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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MARCH 8, 2013 by Dick Powell The road to the Kentucky Derby went through Aqueduct last Saturday with the 60th running of the Grade 3, $400,000 Gotham Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on the inner dirt track. This year's running attracted a field of 11, with Mike Repole's Grade 2 Futurity and Grade 2 Remsen winner Overanalyze sent off as the 17-10 favorite. Close in the betting pool was the undefeated New York-bred Vyjack at 23-10 and the rest were all 7-1 and higher. Overanalyze was going to have to overcome post 10 in his first start in more than three months. Vyjack had shown high speed in all three career starts, including a game win last out here in the Grade 2 Jerome, so his outside post did not appear to be a problem. At the start, Vyjack was taken to the back of the pack by new rider Joel Rosario in an attempt to teach him to settle early. This flies in the face of what I wrote last week here regarding the new points system to determine Derby eligibility, where I thought that very few trainers would be changing tactics this close to the Derby. Considering how well horses up on the pace have run this meet and the size of the field, it was a bold move on trainer Rudy Rodriguez's part. This change of running style enabled another New York-bred, West Hills Giant, to go to the front and have the early lead all to himself. Amazingly, the 33-1 longshot put away all challengers and opened a two-length lead with a furlong to go. Rosario had Vyjack in a wide drive turning for home and the energy he saved early was there for him late as he mowed down all his opponents and won going away by 2 1/4 lengths. West Hills Giant held on gamely for second and Elnaawi was a rough-trip third. Overanalyze was a one-paced fifth after racing wide throughout. I thought the real star of this year's Gotham was Elnaawi. He looked great breaking his maiden second time out here going a mile on a muddy track and the half-brother to To Honor and Serve had a nightmare trip but still ran third. He was steadied in the first turn, raced wide, had to be steadied again which made him very rank, and raced extremely wide. Every time Channing Hill asked him for run, Elnaawi responded. Despite all this, he continued to show energy to the wire. Don't know if he'll be ready or even gain a berth in the Derby, but I think he'll be a major Belmont Stakes horse since he showed good speed in his prior start and has already shown versatility. And, first time Lasix seemed to help. The $500,000 yearling purchase is bred to go long on the dirt and he has improved in each of his three career starts. One aspect of Elnaawi's last two starts was how different they were run. In his maiden win, his pace figures were 111, 98, 85 but in the Gotham they were 76, 87, 102. That kind of versatility in a young horse is rare to find and indicates a ton of natural talent. Also on Saturday at Aqueduct was the Grade 3 Tom Fool Handicap going six furlongs for older sprinters. California shipper Comma to the Top was sent off as the 21-10 favorite and he promptly went to the top for Rosario. He battled to maintain his advantage until turning for home when it looked like he was going to be swallowed up by the closers. With horses to his outside and inside, Comma to the Top dug in grimly and spurted in the last 100 yards to hold on by a desperate nose. It was a sensational performance by him and a great ride by Rosario. He was able to get a bit of a breather on the turn, which he needed in the stretch when he had to run his last quarter in :23.97. Racing this winter at Aqueduct has been pretty grim so when you see races like Comma to the Top's and Saginaw's win in the Hollie Hughes, where he took the length of the stretch to run down a runaway leader, they are even more memorable. So who is the smartest person in New York racing? The usual suspects are Repole, Todd Pletcher, Bill Mott, Chad Brown, etc. but a new candidate has emerged from the shadows. Randi Persaud started 374 times in 2012 and won 12 races for a whopping 3 percent win strike rate. But what makes him so smart is that a stable that could only win once for every 31 times they ran was able to earn more than $860,000 in total purse money for 2012. What Persaud did in 2012, and continues to do in 2013, is to run as often as possible and even if his horses do not finish in the top four, they are getting minor awards all the way down to last place. They rarely have big time pedigrees or gaudy Speed figures, so there's no crush to claim his horses so he can enter them in just about any spot he wants. $860,000 pays a lot of bills and when you consider that his runners did not cost very much to acquire, it's not a bad business model. In 2013, Persaud is winning with 9 percent of his starters, and his stable earnings of $325,000 is in the top 10 at Aqueduct. Got to like a guy that is making lemonade out of lemons.
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