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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS SEPTEMBER 18, 2009 by Dick Powell I wrote last month about how to lower the takeout on bets that you make so I had to play the $350,000 guaranteed Pick 4 at Belmont Park last Saturday. Usually I avoid Pick 4s because of the 26 percent takeout on them at NYRA and direct my bets to win and/or place, exactas, daily doubles and Pick 6s with carryovers. I make an exception at NYRA since they only charge 16 percent on non-carryover Pick 6s. But last Saturday seemed like the perfect opportunity to make a bet with lower takeout. NYRA was guaranteeing that the Pick 4 pool would be $350,000 and if it didn't hit that level, they would make up the difference. When it was pouring rain Friday night and more was forecasted for Saturday, I began to pay attention. The last two races on Saturday -- the concluding legs of the late Pick 4 -- were scheduled for the turf and with the rain there was no way these races were staying on the turf. Yes, each one had more than its share of main track-onlys, but there would certainly be more scratches than horses drawing in and reducing the size of the fields. Race 7 was a very competitive maiden special weight for juveniles going six furlongs on the main track. What started out as a field of 11 was reduced to seven when there were four program scratches. Race 8 was the Garden City S. (G1), which figured to stay on the turf unless the rain turned into a monsoon and a field of eight entered the gate when the undefeated Maram (Sahm) was scratched. When race 9 came off the turf, five main track-onlys drew into the race, leaving a field of 10, and two main track-onlys drew into race 10, leaving a field of eight. So the new, late Pick 4 after scratches and surface changes had seven, eight, 10 and eight runners, respectively. Not bad, but the problem was the surface change for the last two races made those races hard to handicap. Figuring that the $350,000 guarantee would not be hit, I jumped in and played a $64 ticket. Long story short, I had three out of four and lost in the Garden City when I played Gozzip Girl (Dynaformer), the 2-5 favorite that almost went down in the first turn when Kent Desormeaux almost clipped heels in heavy traffic, and Shared Account (Pleasantly Perfect), who got caught late when on an unwanted lead when no pace developed. The winner, MISS WORLD (Bernstein), was making her stakes debut and made it a Grade 1 when she rallied strongly with Cornelio Velasquez. The late Pick 4 pool turned out to be $311,964 so the guarantee was not hit and NYRA had to seed the pool with $38,036 to meet it. The Pick 4 at NYRA has a 26 percent takeout so the normal takeout on the $311,964 would have been $81,110. The $38,036 that was needed to reach the $350,000 guarantee reduced the takeout to $43,074 so instead of playing a Pick 4 with a 26 percent takeout, we got to play a Pick 4 with a 13.81 percent takeout ($43,074 divided by $311,964). Unlike carryovers where you know the certitude of their existence and how much they are, trying to find a guarantee that is not going to be hit is a lot more risky. The worst that can happen is that the guarantee is hit and you would up making a bet in a pool with a high takeout. But if you factor in the conditions that were present at Belmont Park last Saturday, you could easily guess that the chances of having low takeout to bet into were enough to dive into the pool. Not wanting to take anything away from RACHEL ALEXANDRA's (Medaglia d'Oro) brilliant win the Woodward S. (G1), I didn't write anything last week about the world's best three-year-old running earlier that same morning. SEA THE STARS (Cape Cross [Ire]) won the Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1) in such an authoritative way that the analysts on TV were saying he might be the best ever in the modern era of European racing. Run at Leopardstown in Ireland, trainer Aidan O' Brien pulled out all the stops to try to derail the Sea the Stars juggernaut on his home turf. Unlike the rest of Europe where stewards make a nominal effort to enforce the rules against team riding, Ireland looks the other way when horses are purely entered to set the pace for their stablemates. O' Brien entered not one but two rabbits to help set the race up for Irish Derby (Ire-G1) winner Fame and Glory (Montjeu [Ire]) and four-time Group 1 winner Mastercraftsman (Danehill Dancer). Both rabbits did their job and as they began to tire, Mastercraftsman was the first to make his move followed quickly by Fame and Glory as they tried to break the race open with just over a quarter mile to run. Mick Kinane was amusingly riding Sea the Stars along with little effort as his cruising speed was keeping him in contact with the leaders without making much effort. When Kinane asked Sea the Stars to go, the response was both immediate and electrifying. He flew by the Ballydoyle pair with little difficulty and without feeling the whip cruised to a 2 1/2-length victory that had European racing aficionados re-thinking who the greatest horse they have ever seen. He was that good as he won his fifth Group 1 stakes of the season for trainer John Oxx. The current plan for the half-brother to leading sire Galileo (Ire) (Sadler's Wells) as well as Grade/Group 1 winners My Typhoon (Ire) (Giant's Causeway) and Black Sam Bellamy (Sadler’s Wells) is to go right to Paris and try to win the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) just like his dam, URBAN SEA (Miswaki). Oxx does not want to race him on soft-to-yielding turf, but right now the long-range forecast for Paris is good with little rain expected. If he wins the Arc, and after last week's prep races at Longchamp failed to provide any meaningful competition for him he's been cut to odds-on by the major European bookmaking firms, Sea the Stars will go down in history as one of the world's best sophomore colts ever. Owned by Hong Kong resident Christopher Tsui (pronounced "CHOY"), there's still a good possibility that he would come to Santa Anita for the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) to conclude a brilliant career.
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