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THOROUGHBRED BEAT MAY 13, 2009 by James Scully Anticipation -- With the overflow scare over, Thoroughbred racing fans will get the opportunity to see what the filly can do. Kentucky Oaks (G1) heroine RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d’Oro) will be the favorite in Saturday's 134th running of the Preakness S. (G1). Speculation has run as high as $10 million for her recent sales price, and I believe the risk is clearly worth the reward. Rachel Alexandra doesn't own a regal pedigree and there's no telling how she'll perform as a broodmare, but she's got serious skills as a racehorse. And new owner Jess Jackson won't be afraid to run her in big spots against males the rest of the year if she wins on Saturday. That wasn't the case with Rags to Riches a couple of seasons back. She did step up to face the boys in the Belmont S. (G1), but Todd Pletcher made it clear that she was going back to female competition following her historic victory. The year-old male division was strong in 2007, with Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday providing plenty of depth, and Rags to Riches wasn't going to beat up on those rivals the rest of the year. Things look much different in 2009 as the Kentucky Derby (G1) delivered a real curveball in terms of the three-year-old male hierarchy; MINE THAT BIRD's (Birdstone) performance threw the overall quality of the sophomore division into serious doubt. Many were quick to attribute the result to the "off" track on Derby Day, but come on -- there's no way that little New Mexico-based gelding should be able to easily defeat a high-class group of three-year-olds on any surface. Mine That Bird didn't merely upset his 18 rivals; he crushed them by a 6 3/4-length win margin. Rachel Alexandra earned a 111 BRIS Speed rating for her 20 1/4-length romp in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), and the sky's the limit for her if she wins the Preakness in convincing fashion. The Belmont S. (G1), Haskell Invitational (G1) and Travers S. (G1) all become winnable targets, and there will be a lot more Grade 1s down the road if she remains healthy. The 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) will be held over the bay filly's favorite track, Churchill Downs. Rachel Alexandra looks as special as they come, but she's been beating up on questionable company and will receive a serious class check against the likes of PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker), PAPA CLEM (Smart Strike), MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) and Mine That Bird. I think she'll pass the test with flying colors, but we'll find out on Saturday. Lukas logic -- I love hearing the D. Wayne Lukas logic; the Hall of Fame trainer always proves priceless with his rationale for running every horse he can in major races. FLYING PRIVATE (Fusaichi Pegasus) didn't beat a horse in the Derby -- even the injured and bloodied Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy) finished in front of him after being under a gallop the last three-quarters of a mile -- but Lukas remains confident that his maiden winner belongs in the Preakness field. "We didn't get we expected to get in the Derby," Lukas said of the 43 3/4-length setback that Flying Private suffered. "It wasn't him, but we were optimistic about getting it done in the Derby so we are hopeful the real Flying Private will show up in the Preakness." Flying Private at least owns modest qualifications, finishing second in the Lane’s End S. (G2) at Turfway Park in March, but Lukas took it a step further on Sunday when announcing his intention to enter LUV GOV (Ten Most Wanted) in the Preakness. The colt dropped his first nine career starts before finally breaking through with a maiden special weight win on May 2. "We think he's our Belmont S. horse and we are looking for another spot to get a good one in," Lukas said with a straight face. "He's truly a mile-and-a-half, a mile-and-three-sixteenths horse. And he ran a huge race on Derby Day. He actually ran better than most of the horses in the Derby. We're going to give him a shot to go." Luv Gov has never raced past 1 1/16 miles, and he appears fortunate to have caught a sloppy track and a soft spot on Derby Day. His first nine losses came over fast tracks, with a career-best 89 BRIS Speed rating to his credit, and the runner-up and third-place finishers from his maiden score are a combined zero-for-12. Nobody explains it like Lukas, though, and his approach is unwavering -- you can't win these races from the barn, so run 'em if you can. Of course, there is a different approach. Unbeaten HULL (Pulpit) could've easily gone to the Preakness off his visually impressive win in the Derby Trial (G3), but his owners explained Monday that they were putting the horse first. "I'd like to be able to run him in the Preakness, but I don't want to screw the horse up," Team Valor's Barry Irwin said in announcing the decision to bypass the Preakness. "It's going to be our horse's first time around two turns and I just think there's too much speed in there and I'm not comfortable. He's only run three times, so I don't want to mess him up." Charitable Peter Pan -- CHARITABLE MAN (Lemon Drop Kid) is formally back, turning in a superb effort to win Saturday's Peter Pan (G2) by 3 3/4 lengths, and he could go favored in the June 6 Belmont if Rachel Alexandra and Pioneerof the Nile both lose in the Preakness. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee is three-for-three on dirt, winning his career bow by 11 1/2-lengths prior to an authoritative one-length decision last September, and the Virginia-bred colt registered a career-best 103 BRIS Speed rating in the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan. Sidelined last fall by a saucer fracture, Charitable Man couldn't make it back to the races until April, returning with a seventh in the Blue Grass S. (G1) over the Polytrack at Keeneland, but he shrugged off that disappointment in grand style Saturday. The dark bay stalked in second behind quick splits in :23 1/5, :44 4/5 and 1:08 4/5 before seizing the lead at the top of the stretch, but the late-running IMPERIAL COUNCIL (Empire Maker) was uncorking his rally at this point and appeared ready to capitalize upon the fast pace. Charitable Man dismissed any notion of tight finish, drawing off from the runner-up over the final furlongs. Don't be surprised to see Charitable Man develop into a major player in the three-year-old division. Einstein -- Three-year-olds take center stage at this time of the year, but I also wanted to pay tribute to EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck). The seven-year-old horse is on the verge of a historic sweep of the three premiere events for older horses at Churchill Downs. Winner of the biggest race of the Churchill fall meet, the Clark H. (G2) last November over the main track, Einstein captured the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), the top turf race at Churchill Downs, for the second consecutive year on May 2. Next up is the June 13 Stephen Foster H. (G1), the main event of the spring/summer meet after Derby weekend. Dirt or turf, it doesn't matter to Einstein, and the Helen Pitts-Blasi pupil proved to be a triple-surface supremo when garnering the prestigious Santa Anita H. (G1) over a synthetic track in March. Needless to say, no horse has ever won the Foster, Woodford Reserve and Clark, and Churchill Downs should consider renaming the Foster after Einstein if he wins it. Created in 1982, the race doesn't own a long history, but it's carved out quite a niche on the summer calendar, with recent Horse of the Year winners Curlin, Saint Liam and Mineshaft showing up in the entry box. It's named for the famous songwriter from Pennsylvania. He wrote "My Old Kentucky Home," but Stephen Foster had little connection to the state of Kentucky otherwise. Einstein is poised to become a Churchill legend.
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