|
|
CHURCHILL NOTEBOOK MAY 14, 2009 by Frank Cotolo Some bettors winced when the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission approved a third request by Churchill in a month to drop live race dates from the current meet. Churchill canceled all of its Wednesday cards through July 1, as well as a card on Thursday, May 28. Churchill was also allowed to cut $425,000 from its stakes schedule. Churchill is not immune to the current sagging economic atmosphere. Since this meet began two weeks ago, there have been problems filling fields and races have been cut here and there due to a lag in entries. Even the weather has been a problem, with Churchill being forced to cancel the last five races on the on May 8 program because of heavy rain and the threat of further severe weather in the area. A horse shortage, however, is not specific to Churchill; it is a problem reverberating through the sport, especially at tracks without slots-aided purses. Look further west to see the problem crippling West Coast tracks that were once every bit as popular and plentiful with horses as Churchill. But the seasoned horseplayer, if he or she has learned anything, knows how to adapt. This is why bettors should begin to adjust to less racing, seeing it as having more opportunities for value spot plays and rewarding, even if smaller, face-value exotics. Less racing could, in fact, support more winning and professional-minded, if not full-time, players know this. So wince not and embrace the new complexion at Churchill. Now is not the time to back off; now is the time to play. Track stats Off-the-pace and close-to-the-pace winners continued to dominate all events since May 6, unrelated to any weather conditions. Dashes were more likely to produce wire-to-wire winners, but the sample is so small that it is impossible to see a definitive trend. There is little doubt that speed continues to fuel public choices and that a significant number of well-bet horses have not totally tanked using any style of racing. From May 6 through May 10, at least two favorites won each day. On May 10, there were four. But on May 10 there were also nine winners off the pace as opposed to only one wire-to-wire effort. The win rate of favorites through 118 races is 29.6 percent. The remarkable figure does not waver even in the wake of lesser races. Trainer Bret Calhoun has sent out five winners from 10 starters and that is enough to make him the top percentage trainer as of this writing with a 50-percent figure. He has had one place and two thirds, so keep an eye on his entries; they are playing a role across the board. Next on the percentage table are Jeff Talley (33 percent), Joe Woodward (27 percent) and Ian Wilkes (25 percent). Wilkes also happens to have the second largest earning total so far with $350,694. There is buzz about apprentice-jockey Christian Santiago Reyes. The 19-year-old,
who is mostly riding for Wesley Ward, has won seven of 30 mounts (23
Coming up Saturday 's $100,000 Matt Winn S., for sophomores at seven furlongs, will be the first stakes to be presented since Kentucky Derby weekend. The highly touted CASH REFUND (Petionville), a Steve Margolis-trained colt getting a 106 BRIS Speed figure from an allowance win on opening day, is up for the chore. That race was just the second start of his career. His main opponent is multiple Grade 2 winner CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN (Candy Ride), and he's our choice, especially considering trainer Wilkes' current success rate (see track stats above). The gelding exits a solid score in the seven-furlong Bay Shore S. (G3) at Aqueduct in April. HORSES TO WATCH Saturday (5/9) 4TH -- BUTTON DANCER (Runaway Groom) had a terrible start and it ruined its finish. A valiant try to make up ground was observed and another chance with a clean start suggests a winning finish. 6TH -- INDEMAND (Saarland) was off badly but recovered and drove on to compete while traveling four wide. Thought there was a little left at the end of her third-place finish. TERRELL CHENEY (Mineshaft) also experienced trouble in a field where she fit firmly. The Steve Asmussen barn claimed her, so look for a strong effort next race. 8TH -- YOGISSPLASHOFGOLD (Touch Gold) had to battle five deep to stay with this field and that was too much. This was the first Churchill start from Gulfstream and if she stays here, it could mean trouble for her rivals at a shorter trip. 9TH -- SACREDNESS (Holy Bull) started this race in a three-wide duel and could not sustain her speed with the loss of ground. At 9-1, she turned in a creditable effort. Sunday (5/10) 1ST -- MYLILMONEYMAKER (Outflanker) got off to a hideous start, had trouble getting into full stride and still burrowed to the top while wide on the turn. No wonder she was just beaten late. The mare was claimed and handed over to trainer Woodward, who is bound to have her ready to win next out. 3RD -- EXECUTIVE CHIEF (Chief Seattle) was 6-1 but ran like a dead-on favorite, dueling boldly into the stretch and showing much promise in his first start at Churchill after shipping in from Fair Grounds. 4TH -- I KNOW IT'S TRUE (IS It True) was jammed in the chute and the bad start caused him to take time settling and left him rushing to get back into the flow. A good try, sans the bad departure, can be expected next time.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
