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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 8, 2009 by Dick Powell The 135th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) is over and I can't remember a race that left the handicapping world less satisfied. It's not that a 50-1 longshot won but how poorly many of the contenders ran leading to an improbable result. Racing is an outdoor sport and subject to the vagaries of weather. In England last weekend, Newmarket had no rain for a week and the famed Rowley Mile course that the Guineas are run over was rock hard and yielded stakes-record winning times. In Kentucky, rain played havoc with the running of the Derby and led to MINE THAT BIRD's (Birdstone) shocking upset. Early on the card at Churchill on Saturday, it was apparent that speed on the rail was doing well and if you didn't have speed you better stay on the rail as long as possible. The forecast was for the rain to stop around 2 p.m. (EDT) leaving enough time for some of the track to dry out and reverse the early bias. At least that’s what I was hoping for. While the rain did let up some, there was no sun, little, if any, wind and cool weather making it impossible for the track to dry out. Despite all that you might have read about the newly-created Safety Alliance, the Churchill main track was continually sealed with the inner portion of the track getting the most attention. By the time the Derby rolled around, the main track was sealed as if they were expecting a monsoon to hit Louisville. I loved Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker) but was worried about what kind of trip he would get from post 16 on a track that favored the inside path. Apparently Bob Baffert told Garrett Gomez that he would have to break running to have any chance of winning which would run the risk of him using too much energy too early and not have enough for the stretch run. At post time, the speedy Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy) was the 38-10 favorite with Dunkirk (Unbridled's Song) sent off at 52-10 and Pioneerof the Nile at 63-10. While the rest of the runners were all at double-digit odds, the money was spread out amongst the rest leaving many underlays. At the start, Gomez sent Pioneerof the Nile from the gate and secured the best position he could going into the first turn. Dunkirk, who did not look good before the race, broke outward at the start and then stumbled. And Friesan Fire, breaking from post 6, had the ultimate nightmare trip with a poor break which led him to grab a quarter in his hoof, and then was bounced around in traffic during the first quarter mile. Join in the Dance (Sky Mesa) and Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor), serving as rabbits for Dunkirk and Desert Party (Street Cry [Ire]), respectively, went to the front and they gunned the first quarter in :22.98. Despite all the track maintenance, the main track was not yielding fast times so the :22.98 was even faster than it appeared. Garrett Gomez had Pioneerof the Nile in third on the outside in a perfect stalking spot. Perfect on most days but not perfect last Saturday as he was three paths off the rail which had the best footing. Down the backstretch, Hold Me Back (Giant's Causeway) made a gigantic move to get into contention with a half-mile to go and Papa Clem (Smart Strike) was saving ground close to the pace. For the most part, once the field straightened itself out coming out of the clubhouse turn, there were not many changes of position. The two rabbits continued on around the far turn and at that point I thought Gomez was about to win his first Derby. Unlike his races on ProRide where he had to work him constantly, Gomez was in cruise control leaving the three-furlong pole. He could assume the lead any time he wanted and there did not look like there were any menacing moves coming from midpack. He fumbled with his goggles as they approached the top of the stretch and then got busy. Pioneerof the Nile made the lead with a quarter mile to go and for about a furlong I thought he was home. Around the eighth pole he began to get leg weary and Papa Clem and Musket Man (Yonaguska) challenged on the outside. Gomez used all his skills to keep him going and while all this drama was going on, Mine That Bird blew by them all on the rail to win going away by 6 3/4 lengths at 50-1. Uh? Luckily, the NBC blimp shot showed that Mine That Bird did indeed run the entire 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby and did not cut across the infield to pick up the leaders with a furlong to go a la Rosie Ruiz. All over the world, players were checking their programs to see who the #8 horse was. I'm not going to try to explain how Mine That Bird won Saturday's Kentucky Derby. But he did have a few positives in his favor that most of us chose to ignore. He was a graded stakes winner at two going two turns last year and put together a four-race winning streak at Woodbine. This led him to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) where he ran 12th but was only beaten nine lengths while wide throughout. Sold privately to his current owners, he raced twice at Sunland Park in New Mexico where he was beaten both times while racing close to the pace. But on a sloppy track, his pedigree was a standout. Birdstone (Grindstone) is off to a great start with his mud runners, winning 23 percent of the time, and broodmare sire Smart Strike (Mr. Prospector) is a great wet-track influence whose offspring have won 20 percent of their mud starts. And on a track that was favorable to horses racing on the inside, who better than Calvin Borel to guide a horse from dead last to first while staying glued to the fence? In previous two-turn starts, Mine That Bird would be considered a stalker but after breaking poorly and getting bounced around at the start, Borel took him to the back of the pack, out of the spray and geared up for one, big run. And, what a run it was. Despite a track that was playing fast early and slow late, Mine That Bird ran his last half mile under 47 seconds. Yes, at any given point, his magic carpet ride up the rail could have come to a halt if any of the horses in the two-path bore in. But, they didn't. Now that we have seen Borel do this three times in major races (twice aboard Street Sense in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Derby and now aboard Mine That Bird -- all at Churchill Downs), what makes it amazing is not that he is going through holes on the inside but that he is going through on the inside whether the hole opens up or not. Calvin is our version of Evel Knievel, and it is a sight to behold.
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