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PREAKNESS REPORT MAY 7, 2009 by James Scully A large field is shaping up for next Saturday's Preakness S. (G1), including possibly the top four finishers from the Kentucky Derby (G1). Runner-up PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) is the only member of the quartet not yet confirmed, but he's expected at Pimlico and will be the favorite unless RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro) shows up. A spectacular 20 1/4-length heroine of the Kentucky Oaks (G1), Rachel Alexandra is reportedly on the verge of being sold to Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stables. If the deal goes through, she's expected to move from Hal Wiggins to the barn of Steve Asmussen and be supplemented for $100,000 to the Triple Crown. Rachel Alexandra will create quite a buzz if she shows up at Old Hilltop. Many people believe she would've easily captured the Derby a day later, but the filly didn't have to deal with any problems against a small group of overmatched rivals in the Oaks. She may have gotten roughed up during the early stages of the Derby, and I applauded her connections for their discretion; there's plenty of big prizes left to win the rest of this year. The bay lass garnered a 111 BRIS Speed rating in the Oaks, one point better than MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) a day later. I would rather see Rachel Alexandra wait and point for her first showdown against males in the Belmont S. (G1). That would give her more time to prepare for the major class hike, and there's no doubt in my mind that she'll handle 1 1/2 miles. Jockey Calvin Borel struggles to pull her up following her morning breezes, and Rachel Alexandra didn't want to stop at the finish line of the Oaks, continuing to roll around the clubhouse turn. She wasn't tired and wanted to just keep on running. Borel fits Rachel Alexandra like a glove, and the jockey situation will be a big issue if she winds up being sold. Borel did ride some horses for Asmussen at Oaklawn Park this year, so he'll probably keep the mount if she switches barns. Her new connections would be villains if they sack the popular 42-year-old Cajun. Rachel Alexandra is the most exciting horse in training, and she'll provide a huge boost to the middle of leg of the Triple Crown with her participation. If she does show up, Pioneerof the Nile will be a tough rival for her to handle. The Bob Baffert-trained colt looked like a winner midway on the far turn of the Kentucky Derby and jockey Garrett Gomez appeared to have a lot of horse left entering the stretch. The Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner came up a little empty, checking in 6 3/4 lengths back of the winner, but he still battled gamely for the place, outfinishing third-placer MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) by a nose in deep stretch. The Zayat Stables' homebred registered a career-best 103 BRIS Speed rating in the Derby, a vast improvement over his previous career-best. Pioneerof the Nile brought a four-stakes winning streak into the race, but he hadn't earned a Speed rating better than 96 in any of those starts. After being easily dismissed last time -- it's difficult to support a horse with numbers 10+ points lower than his main rivals -- Pioneerof the Nile is now appealing to Speed-rating enthusiasts. He still hasn't raced on a fast dirt track, but that's not a serious concern given how he trained over fast conditions at Churchill Downs. However, there still is a little doubt. Sire Empire Maker relished a wet track when capturing the Belmont S. (G1), so it was no surprise to see Pioneerof the Nile handle the muddy conditions last Saturday. Experience was the common denominator for the top three Derby finishers. In this era of more and more lightly raced horses, Mine That Bird, Pioneerof the Nile and Musket Man were more of a throwback to Derby runners of years past. Eleven of the 19 Derby starters in 2009 were eligible for at least a non-winners of the three "other than" allowance, and those horses wound up struggling for the most part. Fourth-placer PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike) was the only finisher in the top five without at least four wins in his career. After watching Big Brown make a mockery of the experience angle last year, I was glad to see the Derby return to form in a sense. I got suckered into believing that the inexperienced Dunkirk (Unbridled's Song) had a big chance in the Derby, but those kinds of horses are a terrible bet in the Derby regardless of their talent. Dunkirk's supporters will blame his bad effort on the troubled trip, but he was the perfect candidate to suffer trouble. Horses with no bottom to them are generally not equipped to handle the demands of such an extreme test. I'll preview the Preakness next week.
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