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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS AUGUST 14, 2009 by Dick Powell Turf sprints have been the bane of many Saratoga horseplayers' existence, but with a little research you can be successful. After two weeks of racing, there have been 13 turf sprints at 5 1/2 furlongs -- all run on the Mellon turf course. The most popular winning post positions have been post 2, 4 and 11, with three wins each. You might be surprised that post 11 has that many wins -- or that the rail has not had a winner yet -- and that is why you might be having problems with turf sprints at Saratoga. I think of Saratoga turf sprints as a paradox of extremes. Intuitively, you might think that speed should do well in these races with the short distance and you would be right in the sense that six of the 13 turf sprints have been won gate to wire. Yet, according to the Track Bias Stats found in BRIS' Ultimate Past Performances, the Speed Bias for Saratoga turf sprints is only 46 percent. This is because the gate-to-wire winners are balanced out by all the winners that have been rallying from far off the pace. What the Track Bias Stats show is that horses that can make the lead can win, but those that stalk the early speed have not been winning. Not a single horse that was second or third at the first call has won a turf sprint at Saratoga this year. Extreme running styles win Saratoga turf sprints. When handicapping Saratoga turf sprints, the first task is to identify the horse that can outsprint all the other speed horses. Next, I would eliminate the obvious pace pressers since they do not win unless they make the lead. That leaves us with the horses that figure to rally from off the pace. Running on the Mellon turf course enables horses that are rallying from off the pace to maintain their momentum turning for home and keep their rally going. Even at the 5 1/2-furlong distance of turf sprints, this is an important factor as it give horses that are rallying on the outside a legitimate chance. To sum up: don't be afraid to play horses breaking from the outside, avoid horses breaking from the rail, try to identify the horse that can outsprint all the other speed horses, avoid horses that press the pace and look for legitimate closers. Also, Linda Rice has already won four turf sprints and is the major force among the trainers. Swiss psychologist Hermann Rorschach created the "Rorschach Test," also known as the "Inkblot Test," as a method of psychological evaluation where the psychologist records and analyzes the patient's perception of inkblots. According to Wikipedia, some psychologists use this test to try to examine the personality characteristics and emotional functioning of their patients. It has been employed in diagnosing underlying thought disorder and differentiating psychotic from nonpsychotic thinking in cases where the patient is reluctant to admit openly to psychotic thinking. For horse racing, I give you the "Zenyatta Test," a handicapping evaluation tool that divides handicappers into two schools of thought. The first is that she is an overrated synthetic track specialist that has benefited from consecutive Breeders' Cups being held in her backyard and rarely ventures away from her home base in Southern California. And, the second is that she is one of the all-time greats in her sport and we are lucky to be watching her perform her amazing feats. Case in point: the Clement L. Hirsch S. (G1), run at Del Mar at 1 1/16 miles on Polytrack where ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) was the defending champion and looking to extend her undefeated streak to 12. Sent off at 1-5, her only real competition looked to be her stablemate, Life is Sweet (Storm Cat), who was coming off a good third against males in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) last out. Zenyatta's regular rider, Mike Smith, set up shop in her usual place behind the field. Like a harness driver at the Meadowlands, it looked like Smith was looking to flush cover from the back of the seven-horse field. Flush cover means that the driver wants someone ahead of them to move out and make a move so that they can get a covered trip in behind them. Smith was patiently waiting for Garrett Gomez, rider of Life is Sweet, to move off the rail down the backstretch and follow him. Instead, for some reason, Gomez waited and waited before pulling out. While all this was going on, the leaders were able to waltz through a first half in :48.84 and six furlongs in 1:13.64, and separate themselves from the John Shirreffs-trained duo. Zenyatta made her usual gigantic move around the far turn but when she hit the top of the stretch, she was still in fourth place with about six lengths to make up in Del Mar's relatively short homestretch. Smith pulled out all the tricks of the trade to get her to make up the difference and at one point it not only looked like she would lose but that she wouldn't crack the top two. At about the sixteenth pole, with Smith furiously asking her for more, Zenyatta showed what she is made of. She extended her stride to amazing lengths and gobbled up ground. Her last five strides have to be seen to be believed and her final one looked like an Olympic sprinter hitting the tape in the 100 meter dash; leaning forward at the wire to make sure. The photo of Zenyatta winning was eerily reminiscent of Forego's final, desperate lunge to win the 1976 Marlboro Cup H. (G1). Some how, some way, Zenyatta got up in time to maintain her perfect record and continue on in her quest to beat Personal Ensign's record of 13 wins in an undefeated career. So what did we see last Sunday at Del Mar? Was Zenyatta exposed in a weight-for-age race against competition that she has continually beaten as just a Southern California synthetic track wonder mare? Or, was her victory in the Hirsch an example of how she is one of the great racemares of all time? The answer is pretty simple. If you are a Zenyatta fan, you were amazed at what she was able to do. If you are not a Zenyatta fan and especially if you are not a fan of synthetic tracks, Zenyatta's narrow win was an example of how unremarkable the fillies and mares that she keeps beating are and until she ventures out of her home base and takes on the best on a dirt track, she will always be viewed suspiciously.
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