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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MARCH 29, 2013 by Dick Powell This Saturday might be one of the best days of racing we will see all year. From early in the morning to late in the afternoon, we are going to get quality racing from around the world with huge implications. Very rarely do we get quality with quantity but that is what March 30 will give us. The day will begin early on Saturday morning from Meydan Racecourse where the Group 1 Dubai World Cup will be held. Eight races worth $27 million have attracted 41 Group/Grade 1 stakes winners from around the world. This is the real World Thoroughbred Championships, not the Breeders' Cup. This year's renewal is marked by an increased American presence which begins in earnest in the 7TH race, the Group 1, $5 million Dubai Duty Free going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. Breeders Cup Turf champion Little Mike will try to double his $3 million bankroll with a win here. Little Mike and stablemate Dullahan shipped to Dubai at the beginning of March to get a race under their belt and get acclimated as much as possible. Little Mike ran on the Tapeta in the third round of the Group 1 Maktoum Challenge and he ran extremely well before weakening in the stretch. He should get a lot of conditioning out of that race and be fit and ready for this. On paper, it looks like Little Mike will have a big pace edge here over these so an easy lead is there for the taking if Gary Stevens wants to take advantage of it. Little Mike's competition should come from Ocean Park, who won the prestigious Group 1 Cox Plate last October in Australia and comes in here off a Group 1 stakes win in New Zealand and The Apache, who was a brilliant winner in the Group 2 Al Rashidiya at the start of the Carnival and then was a close second next out in a Group 1 here going this distance. The Mike de Kock horses have all improved with racing and this one might still have some improvement left in him. Sajjhaa has won all three starts this year at the Carnival including a win in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta against The Apache. She drew well and should be able to race in midpack before unleashing her late kick. Igugu was the talking horse for the entire meet when it began but things have not gone her way. Whether it was the brutal quarantine procedure she had to go through before coming here or she just can't reproduce her South African form, she has only been a rumor of her past self. She's not impossible on Saturday and if you do use her make sure you get the right price. I like Little Mike to use his pace advantage and wire the Dubai Duty Free with The Apache and Igugu filling out the rest of the placings. The second to last race on the card will be the Group 1, $5 million Sheema Classic going 1 1/2 miles and to me, the Japanese super mare Gentildonna lays over the field. She's won both times going this distance including a nose victory over the great Orfevre who should have won last year's Group 1 Arc de Triomphe. Since showing up, Gentildonna has trained brilliantly and just looks too tough for this group. I'll use her in straight exactas over Shareta, Sharestan and Await the Dawn. Run later than ever at 2:05 p.m. (EDT), the Group 1, $10 million Dubai World Cup has a stellar field of 13 going to the post. The late start to the race gives the Tapeta main track more time to cool off from the hot sun earlier in the day. The history of the World Cup run at Meydan is that horses that are up near the lead do very well and horses that are way back never seem to get going in time. That said, I don't see Dullahan doing much even though this is his favorite distance. I don't know how much he got out of his prep race when he broke poorly and rushed up into contention while stuck down on the inside. Now, he draws post 3 and figures to get shuffled back into traffic. He has a cagey rider in Stevens to extricate himself but I think it will be too much to ask. Animal Kingdom drew post 12 and combined with his running style, he's going to be up against it despite him looking like his old self in the morning. He trains on Tapeta at the Fair Hill Training Center so the surface and distance should be perfect for him. I liked Joel Rosario's ride in his prep race since he should get something out of the race but wish he could have drawn in the middle. Royal Delta drew well in post 8 and she has changed her running style to a pace presser. If she can get away from the gate cleanly, she should be able to race up near the lead and gallop along. Most of these races going two turns on the Tapeta have very slow paces and Royal Delta has the ability to make the lead and then drop her head and gallop along. I give her the edge here but she has to break well. The favorite is Godolphin's Hunter's Light, who has done nothing wrong here in two starts. He'll race in the first half of the field and bide his time until the right moment. Nothing not to like about him and he represents the best chance for the home team to win the world's richest race again. Of the outsiders, Planteur represents good value. He was third in this race last year and comes in here with a winning prep race on a synthetic track in Great Britain going this distance. He draws well and has a great money rider in Ryan Moore aboard. I'll go with Royal Delta to win and then use the others in exactas and trifectas to try to inject some prices into the mix. Once the World Cup is over, the action shifts to America where Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds will be hosting $1 million Kentucky Derby prep races. The first one will be the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream. The three main contenders have all drawn well, and I give the edge to juvenile champion Shanghai Bobby who should get a dream trip from the rail. Kent Desormeaux will probably have to use Merit Man from post 8, but I don't see much speed other than these two. Rosie Napravnik should be able to either go to the front or concede the lead to Merit Man but either way she'll be forwardly placed while saving ground. Itsmyluckyday has been sensational lately and is a serious horse that never seems to get bet. He loves Gulfstream Park and should sit a stalking trip. Shug McGaughey sends out Orb off a sharp win in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and will be a stretch factor again. I'm still not sold on him and not even sure that he will go on to Kentucky. He's only had three half-mile breezes in March whereas Shanghai Bobby has had four, five-furlong breezes this month. If Orb wins, he won't pay much so I am negative against him in here. Not much value with Shanghai Bobby but if I can get 3-1, I'll go with a win bet and some cold exactas on top of Itsmyluckyday and Orb. Down at the Fair Grounds, a full field of 14 is entered for the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. I'll be rooting for Revolutionary since I touted him last year off his career debut. He was brilliant last out in the Grade 3 Withers Stakes and will have to use his broken-field running skills again since he will have 13 rivals to contend with. Al Stall Jr.'s Departing looks especially dangerous in here.
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