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KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT APRIL 16, 2009 by James Scully Saturday's Arkansas Derby (G2) featured a great stretch duel between PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike) and the now-retired OLD FASHIONED (Unbridled's Song), and the Blue Grass S. (G1) delivered a great story in GENERAL QUARTERS (Sky Mesa). Old Fashioned's defection, coupled with the withdrawal of the front-running The Pamplemousse (Kafwain) the week before, knocks a lot of early speed out of the Kentucky Derby (G1) line-up. As a result, the classy QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Road) now looms as the possible pacesetter. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens probably prefers to sit right off a target before pouncing, but he won't mind running the field into the ground on a loose lead. The Florida Derby (G1) winner showed no ill effects from his recent quarter-crack when working five furlongs at Belmont Park last week. Another major development involves Florida Derby (G1) runner-up DUNKIRK (Unbridled's Song), who now appears certain to get into the Kentucky Derby field with $150,000 in graded earnings. I'll take a closer look at the main event after reviewing the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass. The Kentucky Derby is two weeks from Saturday. Blue Grass -- General Quarters tuned up for Saturday's Blue Grass with a sensational work at Churchill Downs, drilling five furlongs in a bullet :58 1/5, more than two seconds faster than 16 other workers at the distance on April 4, and then humbled his rivals at Keeneland, winning easily by 1 1/2 lengths. The gray colt rated in fifth during the opening stages, advanced wide into contention on the far turn, and took over at the top of the stretch. He kicked for home impressively over the Polytrack, finishing up 1 1/8 miles in 1:49 1/5, and the Kentucky Derby will be held over General Quarters' home track. It was at Churchill Downs last May when owner/trainer Thomas McCarthy, a retired high school principal, threw down $20,000 for the first-time starter in a maiden claiming race. General Quarters won by a neck that afternoon, but he wouldn't find the winner's circle for McCarthy until February, dropping seven straight starts at Churchill, Keeneland and Tampa Bay Downs before breaking through with a convincing 3 1/2-length score in the Sam F. Davis S. (G3). Following a troubled fifth in the March 14 Tampa Bay Derby (G3), General Quarters shipped back to Kentucky to prepare for the Blue Grass, and he needed to run well to make the Derby with only $130,645 in graded earnings. He wound up being overlooked at 14-1, the co-eighth choice among 11 runners. General Quarters, the only horse owned by the 72-year-old McCarthy, is the feel-good story of this year's Kentucky Derby. He's the stuff dreams are made of. The chances of him ever reaching this stage were astronomical last summer, and General Quarters now has a chance to win it. The Blue Grass hero will be the sentimental selection for Louisville-area residents as well as racing fans worldwide. The improving sophomore loves the main track at Churchill, but General Quarters doesn't rate as a top Derby contender. The competition gets much tougher next time, and the Kentucky-bred will have to run much faster to challenge. General Quarters earned only a 98 BRIS Speed rating in the Blue Grass, and his Speed ratings don't stack up favorably with many Derby hopefuls. He's dropped two of three starts to Illinois Derby (G2) and Tampa Bay Derby winner MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska), and jockey Eibar Coa, who picked up the mount for the Blue Grass, will abandon General Quarters for that rival. I hope he trains forwardly over the next two weeks and runs his best race on Derby Day, but General Quarters will need an upset like Giacomo in 2005 to win. HOLD ME BACK (Giant's Causeway), the 2-1 favorite in the Blue Grass, offered a solid late run for second while never threatening the winner, and the WinStar homebred will make his third start of the year in the Derby. The Bill Mott trainee opened his three-year-old campaign with a strong showing in the March 21 Lane's End S. (G2), closing from far back to win going away by 1 3/4 lengths, and received a 108 BRIS Late Pace rating that afternoon. The well-bred colt possesses a strong late kick, but his best efforts have come on synthetics and one can question the company's he's been facing in his last two starts. Hold Me Back ran poorly in his lone appearance on a dirt track, finishing fifth in the Remsen S. (G2) at Aqueduct in November. The previously unbeaten CHARITABLE MAN (Lemon Drop Kid) was never a factor on Saturday, checking in seventh in the Blue Grass, but his connections are reportedly still mulling a Derby bid with the lightly raced colt. Their plans were ambitious to begin with -- only one prep for a twice-raced juvenile who had never been past seven furlongs -- and there's no need to risk injury in a 20-horse field. Charitable Man will be one to keep an eye on later this year. Arkansas Derby -- After winding up on the early lead in the Louisiana Derby (G2), Papa Clem settled into a perfect stalking trip in the Arkansas Derby. The Bo Hirsch homebred relaxed in fifth as Old Fashioned rattled off unopposed splits in :22 3/5 and :46, and jockey Rafael Bejarano asked his mount to go upon reaching the final turn. Advancing four wide, Papa Clem rallied boldly into stretch and caught Old Fashioned by the eighth pole, passing the mile mark with a head advantage in 1:36 3/5, but the pacesetter wasn't done along the rail. Old Fashioned dug in gamely and the two colts battled through the final furlong, with Papa Clem edging clear in the final strides for a half-length decision. He completed nine furlongs in 1:49. Papa Clem didn't break his maiden until December 29, capturing a one-mile maiden special weight over the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita, and recorded an excellent second in the February 7 Robert B. Lewis S. (G2) in his first start against winners, finishing a half-length back of PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) and a length better than third-placer I WANT REVENGE (Stephen Got Even). The Lewis turned out to be a terrific Kentucky Derby key race. Trainer Gary Stute opted for the March 14 Louisiana Derby, deciding to get Papa Clem off the synthetics prior to the Kentucky Derby, but his charge was no match for FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy) over the sloppy track track at Fair Grounds. Papa Clem did gamely out-finish another rival for second that afternoon, and he ran much better at Oaklawn Park, registering a career-best 100 BRIS Speed rating in the Arkansas Derby. It's the same strategy employed by Jeff Mullins, who got I Want Revenge out of Southern California for a couple of dirt starts prior to the Kentucky Derby. If I Want Revenge or Papa Clem wins the Kentucky Derby and Pioneerof the Nile runs poorly in his dirt debut, Mullins and Stute will have laid a game plan for Southern California-based three-year-olds in the future. Papa Clem owns room for further improvement on Derby Day, but his BRIS Speed ratings remain a little low. And he wasn't flattered by third-placer Summer Bird (Birdstone), who was beaten less than two lengths and entered the Arkansas Derby off a maiden special weight victory in which he netted a 92 Speed number. Papa Clem could find the Derby class hike too difficult, but I like his natural speed. Bejarano has won multiple riding titles at Churchill, and he's smart enough to seize the initiative if nobody else wants to set the pace. Papa Clem figures to be forwardly placed whether he leads or sits just off of it. Contender breakdown -- I will break the Derby contenders down into four categories (Top Tier, Serious Contenders, Longshot Hopefuls and Poorly Spotted) and will list the runners in each alphabetically. Top Tier: I WANT REVENGE and QUALITY ROAD have distinguished themselves from the rest in my opinion. They're the fastest contenders based on Speed ratings, and their respective victories in the Wood Memorial and Florida Derby were the two best performances I've seen this year. I Want Revenge earned a whopping 113 BRIS Speed rating for his 8 1/2-length romp in the Gotham S. (G3) and a 109 for an extremely troubled-filled yet spectacular victory in the Wood. Bred to relish the 1 1/4-mile distance, the formidable colt closed from last to first in the Wood after spotting his rivals a head start, but I Want Revenge can be placed anywhere with his speed. Look for expect him to be much closer to the engine on May 2 as jockey Joe Talamo keeps an eye on John Velazquez and Quality Road. Velazquez is a perfect fit for Quality Road, and there isn't a horse in the prospective Derby field that is as quick as the bay colt. He would be tracking the leaders with Old Fashioned and/or The Pamplemousse in the line-up, but the pace scenario changed dramatically without those speedballs. In 2002, War Emblem was out galloping along on a short lead, with the late-running Perfect Drift chasing him, and left plenty in reserve for the stretch run, eventually winning off by four lengths. Nobody should be surprised to see Quality Road enjoy a similar trip. If another runner completely sacrifices his chances during the opening furlongs, Quality Road will be content to sit and pounce. Serious Contenders: It's a deep year for Derby contenders, and I'll put five horses in this group. DESERT PARTY (Street Cry [Ire]) will attempt to give Godolphin their first Derby winner. After opening 2009 with a pair of sharp wins in Dubai, he was upset by his stablemate in the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2), but the promising colt gained more fitness-wise in the half-length setback than an easy victory would've provided. The Grade 2 winner is bred to handle the 10-furlong distance, and I'm anxious to see if Desert Party trains well at Churchill. DUNKIRK is talented enough to win, but the unraced juvenile has little seasoning and must bounce back from a grueling runner-up effort in the Florida Derby. Don't be surprised if he does so. Dunkirk offered a breathtaking move on the far turn of the Florida Derby, making up a lot of ground over the speed-favoring oval, and that kind of rally often wins the Kentucky Derby. FRIESAN FIRE will enter the Derby fresh for Larry Jones, who knows how to have a horse ready for his best after saddling the last two Derby runners-up, and there's a lot to like about the improving colt. His BRIS Speed ratings have steadily increased in three starts this season, and the bay colt displayed a tremendous turn of foot leaving the far turn of the Louisiana Derby, winning off by 7 1/4 lengths. Friesan Fire looked like he had plenty more to offer that afternoon, and he's eligible to keep moving forward at Churchill. PAPA CLEM has finished either first or second in four starts since being stretched out to a route in December, and I love Stute's strategy of running him on dirt before the Kentucky Derby. The bay colt showed plenty of heart in the Robert Lewis and Arkansas Derby, and we haven't seen his best yet. PIONEEROF THE NILE will bring excellent credentials into the Derby, rattling off four straight stakes victories, including a one-length score in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), since being transferred to Bob Baffert last fall. His conditioner (a three-time Derby winner) is an advantage, but Pioneerof the Nile will be a no-fig horse with a career-best 96 to his credit. I Want Revenge's Speed ratings increased significantly when he switched to dirt, and Pioneerof the Nile's supporters will look for the same results. We'll find out whether he can handle the new surface. Longshot Hopefuls: I'm discounting their win chances, but the following horses could potentially make their presence felt in the exotics. CHOCOLATE CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) figures to finally get a solid pace up front, but the late runner has never run very fast, generating a career-best 94 Speed rating for his non-threatening second in the Santa Anita Derby. He's out of a Seattle Slew mare, so the added distance may be no problem for the Northern California runner. GENERAL QUARTERS will look to rally from midpack under new rider Julien Leparoux. GIANT OAK (Giant's Causeway) opened the year with a pair of disappointing showings at Fair Grounds, but he gained a measure of redemption with his runner-up effort in the Illinois Derby. The Illinois-bred still appears seriously up against it, but the one-run closer ran well when finishing a close second in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) at Churchill last fall and could pass a lot of horses over the final furlongs in the Derby. HOLD ME BACK would rate more serious consideration if the Derby was held over a synthetic track, but I still respect his late kick. With a couple of solid races under his belt this year, Hold Me Back could get involved late for a minor award. MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) is bred more for sprints than routes, but he exits a smart two-length win in the Illinois Derby and has outrun any pedigree concerns so far. I don't expect him to run his best race at 1 1/4 miles, but I admire how hard he tries every time. REGAL RANSOM (Distorted Humor) recorded a front-running upset over Desert Party in the U.A.E. Derby, but it's difficult to envision him enjoying the same trip and the additional ground is a major concern. He will enter the Derby on the upswing for Saeed bin Suroor, though, and it will be interesting to see how the Kentucky-bred trains at Churchill. WEST SIDE BERNIE (Bernstein) has turned in only bad effort in his career, a sixth-place effort in the Lane's End, and rebounded from the disappointment with an excellent second in the Wood. He's got serious distance concerns stretching out with his pedigree, but the Kelly Breen pupil can finish, earning BRIS Late Pace numbers of 116 and 110 in his career. West Side Bernie rates as a live exotics contender at long odds. WIN WILLY (Monarchos) didn't run back to his Rebel victory when fourth in the Arkansas Derby, and it's difficult to imagine the Canterbury maiden winner surprising on the Derby stage. The Mac Robertson runner has earned century-topping Late Pace numbers in both starts at a route, and he's another late runner to consider for part. Poorly Spotted: I'll put the rest of the Derby field, which could include horses like FLYING PRIVATE (Fusaichi Pegasus), MR. HOT STUFF (Tiznow) and SQUARE EDDIE (Smart Strike), into this self-explanatory group for now. Upcoming -- Saturday's $300,000 Lexington S. (G2) could provide a couple of Derby starters and will mark the return of Square Eddie, who was sidelined in early February due to a left front shin injury. The Doug O'Neill-trained colt likes the main track at Keeneland, winning the Breeders' Futurity (G1) over the Polytrack last October, and Edgar Prado will pick up the mount.
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