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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
OCTOBER 24, 2008
by Dick Powell
Fourteen races to handicap; as Mills Lane would say, "Let's get it on."
My general themes for Breeders' Cup XXV are it will be a big day for the
Europeans and Garrett Gomez but not for Curlin.
First, the Euros. They have sent a strong contingent that seeks to take
advantage of the races being run on the Pro-Ride synthetic racing surface. Three
are skipping logical spots on the turf to try the Classic (G1) and others are
sprinkled throughout the turf races. Even though they face the heat of Southern
California and a long trip, the fact is that their top turf horses are better
than our top turf horses. The ones trying Pro-Ride will be a mystery but they
have had the luxury of training on similar surfaces to prepare for this.
Like the last time the Cup was at Santa Anita, I'm looking for Gomez
to have a Richard Mandella-like day. Agent Ron Anderson has him on a bunch of
live horses and with his intimate knowledge of the courses here he should show
the world once again that he is the world's best rider. Pro-Ride might provide a
level playing field for the horses but Gomez enjoys a huge home-field advantage
over his East Coast and international rivals.
As for CURLIN (Smart Strike), I see a lot of small chinks in the armor. He's
coming off a race on a sealed wet track that he did not appear to stride
normally over and his work load since then has been modest. His work last week
showed that he had no trouble getting over the Pro-Ride racing surface so it
shouldn't be an issue for him. But, Pro-Ride has attracted the toughest group of
international stars for the Classic and some West Coast specialists as well. Curlin can win but he has to be at the top of his game and make no mistakes.
FRIDAY
Filly & Mare Sprint:
#12 VENTURA (Chester House) won a Grade 2 in her only synthetic track start
going seven furlongs and has trained brilliantly for Bobby Frankel.
#5 Indian Blessing (Indian Charlie) found an ability to relax when Johnny
Velazquez got aboard her this summer and should be able to stalk the speed and
make first run.
#4 Lady Sprinter (Orientate), the filly from Argentina, has trained incredibly fast
here for this and has won numerous Grade 1 stakes on various surfaces.
#3 Intangaroo (Orientate) has won three seven-furlong Grade 1 stakes this year
and will still go off at generous odds.
Juvenile Fillies Turf:
#1 APRIL PRIDE (GB) (Falbrav [Ire]) makes American debut off some good efforts going
shorter but is bred for two turns. Draws the rail, gets Lasix and local rider
David Flores.
#9 Renda (Medaglia d'Oro), a long-striding filly, tries turf for the first time off
two wins going two turns on the dirt
#12 Heart Shaped (Storm Cat) draws the far outside for her distance debut.
#6 Freedom Rings (Proud Citizen) just missed last out in a Grade 3 stakes on
yielding turf and gets back top turf rider Alan Garcia.
Juvenile Fillies (G1)
#11 PURSUIT OF GLORY (Fusaichi Pegasus) romped in her second start on an
all-weather track in Ireland then was a good third in a Group 1 on the turf.
Draws outside but should be able to overcome it.
#10 Stardom Bound (Tapit) rallied furiously to win her last two starts in Grade 1's, including one here going two turns.
#4 Sky Diva (Sky Mesa) could be any kind off two romping wins and trains over a
synthetic track every day.
#8 C. S. Silk (Medaglia d'Oro) easy winner at Arlington in her distance debut
earning a top BRIS Speed Rating.
Filly & Mare Turf (G1)
#8 HALFWAY TO HEAVEN (Ire) (Pivotal) beat older fillies and mares in her first
start going this distance then came back to win at a mile in fast time.
#5 Wait a While (Maria's Mon) loves this turf course and distance while being
brought up to this race masterfully by Todd Pletcher.
#2 Vacare (Lear Fan) just missed last out here and should get a nice trip from
an inside post.
#7 Mauralakana (Fr) (Muhtathir [GB]) had won four straight on firm turf before running
second on a bog last time out.
Ladies' Classic (G1)
#3 COCOA BEACH (Chi) (Doneraile Court) looked great beating the defending champ
last out and has trained brilliantly here for Godolphin.
#1 Zenyatta (Street Cry [Ire]) undefeated champ comes off a career-best race and has
worked brilliantly. What's not to like?
#4 Music Note (A.P. Indy) victimized by a slow pace two starts back then romped
by eight last out.
#5 Carriage Trail (Giant's Causeway) synthetic-track specialist looked great
last time out.
SATURDAY
Marathon
#7 BIG BOOSTER (Accelerator) won a Grade 2 turf event going longer and has a
good record on synthetic tracks.
#6 Zappa (Afternoon Deelites) drops down in class and stretches out in distance
for John Sadler who has had a spectacular year.
#4 Sixties Icon (GB) (Galileo [Ire]), a Euro shipper, can run all day and gets Lasix for the
first time.
#3 Delightful Kiss (Kissin Kris) would be a great story if he wins and has the
advantage of training on Tapeta the last month.
Turf Sprint
#8 DIABOLICAL (Artax) just missed last out and is athletic enough to handle
the run downhill and crossover the main track.
#2 Fleeting Spirit (Ire) (Invincible Spirit) acted up bad in Paris last out but prior
efforts were all solid enough to run with these.
#7 Rouse the Cat (Sir Cat), a Canadian shipper, has the right running style and gets
Edgar Prado.
#13 Get Funky (Straight Man) good try last out here at this distance for Sadler.
Dirt Mile
#1 LEWIS MICHAEL (Rahy) ran well here going longer last year and comes off a
sharp seven-furlong win at Del Mar.
#8 Well Armed (Tiznow) posted a sharp win here going a furlong longer and has more than
enough tactical speed to be well placed and save ground from here.
#7 Albertus Maximus (Albert the Great) looks to be improving at the right time
for Vladimir Cerin and Gomez.
#9 Slew's Tiznow (Tiznow) is a lightly raced colt who could be dangerous, but I didn't
like the post he drew.
Mile (G1)
#4 GOLDIKOVA (Ire) (Anabaa), a top Euro miler, beat a strong group last out and draws well
here.
#9 War Monger (War Chant) made a strong middle move last out when wide and looks
to be peaking at the right time.
#11 Whatsthescript's (Ire) (Royal Applause [GB]) last three starts have been very strong,
including a fast win last out going a mile at Del Mar with Gomez.
#1 Shakis (Ire) (Machiavellian), a tough oldtimer, draws the rail with the cagey Garcia
looking for a way to sneak through.
Juvenile (G1)
#6 SILENT VALOR (Lion Heart) made a big middle move before flattening out in his
course debut and should improve off that effort.
#11 Midshipman (Unbridled's Song) just missed last out with many of these but
has a tough post to overcome.
#5 Azul Leon (Lion Heart), a one-dimensional closer, might wake up here at a big
price.
#3 Terrain (Sky Mesa) is another closer who might get up for a piece of the purse.
Juvenile Turf
#3 WESTPHALIA's (Ire) (Danehill Dancer) sire says he should handle soft turf, but his
best race came in career debut when second behind subsequent Group 1 winner on
firm going.
#7 Coronet of a Baron (Pure Prize) is a speedy local horse who just missed going seven
and tries two turns for the first time.
#11 Bittel Road (Stormy Atlantic) is undefeated in three starts for Pletcher and
has a
strong late kick.
#10 Skipadate (Skip Away) adds blinkers after just missing in his last two
starts.
Sprint (G1)
#2 STREET BOSS (Street Cry [Ire]), a one-dimensional closer, just missed here last out but
had won two straight Grade 1's before that.
#3 Fabulous Strike (Smart Strike) could be the one to catch from the inside and
sire is proficient producing synthetic track winners.
#1 Cost of Freedom (Cee's Tizzy), the latest Sadler claiming story, won a Grade
1 here last out at this distance in fast time.
#9 Fatal Bullet (Red Bullet) should get a dream trip stalking the speed while
clear on the outside.
Turf (G1)
#4 SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) ran well in the Arc (Fr-G1) when uncovered most of
the trip and should make amends here.
#11 Eagle Mountain (GB) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]) returned off a long layoff with a sharp
win last out going a mile on firm going and stretches out here for Mike de Kock.
#1 Better Talk Now (Talkin Man) just have a feeling that he'll wake up on firm
going today.
#10 Out of Control (Brz) (Vettori) was a sharp second last time out and gets Gomez back.
Classic (G1)
#1 GO BETWEEN (Point Given), a synthetic track specialist, can handle the distance
with no problem and is training brilliantly for Bill Mott.
#9 Curlin (Smart Strike) just think at the end of a long season he might have
come back to the pack enough to try to beat him here.
#2 Casino Drive (Mineshaft) looked great in his prep race over the track and is
bred to get 10 furlongs.
#4 Duke of Marmalade (Ire) (Danehill), a 10-furlong specialist, has to overcome a rugged
trip last out on soft turf to regain his best form.
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