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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS NOVEMBER 6, 2009 by Dick Powell The Breeders' Cup will be run for the 25th time this weekend at Santa Anita and it will be great to have the attention back on handicapping the horses and not on the host site. One area in which I disagree with many of my fellow handicappers is how the large pools of the Breeders' Cups represent a great opportunity for a life-changing score. These races are super tough to wager on and I recommend that you tread lightly. If anything, take the usual amount that you might bet and spread it thinner because of the depth of the fields. If you have a strong opinion, great, but don't go gimmick crazy without at least making a win bet if the odds justify it. With 14 races spread over two days, the last thing you want is to forget your money management skills and come up short of funds when you need them. FRIDAY Marathon: MASTERY (GB) (Sulamani [Ire]) is the type of horse that the Breeders' Cup hoped to attract when they carded this race last year. He won the English St. Leger (Eng-G1) in his last start and does have some form on an all-weather track. Play him in straight exactas over Father Time (GB) (Dansili [GB]). Juvenile Fillies Turf: LILLIE LANGTRY (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) had a big win on ground similar to what she will see Friday when she won a Group 3 in Ireland. Has progressed nicely for trainer Aidan O'Brien and should have no trouble getting two turns. Underneath, I'll use Tapitsfly (Tapit) and Smart Seattle (Smart Strike). Juvenile Fillies (G1): BLIND LUCK (Pollard's Vision) won the Oak Leaf (G1) here at this distance with a strong rally and should get a similar setup from post 3. Beautician (Dehere) had a nightmare trip in the Alcibiades S. (G1) at Keeneland in her synthetic track debut. Always a Princess (Leroidesanimaux [Brz]) has enough speed to overcome the 11 post under Garrett Gomez. Filly & Mare Turf (G1): MIDDAY (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB]) beat older fillies the first time she tried them on soft turf then came back with a good third on ground that was much firmer. Just missed by a head in the Epsom Oaks (Eng-G1) in June against much better than these. Visit (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB]) just missed last out when running to close to the pace; draws the rail and gets Gomez back. Filly & Mare Sprint (G1): INFORMED DECISION (Monarchos) has a brilliant closing kick, loves the distance and has never been beaten on a synthetic track. She'll run these down with a well-timed move from Julien Leparoux. Sara Louise (Malibu Moon) has never raced on a synthetic track but she has the pedigree and running style to be successful here. Ventura (Chester House) will be overbet off a terrific win over males going a mile on the turf in fast time. Defending champ loved it here last year. Ladies Classic (G1): CARELESS JEWEL (Tapit) should have the early lead all to herself and as long as she isn't too crazy before the race she can take them gate-to-wire. Cocoa Beach (Chi) (Doneraile Court) ran well here last year and was stuck behind a slow pace last time out. Music Note (A.P. Indy) has won two Grade 1 stakes in a row and shows up here fresher than she was last year. SATURDAY Juvenile Turf (G2): INTERACTIF (Broken Vow) has a deadly late kick and will be flying late with Kent Desormeaux. Pounced (Rahy) is a lightly-raced Euro from the John Gosden barn who was a good second in a Group 1 last out. Viscount Nelson (Giant's Causeway) has to make sure he doesn't get shuffled back too far from an inside post. Turf Sprint: LORD SHANAKILL (Speightstown) won a Group 1 two starts back going a mile and did great last year going this distance. This is an impossible race to handicap but at least he's shown he can run well against big fields. California Flag (Avenue of Flags) will be the one to catch with Joe Talamo. Cannonball (Catienus) should have won at Ascot this summer and has a strong kick. Sprint (G1): ZENSATIONAL (Unbridled's Song) has been training even faster than normal for Bob Baffert and he'll have to break alertly from the rail. Fleeting Spirit (Ire) (Invincible Spirit) does not behave at the gate, so you'll know how she'll do before the race is run. If she loads without incident, watch out. Gayego (Gilded Time) could get the same pace set-up that he got in the Ancient Title (G1) and run these down. Juvenile (G1): ALFRED NOBEL (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) is a Group 1 stakes winner from O'Brien who was beaten last out when racing on the wrong side of the track. No shot when racing over heavy ground two starts back. Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike) has to overcome post 13 but he loves this track. Vale of York (Ire) (Invincible Spirit) is a speedy Euro who should handle American racing. Mile (G1): ZACINTO (GB) (Dansili [GB]) still hasn't won a group stakes but he was a terrific second two starts back then rallied well to get second behind Classic favorite Rip Van Winkle. Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa) was overbet in this race last year when she won at 9-5 and figures to be lower here. Justenuffhumor (Distorted Humor) hated the soft turf last time out and will relish the return to firm going. Dirt Mile (G1): MASTERCRAFTSMAN (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) ships in from Ireland for O'Brien off a sensational win on an all-weather track going longer. Winner of two Group 1 stakes going a mile, he is fast enough to handle any pace scenario. Ready's Echo (More Than Ready) is a one-dimensional closer who will be flying late to get a piece. Midshipman (Unbridled's Song) won here last year and had a good prep for this in his only start this season. Turf (G1): DAR RE MI (GB) (Singspiel [Ire]) beat the two best turf fillies in Europe two starts in a row then ran well in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) last out. Spanish Moon (El Prado [Ire]) is a lightly-raced turfer from Sir Michael Stoute who loves this distance. Presious Passion (Royal Anthem) will have a gigantic lead and we'll be wondering if he's going to stop. Classic (G1): RIP VAN WINKLE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) has been knocking heads with Europe's best all year and comes into this race with two huge wins going a mile. ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) finally gets a chance to go long on her favorite track. Training bullets for this. Mine That Bird (Birdstone) ran well on synthetics last year and comes in here relatively fresh at a good price. Key to any exotics. Summer Bird (Birdstone) could be compromised by running over a sloppy track last out at Belmont that a few horses did not come out of well.
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