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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS OCTOBER 2, 2009 by Dick Powell The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) is finally here and with the cooperation of mother nature it promises to be a corker. Paris' recent weather has been dry enough for the course superintendent at Longchamp to consider adding water to ground that is on the firm side of good. All season, trainer John Oxx has protected his superstar colt SEA THE STARS (Cape Cross [Ire]) from running on ground that is too soft, and now it's all systems go for him to try to take his place among the immortals of European turf. Amazingly, it looks like a large field will line up as some, not all, trainers feel that this might not be a walk in the Bois du Boulogne for Sea the Stars as his presence has not scared away as much competition as once thought. Yes, Sir Michael Stoute will decline the issue with Spanish Moon (El Prado [Ire]) and now it has been announced that the ground will be too firm for Epsom (Eng-G1) and Irish Oaks (Ire-G1) winner Sariska (Pivotal), and she will pass the Arc as well. The gallant Yeats (Ire) (Sadler's Wells) will make the final start of his illustrious career in the Prix du Cadran (Fr-G1) at 2 1/2 miles instead of the Arc, and Aidan O'Brien's main hope will rest with FAME AND GLORY (Montjeu [Ire]) who was no match for Sea the Stars in the Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1) last time out. O'Brien is banking on his horse's ability to get 12 furlongs, which he did in the Irish Derby (Ire-G1), and his suspicion that Sea the Stars might come up short at the 12-furlong distance of the Arc. O'Brien will enter at least one pacemaker and it should only help Sea the Stars. In a bulky field, he'll want some pace and Mick Kinane can place him anywhere he wants after the break. I don't think he'll be in the first flight but probably at the head of the second flight. The challenge for Kinane is what does he do when there is a premature move from one of the contenders? Can he wait as long as possible or does he just go and try to grind them down in the final three furlongs? Sea the Stars is so versatile that he should be able to overcome just about anything and Kinane has ridden him brilliantly all year. I have to pick Sea the Stars to win this year's Arc, which I will not be attending after making the previous three, as I am in Las Vegas for the Fall Classic Handicapping Tournament in Las Vegas. The question is who runs second, and I have an equally strong opinion of who is the best of the rest. VISION D'ETAT (Chichicastenango) went into last year's Arc undefeated and did not disgrace himself when beaten 3 1/2 lengths by the mighty Zarkava. He returned to the races this year with a third in the Prix d'Harcourt (Fr-G2) at Longchamp but then atoned for that mistake with a smashing win in the Prix Ganay (Fr-G1) three weeks later. At Royal Ascot, Vision d'Etat was at his best when winning the Prince of Wales's S. (Eng-G1) going 10 furlongs over ground that will be similar to what he will see on Sunday. Trainer Eric Libaud gave him the rest of the summer off as his whole season was to bring him to the Arc in top form. He was beaten three weeks ago at course and distance by Spanish Moon but it was the perfect prep race for him as he was only hand ridden to the wire by Olivier Peslier and galloped out strong. He loves Longchamp, showed he can handle firmer ground and comes into the Arc sitting on a big effort. I give him the best shot of producing his optimum effort in the Arc and will be the strongest threat to Sea the Stars. We'll play a straight exacta with Sea the Stars over Vision d'Etat and root like hell for Sea the Stars to make history.
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