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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 7, 2010 by Dick Powell The 2002 Kentucky Derby (G1) was about the most wide-open ever run from a pari-mutuel standpoint. Not only did the favorite, Harlan's Holiday, go off at 6.00 to 1, but five other horses went off between 6.90 to 1 and 8.20 to 1. But last Saturday's 136th running of the Run for the Roses was even more spread out in the wagering pools. Incredibly, on Friday, when the early Derby wagering began, it was SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon) that was the 7-1 favorite. As Friday wore on, the expected correction never really came and we went to bed with Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike) as the co-favorites in the wagering at 8-1. Saturday saw a continuation of the trend as the betting public ignored the choices of the public handicappers and the various speed figures and seemed to be saying, "In Calvin we trust." Calvin Borel won two of the last three Kentucky Derbies and he had a live mount on Saturday with Super Saver. You would think with his gaudy record at Churchill Downs and his recent Derby success, most trainers of classic sophomores would be looking to secure Calvin's services on the first Saturday in May, but that has not been the case. Last year, he wound up riding 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird (Birdstone) as the big-name trainers went elsewhere. The old saying of "Fool me once; shame on you. Fool me twice; shame on me" doesn't seem to apply to horse racing as Calvin still struggles to secure live mounts on racing biggest days. Last year at the Breeders' Cup, Calvin did not have a single mount on Friday's card and his only mounts on Saturday were 24-1 Ready's Echo (More Than Ready), second in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), and 14-1 Mine that Bird in the Classic. On a weekend with mostly full fields, the trainers of racing's best horses only gave Calvin two opportunities. But the betting public on Saturday was far wiser and Calvin's Super Saver was bet consistently throughout the day. At post time, Lookin at Lucky went down to 6.30 to 1, which made him the biggest priced favorite in Derby history, and Super Saver went off at exactly 8.00 to 1. The only other starter to go off at single-digit odds was Sidney's Candy (Candy Ride [Arg]) at 9.50 to 1. Like all well advertised "great betting races," the longest price was only 31.60 to 1 as the money was spread out. The public had the race bet correctly as the betting was reflective of the merits of the individual horses. Yes, Super Saver was originally listed at 15-1 but that did not take into effect the "Calvin factor." Saturday saw heavy rain turn the track very sloppy. Most of the winners on the main track came from off the pace and down the middle of the track. Except for ZIMMER (Empire Maker), who made a left turn out of the gate to get to the rail and took the lead he never relinquished down the backstretch, and ATTA BOY ROY (Tribunal), who outbroke the field from post 9 to get over to the rail and never looked back. Both horses were ridden by Calvin. So, if you are a trip handicapper and like to make judgments on how the track was playing, it seemed to be favoring wide closers unless Calvin was riding and then, inside speed was winning. This isn't really as contradictory as it sounds. Yes, saving ground is the shortest way around the track. But Calvin does something I cannot explain. He puts his horses on the rail and yet gets them to relax while racing right up against it. His horses relax so much that he is even able to hit them right-handed while they are racing on the rail. Borel has incredible balance in the saddle and through hands and heels he is able to communicate with his mounts. Before the Derby was run on Saturday, NBC provided a shot of the main track that showed that the inside paths had been sealed and the rest of the track was left open. As the rain hit about an hour before post time, it wasn't penetrating the inside paths as it looked like one tractor had gone around and sealed the inside and none of the other tractors had been out for a while. So, before post time, other than the fact that Super Saver was going off at about half the price you thought he would be, you had to think that everything was going his way. When the gate opened and Calvin broke him on top, there would be no excuses for him as everything could not have been scripted any better. Once Calvin got out of the gate, he got Super Saver to relax off a demanding pace of :22.63 into a strong headwind. While Conveyance (Indian Charlie) and Sidney's Candy dueled for the lead around the clubhouse turn, Calvin had Super Saver glued to the fence while getting him to settle. Down the backstretch, NBC showed a great overhead shot of the field and you could see Super Saver on the rail in sixth with no one around him. He was in the bubble that Jerry Bailey talked about finding when he rode the Derby. With six furlongs in 1:10.58, the speed suddenly stopped around the far turn and Willie Martinez had Noble's Promise (Cuvee) in a drive with the filly Devil May Care (Malibu Moon) on his outside. Borel was picking up the leaders on the rail but had to come off it when he went by Conveyance. As soon as he did, he went right back to the rail and engaged Noble's Promise turning for home. With a quarter mile to run, Super Saver had a huge pedigree edge over Noble's Promise, who began to tire. Borel opened up a two-length lead at the furlong pole and was running on strong. From the back of the pack, Make Music for Me (Bernstein) was making up tons of ground, Lookin at Lucky was doing everything he could to overcome a nightmare trip and Ice Box (Pulpit) was running fastest of all despite being stopped twice. But it was all for naught as the horse that made his own luck held off the ones that could not and Super Saver won by 2 1/2 lengths, giving trainer Todd Pletcher his first Derby win and Borel a record third win in four years. Ice Box was second for Nick Zito, who always seems to fire his best shot in the big races, and Paddy O'Prado lived up to the week-long hype about how well he was training with an excellent third. Super Saver's final time of 2:04.45 was one of the slowest in recent years but considering that they had to run back into a strong headwind in the final quarter mile, it might be better than it looked. He earned a career-best BRIS Speed rating of 105. This year's Derby chart shows that most of the runners that finished in the top 10 were in the bottom 10 early in the race. The notable exceptions were Super Saver and Noble's Promise. The pace melted down and you can see it in the BRIS Pace ratings as the early pace was +18 and the mid pace was +10. Super Saver's Pace numbers were 97, 114, 86, which is excellent. Ice Box's were 64, 102, 93 so even though it looked like Ice Box was going to blow by Super Saver if the race were any longer, Super Saver used a lot of energy to open up the gap between them that turned out to be insurmountable. Super Saver's final Pace numbers of 114 and 86 shows a horse that could go even farther with a slower early pace. When Calvin Borel says after the race that Super Saver is going to win the Triple Crown, something that hasn't been done since 1978, who are we to argue with him. Ignore him at your own risk.
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