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GULFSTREAM NOTEBOOK MARCH 26, 2008 by Steve Zacks A Plausible Explanation and Handicapping Tips There may be a lot for a handicapper to learn from a review of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and the failed performance of favorite War Pass (Cherokee Run). Discussions everywhere have ranged from larceny to those intrigued by the price discrepancies in the various betting pools. First of all, a large segment of the money that goes into mutuel pools is keyed to the appearance of the race horse. In fact, much of it seeks to find flaws in the physicality of bet-down horses. Some of it focuses on conformation: some body types may be better suited to turf and/or the artificial surfaces than dirt and vice versa. Others keep track of changes in the individual horse from race to race, looking for differences in weight, coat, legs and way of moving. These skills are an asset for any handicapper to possess but in the age of simulcasting, few have the opportunity to get the proper view of horses in a timely fashion. And since not many possess them, this skill set has "wager value." For some reason, most of the racing media tends to shy away from the discussion of soundness issues surrounding the high-profile horses in advance of big races. Whether this is simply a lack of knowledge and understanding of this complex issue, or a way of protecting various relationships with trainers and owners, and the sport itself, one can only guess. In the meantime, it is often the player and casual fan who suffer. Whenever a handicapper has been confronted by an unexpectedly poor or extra-good performance, they should seek out a "paddock and post parade expert" and ask that person their opinion of the horse's pre-race appearance and demeanor. Most times he/she will give you the explanation in a few simple words. I have been told by several skilled observers that pre-race appearances explain more surprising performances -- good or bad -- than anything else. These days, how often is a horse retired within a month following a sub-par performance? Race horses, just like their human counterparts, are athletes and all upper-level competitive athletes have their share of problems. Some days these problems manifest themselves more visibly than others. A race horse's condition is never static and it will vary positively and negatively from day to day and race to race. Managing and training a race horse is as much about managing his conditioning as it is about managing and controlling his physical ailments. Some race days, a horse is "as good as he can get," but the phrase often omitted is "for him, considering his inherent problems." The better you learn to gauge the appearance of a racehorse in the paddock and post parade, the more you will understand why horses sometimes do and do not perform up to expectations. Regardless of your visual skill-level, it is an intensive and lengthy process; it is a worthwhile endeavor if you wish to take this game seriously. You will quickly learn that there are many horses that have learned to run with their problems. They still continue to perform at a high level as long as they are not pushed beyond their limits; if that happens, the wheels often begin to fall off. You will then better understand why, when a favorite comes up looking less than "perfect," the price rises as the serious money goes elsewhere. This will be reflected more in the straight pools, vertical wagers and serial wagers that start with these races, than it will in the back legs of serial wagers, simply because the horse in question can be seen before the race is run and before much of the money goes in. Second of all, be sure to do some serious thinking and ask the penetrating questions! As for the case of War Pass, ask why was he handled the way he was? Why did he debut in an allowance race for a small purse when there were hundreds of thousands of dollars available in graded stakes? Why did he go to Tampa Bay Derby instead of one of the many other prep races? Was his work pattern similar to Zito's other top three-year-olds in the past? I would never claim to be fully accomplished in looking at race horses in motion. While the perception of moving things is one of my limitations, I do try. I had no intention of doing anything other than watching the Tampa Bay Derby until I saw the post parade. I did not like what I saw in War Pass. He looked less fluid than he did before his recent Gulfstream race. Had I trusted my own opinion more, I would have made a giant score! Unfortunately I could not contact my friend and expert. I played against War Pass, and made money. I was not surprised by the outcome, nor as I found out afterward, were others who focus on the horse's physical appearance. Before you bet your money especially on a short price, make sure that all things make sense on paper and in the flesh before wagering a lot to win a little! If things do not fit on both counts, a contrary opinion, arrived at through a logical process, can prove very rewarding. DAILY REVIEW THURSDAY (3/20) This marks the first of the five-day racing weeks. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf The track was fast; the turf was firm with the rails at 48 feet. The turf seemed to be conducive to late runners for the most part. Speed was more prominent on the dirt though it was not impossible to make late runs. The winners were on the outside save one, who won coming up the inside, but there were other ralliers who closed good ground inside without winning. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Eibar Coa added to his meet-leading totals with a riding double. Paco Lopez, the promising and leading apprentice rider, also won two. Helen Pitts won with a new addition to her stable, EXPLOIT THE SUN (Exploit), a filly dropping and switching back to turf for her first start in Florida after shipping down from Hawthorne. Kirk Ziadie won with second-time starter AMECAMECA (Point Given), who was making his turf and route debut. I must admit to being impressed with what I see from this outfit. Ziadie has become a high percentage performer but seems adept at reading his stock and running them where they can do damage; most make some impact on the running of their races. DAILY REVIEW FRIDAY (3/21) There were still mostly claiming races on the card, but somehow it seemed to be a little better racing with some good turf races and a couple of maiden special weights. Trainers based outside of Florida won the bulk of the day's races. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf The dirt was fast with pace proximity an advantage; winners were running both inside and out. There were no big prices on dirt and the 8-1 winner was an arguable overlay coming off a "new pace top." The turf was firm with the rails at 48 feet again. Like Thursday, most of the winners did their running late! The winner of the last race, BLUE LION (Stormy Atlantic), was close-up throughout and finished up pretty well. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Peter Walder and Wayne Catalano each won one race to remain tied with 20 victories at the meeting; both could fight it out for the trainer's title. Edgar Prado was the lone two-time winner in the jockey colony. Horses or Races of Interest LA NEIGE (GB) (Royal Applause [GB') turned in a fast performance on the turf with a mile in 1.32.2. He got the good trip through on the inside, while Tiger Woodman (Woodman), who was every bit as good, took the overland route when finishing second by a fast-diminishing neck. Tiger Woodman finished up in less than 11 ticks, but once again he only got close. The winner, who was claimed for $62,5000 by trainer Michael Trombetta, and the runner-up are worth a look if in a reasonable spot next time. DAILY REVIEW SATURDAY (3/22) The rains came after the first race and literally washed out the last half of the card with races 7 through 10 going by the wayside. In my Daily Review for February 24, I discussed ADRIANO (A.P. Indy) suggesting that he was at his best on turf. After viewing the Lane's End (G2) on Saturday at Turfway, perhaps I should have included Polytrack in the mix. He was impressive enough in winning comfortably against a full but unaccomplished field. He was in proximity to the slow pace and was able to go on in the stretch, responding whenever he asked by new rider Prado, who rarely asks for more than he needs to win a race. A key comment appeared in Sunday's Handicapper's Edge: Motion commented that his paddock demeanor was much kinder Saturday than it had been before the Fountain of Youth (G2). Either he is maturing, or prefers cooler weather and Kentucky air and whatever. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf There was one turf race (rails at 48 feet) and it was run in the rain. The winner closed ground outside the leading duo. The dirt was sloppy and sealed for the 3RD through 6TH races; two of those were taken off the turf. Winners came from all over -- on the lead, from well back, inside and outside. The highest odds were 6-1. It was for the most part, pace match-ups and jockey tactics which decided the outcomes. Trainers and Jockeys of Note John Velazquez won a couple to tighten up the jock's race. Eddie Plesa Jr. and Allen Jerkens were familiar names winning their 15th and 10th races of the meet, respectively. DAILY REVIEW SUNDAY (3/23) The track was wet and sloppy all day. There was some rain late in the card. There were a lot of scratches throughout the card. There were a couple of allowance races but nothing special. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf They were off the turf following a reported five inches of rain. The track seemed to be in good order considering. If there was any noticeable bias trend, it was off the inside. With all that water draining down to the rail, it's not surprising that horses were probably a little better off the rail. That said it may have been as much the running styles of the winners as it was any particular bias. For a day such as this, there were few surprises and for the three horses that paid in double digits, it was as much a question of contentious races and low-profile connections which made the price, as it was any real surprise. Once again, I tip my hand to the track maintenance crew. They have done a great job throughout the meeting. One just has to wonder if they will try to do anything different for the big race this weekend. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Eddie Castro won the early double and rode a third winner in the 5TH. Coa won a couple; have you noticed that when he gets to the front he rides every path he can so that the horses making moves in behind have to alter course to avoid the kickback. Is it clever race riding or stretching the rules? The stewards here and in New York seem to think it is clever race riding as he continues to do it again and again without penalty. Catalano won another to climb into second place in the trainer standings. DAILY REVIEW MONDAY (3/24) It was a typical light Monday card which saw lots of scratches due to wet track conditions. There was but one bomber on the day ($62) and many logical runners. Track Trends -- Dirt & Turf Once again the races were off the turf. The dirt was listed as "muddy" for races 1-5, and "good" for the balance. There were a lot of slow starters winning with wide rallies normally entering contention as they headed into the stretch. There was one winner up the inside, but the track appeared to be fair. Trainers and Jockeys of Note Manny Cruz was the lone dual winner in either colony. The standings feature the same names as in recent weeks. Coa, Velazquez, Jose Lezcano, Prado and Kent Desormeaux top the jockey standings. Pletcher, Catalano, Nick Zito, Walder and Bill Mott lead the way among trainers.
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