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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS SEPTEMBER 12, 2008 by Dick Powell With today's Thoroughbreds racing as infrequently as they do, it creates many handicapping challenges. We are used to performing analysis based upon small samples but the samples have become so small they are statistically irrelevant. Case in point -- last Saturday's Ruffian H. (G1). Rain developed as the day went on and by the time the 9TH race rolled around the Belmont Park main track was labeled as "sloppy." In last year's Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), run over a drenched sloppy track at Monmouth Park, TOUGH TIZ'S SIS (Tiznow) finished seventh beaten almost 17 lengths. Two other starts on wet, main tracks resulted in similar failure. So what do we do with this type horse when it rains at Belmont for the Ruffian? Tough Tiz's Sis had terrific back class running well behind divisional superstar ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]). But what would she do on a sloppy track that she failed to handle in the past? In the Distaff, Tough Tiz's Sis broke behind the field and ran poorly. But was it the fact that she disliked getting sprayed with mud throughout the race or does she not stride out with confidence when the track is wet? Trainer Bob Baffert was taking no chances and gave first time rider Edgar Prado instructions to stay clean. "She has been training very well, and all I told Edgar was to be sure to keep this filly's face clean," Baffert said. "She doesn't like dirt in her face. Last year at the Breeders' Cup (in the slop at Monmouth Park), she got caught in behind horses and had dirt in her face and it was a complete disaster." Prado followed Baffert's instructions perfectly as he broke Tough Tiz's Sis well and stayed on the outside in the long run down the Belmont backstretch in the 1 1/16-mile event. Rite Moment (Vicar) went to the lead and gunned through a first quarter in :22.69 and the half in :45.03. Tough Tiz's Sis was a stalking second on the outside and when Prado asked her to make her move on the turn the Ruffian was over. Tough Tiz's Sis threw in a third quarter in :24.01 and Rite Moment had no response. No one was making up any ground from the back of the pack despite the first six furlongs being run in 1:09.04, and Tough Tiz's Sis cruised to a 12 1/4-length win in 1:40.46, earning a spectacular 115 BRIS Speed Rating. Now let's reverse the order of races and say that Tough Tiz's Sis' Ruffian romp was her first, not her fourth start, on a wet track. Surely we would conclude that she was a mudlark and couldn't wait for her to run back on a wet track. And we would be wrong. Give Baffert credit for running her on a sloppy track after previous failures. I still can't get over Team Curlin abandoning their plan to run in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) based on a second in the Man o' War S. (G1) that was run on a rock-hard turf course that he would never see again. Then there are the horses that run their race no matter what the surface or condition. Meet BACKSEAT RHYTHM (El Corredor). She has shown in her dozen lifetime starts that she'll run her race no matter what. Owned by Paul Pompa, Jr. and trained by Pat Reynolds, the same connections that developed BIG BROWN (Boundary), Backseat Rhythm broke her maiden on firm turf at Belmont. She then was a good second in the Frizette S. (G1) on a fast main track then rallied from far back in the sea of slop in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) to get third. This year at the age of three, Backseat Rhythm won going 10 furlongs on turf labeled as "good" and she won the Lake Placid S. (G2) last out on a course rated as "yielding." In Saturday's Garden City S. (G1) at Belmont, Backseat Rhythm wound up getting another yielding turf course. With the presence of Pure Clan (Pure Prize), winner of the American Oaks Invitational (G1) and part of the IEAH Stables-owned entry, Backseat Rhythm was sent off at nearly 5-1 odds. Around the far turn, Javier Castellano had Backseat Rhythm begin to pick up horses while racing in the clear. At the top of the stretch, she went after the leaders but when she drew abreast began to lug in. She brushed with Pure Clan inside the furlong pole and surged to a half-length victory. Julien Leparoux, rider of Pure Clan, claimed foul against Castellano and Backseat Rhythm. Numerous replays were shown but they were all either the pan shot or an angle from behind. I never saw a head-on replay of the stretch run while the stewards were deliberating. It did show that Backseat Rhythm was crowding Pure Clan in the final 100 yards but there did not seem to be enough evidence to take action. Backseat Rhythm was left up and Pompa/Reynolds won a Grade 1 stakes. She proved once again that she'll run over anything and it's great to see that rare versatility rewarded.
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