, 2007 Some maidens to follow at Saratoga by Tim Holland In this space in early May, 10 lightly raced three-year-olds that had competed at the recently concluded Keeneland Spring meet were identified as horses to follow. Between them, those 10 have made 20 subsequent starts of which seven have resulted in wins, with one additional "winner" disqualified from first place. The return of $14.20 that the victory of Steve's Double (Stephen Got Even) generated at Churchill Downs and the $16.80 that Pauillac (Mr. Greeley) paid on opening day at Saratoga have helped produce an overall profit of 39 percent. With most of those horses now exposed, it's time to look for some more horses to follow, and Saratoga is a fine hunting ground. The first maiden race of the meet was won in very impressive fashion by Sargent Seattle, a son of the promising freshman sire, Vindication. However, there was another son of that sire in the same event that is worth noting for the future. His name is NOBLE HERO, and he is trained by Dallas Stewart for Overbrook Farm. Making his debut and breaking from the rail, never a good thing for a first-time starter, the dark bay colt did not attract much support in the market, being dispatched at nearly 10-1. In the event, Noble Hero was bumped at the start before running greenly and finishing a well-beaten fourth. Stewart generally wins with just 7 percent of his first-timers, but second time out he scores at a healthy 18 percent, so one can expect an improved effort next time from the colt, who is a half-brother to Ruler's Court (Doneraile Court), runaway winner of the 2003 Norfolk S. (G2). Indeed, one might expect Noble Hero to emulate another colt from these connections, Georgetown (Storm Cat), who scored impressively in his second start at Saratoga on Wednesday. The Todd Pletcher-trained FOREST PRINCE (Mineshaft) ran in the same maiden race won by Sargent Seattle and was made slight second choice by the public. The first foal out of multiple Grade 3 winner Forest Heiress (Forest Wildcat), who herself is a full sister to Grade 1-winning sprinter Wildcat Heir, Forest Prince is from the first crop of Mineshaft, whose early runners are indicating that they will need time and extra distance to show their best. After breaking awkwardly, the chestnut colt raced wide and tired to finish more than seven lengths behind Noble Hero in fifth. This should have been a good learning experience for Forest Prince, and he should be noted when he is stepped up in distance. BOROBUDUR (Kingmambo), who had made three starts in France last season, looked well prepped by Bobby Frankel, with a series of decent works, when he made his American debut in the 5TH race on opening day. Out of 1990 Coronation S. (Eng-G1) winner Chimes of Freedom (Private Account), Borobudur is from one of the most successful pedigrees in America, a family which includes Grade 1 heroes Aldebaran, Good Journey, Spinning World and Denon. Unhurried by jockey Edgar Prado for the first half of the 1 1/16-mile trip, Borobudur ran into traffic on the final turn but closed well when he finally got in the clear, and the four-year-old should find the winners' circle soon. The Shug McGaughey-trained two-year-old filly, FOREST TRAIL (Forest Wildcat), put up an impressive performance last Thursday to come a neck shy of defeating Twisted Tale (Tale of the Cat), who had previously finished a good second to the subsequent Grade 3 winner Subtle Aly (French Envoy). After breaking well in the 2ND race, the dark bay was allowed to settle behind her rivals before being swung wide two furlongs from home and finished well despite lugging in. McGaughey is a patient trainer whose charges generally improve with racing experience and Forest Trail, who is out of the Grade 3-placed Manoa (Seeking the Gold) and who owned just average works before her debut, should be no exception. While trainer Patrick Biancone owns a good overall win rate of 20 percent, with his first-time starters it is a disadvantage for any runner making their debut on the dirt to be trained exclusively over an artificial surface. This may have been detrimental to the chances of this barn's entrant in the three-year-old filly maiden last Friday, ETRO (Silver Deputy). Having trained well at Keeneland, which included the fastest work of 42 when working four furlongs from the gate, Etro was fairly well supported for her debut, being dispatched at 6-1 in the 4TH race. However, this event turned out to be not much more than a learning experience for the bay, as she raced greenly in midpack and only offered a mild rally. Like all the runners pinpointed in this article, she should improve for this race. COMMANDEERED is by a very low percentage first-time starter sire, Deputy Commander, and is trained by Bill Mott, who is another trainer whose charges often do better with racing experience. Thus it was no surprise when this colt was allowed to start at nearly 20-1 in his debut Saturday. However, it was unexpected when the two-year-old colt, who is a half-brother to 1997 Swale S. (G2) winner Confide, showed good speed while sitting just off the pace and then when he made a threatening move at the top of the stretch. At the finish Commandeered was no match for the impressive winner, War Pass (Cherokee Run), but it was a great debut to build on. At the start of the year, many may have expected the offspring of freshman sire Whywhywhy to be fast and precocious. However, having now had a handful of runners including two winners, it appears that the offspring of this sire may be better with the benefit of a race. HOPEHOPEHOPE, who finished a distant second to the very impressive Mott-trained winner J Z Warrior (Harlan's Holiday) in Sunday's 2ND race, may be a good example. Breaking from post position 1, the filly was steadied early and lost her position and was green while making up ground in the stretch. Well fancied as the third choice, the Biancone-trained Hopehopehope should be one to keep an eye out for. CITY SPIRIT (City Zip) broke poorly in her debut in the 7TH race Sunday before losing any remaining chance of victory that she may have still had by rushing up the rail to chase the fast early pace against maiden company restricted to New York-breds. Well bet as the second choice, City Spirit came here with a solid worktab for trainer Michael Hushion and still loomed a threat at the top of the stretch before her early exertions took their toll. She should be given another chance. DELTA WEEKEND (Jump Start) is similar to Commandeered in that she is by a low percentage first-time starter sire and is trained by a trainer who does better with his runners that are making their second or third starts. Also similar is that both outran their odds when the Frank Alexander-trained Delta Weekend closed from far off the pace to finish third in her debut in Monday's 4TH race going 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. With her sire starting to show that his progeny are better over routes, this juvenile filly can be followed when faced with longer distances. Also closing from the back of the pack in that grassy maiden on Monday was another promising youngster from the Biancone barn, BOSTON CAT (High Yield). Being by a son of Storm Cat and out of a mare by Boston Harbor, this filly may not have the distance potential of Delta Weekend, but is just as exciting a prospect. As the post-time favorite, Boston Cat is obviously well thought of by her connections, but she lost all chance when bumped soundly at the start and is another that achieved little but a learning experience in the race. Ten maidens to follow from the early part of the Saratoga meet: BOROBUDUR
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
