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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS OCTOBER 3, 2008 by Dick Powell ZARKAVA (Zamindar) goes for her seventh straight career win and a place in history when she takes on males for the first time in Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) at Longchamp. Never defeated in six starts, she has a win at course and distance last out when she won the Prix Vermeille (Fr-G1) in record time. She's currently being quoted at 3-2 by most of the bookmaking shops, and unless it pours cats and dogs, she merits that support. When you watch Zarkava before the Arc, ignore her antics. She does it all the time. As I wrote last June, she's headstrong and zany. Even after the Vermeille, her first attempt at 2,400 meters or just under 1 1/2 miles, she was so fresh after the race she was trying to buck Christophe Soumillon off while he was brining her back to be unsaddled. She loves Longchamp and with her furious late running style, post position draw should not be much of an issue. Facing Zarkava will be a strong field that keeps getting bigger as more rain is forecast for Paris. All year my pick for the Arc has been SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (Galileo [Ire]). He was only beaten two lengths in this race last year and that was after his stablemate and eventual winner Dylan Thomas (Ire) came over on him in deep stretch. I never understood why Team Coolmore and Aidan O'Brien didn't bring him to Monmouth Park as insurance in case it came up soggy. They stuck with Dylan Thomas as their lone entrant for the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) and I'll always wonder how Soldier of Fortune would have handled the soggy conditions. He romped in the Irish Derby (Ire-G1) last July on a similar turf course and is hoping that he can rain on Zarkava's parade. Right now, he's been quoted between 3-1 and as high as 9-2. Aidan O'Brien will also send out DUKE OF MARMALADE (Danehill), winner of five Group 1 stakes this year. If the turf comes up "good" he should benefit, so O'Brien has insurance either way. The question with Duke of Marmalade is how well will he handle the added distance against a big field -- might be as high as 17 runners -- and lots of pressure. Unlike smaller fields when riders can wait as long as possible before making their run, big fields like the Arc force riders to react to pressure from behind sooner than they want. YOUMZAIN (Sinndar) just missed winning last year's Arc with a late charge and he comes into this year's renewal in better form. He's been pointed for this race since running third in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot but it looks like he'll prefer firmer going than he might get on Sunday. VISION D'ETAT (Chichicastenango), like Zarkava, is undefeated in six career starts. He won by a nose three weeks ago at course and distance in the Prix Niel (Fr-G2) and gets a further class test Sunday. ZAMBEZI SUN (Dansili [GB]) was my pick for last year's Arc and he ran poorly. He won the Prix Foy (Fr-G2) last out here but trainer Pascal Bary indicated then that they might not even run in the Arc. It sounds to me like he's doing well and clearly Zarkava hasn't scared off much competition. When in doubt always follow your first instinct and I am going to stay with Soldier of Fortune to win this year's Arc. As much as I love Zarkava and would love to see her win and make history, I have to stay with my original choice. He's been pointed for this since last year and has had a relatively light campaign to be ready on the first Sunday in October. Duke of Marmalade blossomed this year and gave O'Brien an ace in the division but the plan was always to have Soldier of Fortune ready for the Arc. As I write this, O'Brien has won 20 Group 1 stakes races this year, and has multiple targets this weekend, but none bigger than the Arc. **** CURLIN (Smart Strike) won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park on Saturday on a sealed, wet track. It was not his most dominant win but it was far more than workmanlike. He had some traffic problems, ate a lot of wet sand and Robby Albarado never really had to ride him hard through the stretch. He shipped to California to prep for his defense of the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), and based on what I saw of Pro-Ride in the opening week of Oak Tree at Santa Anita, it should be no problem. My only concern is any long-term effects of running on a hard track. ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) displayed the same antics before the Lady's Secret S. (G1) that she showed before the Vanity H. (G1). She gets very hot and does a kind of prance with her hind legs while warming up. She barely won the Vanity, and on Saturday she was in tough against Hystericalady (Distorted Humor), who looked to have a huge pace advantage. But none of it mattered as Zenyatta inhaled the field and drew off to an easy win in fast time. It was the first of two Grade 1 stakes wins for offspring of Street Cry (Ire), which seem to excel on any surface but especially synthetic tracks.
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