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DICK POWELL'S Cup Selections & Raceday Updates After reading everything I can get my hands on, watching every show on the Melbourne Cup (G1) and talking to some of the participants Monday evening at a dinner, it's time to make up my mind and decide who I am going to back in the 149th running of the race that stops a nation. Every horse that I think has a legitimate shot to get the two-mile distance on Tuesday has a flaw. VIEWED (Scenic [Ire]) will be the betting favorite, has to carry highweight and his odds will be further compromised by the betting public blindly betting trainer Bart Cummings looking for his 13th win in the Cup. C'EST LA GUERRE (Shinko King) seems to want more give in the ground and has to tote the second highest weight. MASTER O'REILLY (O'Reilly) will get the ground that he likes but seems to hang in the stretch. MOURILYAN (Ire) (Desert Prince [Ire]) hasn't run since the end of August. ROMAN EMPEROR (Montjeu [Ire]) is a question mark at the distance and doesn't seem to have enough racing miles to be ready, CRIME SCENE (Royal Applause [GB]) has a suspect pedigree, as does MUNSEF (Zafonic). ALCOPOP (Jeune) has connections that are unproven on this stage, WARRINGAH (Galileo [Ire]) will try to go gate-to-wire with his one-dimensional running style, BASALTICO (Shantou) did not show enough in his prep and will be overbet as Luca Cumani tries to make up for his two second-place finishes in the Cup the past two years, DAFFODIL (No Excuse Needed [GB]) has to overcome post 21, SHOCKING (Street Cry [Ire]) has to overcome post 22 and ALLEZ WONDER (Redoute's Choice) does not get the weight break that many of these receive today. I know it can be folly by going with the most recent attention-getting performance but I like SHOCKING'S chances to win the Cup for Mark Kavanagh and Corey Brown. His win in Saturday's Lexus S. (G3) was terrific as he came from way back and passed eight horses in the last furlong while down on the inside. He ran well against second choice Alcopop last month at shorter distances and I love his pedigree for ground that should be "Good-3." He will have to overcome post 22 but with his running style Corey Brown will take him back anyway and hopefully he can get over to the rail and save some ground. He'll need some luck racing behind a big field but he showed Saturday that he can accelerate quickly when asked, so I expect that he can make his own luck. At 112 pounds, he'll be around 10-1 odds; not exactly what I want but being in form makes him worth the choice. Every time I look at the Cup's form I keep coming back to Mourilyan, and if he had any kind of prep race I would put him on top. A true stayer, I remember how good he was in Dubai going long when he was owned and raced by the Aga Khan. Herman Brown is a top international trainer, he gets a ton of weight off and his second behind Schiaparelli (Monsun) three starts back was as good as any of these have run at the distance. He draws well and the faster the pace the better. VIEWED is hard to ignore but at the price I have to play against him. His prep in the Mackinnon was excellent but at the highweight of the field I have to go against him. Bart could win his 13th Cup with any of his three entrants and they all figure to take significant money. DAFFODIL should be able to overcome the fact that she is only four years old since she has already started 21 times. She has to overcome post 21 but this hard-knocking mare from New Zealand is taking lots of smart money. Our betting strategy will be a win bet on #21 SHOCKING and a five-horse trifecta box with #21 SHOCKING, #5 MOURILYAN, #1 VIEWED, #20 DAFFODIL and #4 MASTER O'REILLY. In the North American pool, it looks like there is a pari-mutuel field from #20 on up so you'll get #21 and #20. Add #13 KIBBUTZ (Golan [Ire]) as a longshot to get into the money. There is a chance of showers on Cup day but it doesn't appear to be severe enough to change the ground. The pace might be strong as there are a few in here that will be forwardly placed, so that might ease some of the expected congestion. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (Montjeu [Ire]) will have to pass a vet's exam in order to race in the afternoon. It will be a long day of wagering but I've spent a lot of time handicapping the rest of the card and will probably take a shot at the pick 4 also known as the quaddie that begins with the Cup as the first leg. Good luck. *** Raceday Updates: The stewards of the Victoria Racing Club have ordered #23 CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (Montjeu [Ire]) scratched from today's Melbourne Cup due to lameness. Trainer David Hayes vehemently disagreed and said that they should scratch every horse in his stable if that is the standard. The track super, also known as the Clerk of the Course, said that the ground today will be listed as "dead-5" with some rain overnight giving some give. The rain seems to be over and with very windy conditions for the rest of the day, it should firm up to "dead-4" later on.
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