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ARLINGTON PARK NOTEBOOK MAY 11, 2010 by David Zenner With two racing weeks in the books for the 2010 season at Arlington Park, let's take a look at how the Polytrack has been playing currently versus its three-year historical numbers. Through the first eight racing programs at the Chicagoland oval, there have been 63 races contested over the synthetic main track with 64 winners as the result of one dead heat for the top spot. While speed continues to dominate with 39 percent of those winners being front-runners, the track has begun to moderate with week 2 showing less of a preponderance of gate-to-wire winners than week 1. Inside position has proven to hold an advantage over outside runners through the first two weeks, 58 percent to 42 percent, though again that has also settled down in week 2 with the numbers starting to moderate. Interestingly, favorites are performing at the industry standard 33 percent. The way the track has played during the first two weeks of the current meet flies in the face of the three-year averages on Arlington's Polytrack (the surface was installed prior to the 2007 season) which show the track to be fair to all type of runners. With 2,151 races over the surface in its first three seasons, winners were spread evenly between stalkers (28.3 percent), front runners (27.6 percent) and closers (26.5 percent), with pressers accounting for the remaining 17.6 percent. The historical inside/outside ratio of 56 percent/44 percent is consistent with the current meet while favorites in the last three years have only accounted for 31 percent of Polytrack winners. The turf course has been put to good use with 19 races already run over the infield green and only one race taken off due to weather conditions. The rail has been set well outside all eight racing days contested so far in 2010. Not surprisingly, the turf has played relatively evenly with stalkers and closers making up 53 percent of the winners while front-runners and pressers have brought home the remaining 47 percent of the victors. With the rail as far out in the course as it has been (between 49 and 87 feet in the first two weeks), it is no surprise that inside has fared much better with 73 percent of the winners staying as close to the fence as possible. Favorites are just slightly tougher to bring home thus far on the lawn, with only 31 percent of the public's choices scoring. On the human side of the ledger, just five wins separate the top 13 riders with defending champ Junior Alvarado holding a one-win lead over Arlington newcomer Michael Baze, who has proven to be a welcome addition to the jockey colony. Two-time Hawthorne titlist Tanner Riggs has carried his momentum over from the Southside track and continues to impress. Again no surprise to see eight-time Arlington training champ Wayne Catalano as part of the troika of leaders through two weeks along with Nick Canani, who trains for leading owner Frank Calabrese, and Larry Rivelli, whose stock continues to get better with each season. HORSES TO WATCH Thursday (5/6) 2ND -- TIGER STRIKE (Volponi) closed well against the speed bias to pick up a share. Worth a play back if track is playing fair. Sunday (5/9) 6TH -- STREET COMMANDER (Wall Street Dancer) bumped and checked in stretch repeatedly, losing any chance of getting up. 10TH -- JEREMY'S KITTEN (Kitten's Joy) well bet in local bow. Very rank in first turn, drifting very wide there and again in stretch. Watch for return with blinkers.
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