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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 14, 2010 by Dick Powell Unlike this year's Kentucky Derby (G1), where we were virtually guaranteed a wet track days ahead of time as rain pounded the Louisville, Kentucky area, Saturday's Preakness S. (G1) could be run over any kind of main track. With various forecasts predicting rain and thunderstorms on Friday but hotter, drier weather on Saturday, I am handicapping for a fast track at Pimlico. Derby winner SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon) has been installed as the 5-2 favorite after drawing post eight against 11 rivals; sounds about right. Hard-luck Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike) drew post 7 with new rider Martin Garcia and is the 3-1 second choice on the morning line. Paddy O'Prado (El Prado [Ire]) was a terrific third in the Derby despite all kinds of traffic problems at the top of the stretch when the early pacesetters backed up into him and is the 9-2 third choice from post 10. I don't see this year's Preakness as an opportunity to be creative and come up with an obscure horse at a big price. I think the morning lines for the first three choices are legitimate and accurate. For many of the same reasons that I liked Super Saver to win the Derby, I like him again on Saturday and he will be my choice to win the 135th running for the Black Eyed Susans. Yes, everything went according to plan in the Derby as countless horses had their hopes dashed due to traffic or the wet track. But Super Saver makes his own luck being quick away from the gate and a rider that is not afraid to put him in a winning spot. Now that trainer Todd Pletcher has been able to get him to relax early in his races, Super Saver has too many things going for him to deny him the second leg of racing's Triple Crown. Once the field of 12 was drawn on Wednesday, the lack of pace in this year's Preakness jumps off the page. It looks like Calvin Borel can break Super Saver and then see if Edgar Prado goes to the front from post 5 aboard Yawanna Twist (Yonaguska). From his outside, the only horse with any early pace would be Paddy O'Prado if Kent Desormeaux sends him from post 10. Either way, Super Saver has shown already that he can win on the front end or sit just off the pace and win from there. When you consider how lightly-raced Super Saver is, I doubt if the effort in the Derby knocks him back and results in a dull effort on Saturday. The Derby was only his third start of 2010 and his ability to glide over the track enables him to recover faster from a race than a heavy-bodied runner. He's already shown an ability to run over any kind of dirt track. And remember, Borel is more than a one-trick Kentucky Derby pony as he won last year's Preakness aboard Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) with a perfectly-timed pace-pressing trip. Look for him to do the same on Saturday. Lookin at Lucky had a horrible trip in the Derby from post 1 and the expectation is that he will have a less adventurous journey from post 7. Trainer Bob Baffert removed blinkers for the Derby and now removes Garrett Gomez for the Preakness. If any of this made sense I could buy into it but it looks like he's grasping at straws. Plus, he announced that win or lose, Lookin at Lucky will not be going on to the Belmont. The New York Racing Association will be rooting for Super Saver to win on Saturday and set up a run at the Triple Crown in the Belmont S. (G1), but the last horse they want to see win is Lookin at Lucky who will pass their race. Paddy O'Prado is interesting but if the track is fast on Saturday, it will be the first time that he has raced over a fast main track. Both of his dirt track starts were on sloppy tracks and it will be interesting to see what this colt that seems to be bred more for turf/synthetic than dirt will do on Saturday. Dublin (Afleet Alex) is another hard-luck horse that drew post 17 in the Derby and now draws the extreme outside in the Preakness. Lookin at Lucky's loss is Dublin's gain as Wayne Lukas picks up Garrett Gomez as he searches for his sixth Preakness win. I just think that he's on a down cycle and can't use him. Picking the favorite makes it hard to go with the next most logical choice in the gimmicks so I am going to put Super Saver on top of Yawanna Twist (Yonaguska) and Schoolyard Dreams (Stephen Got Even). Yawanna Twist had some early speed and comes into the Preakness off only four career starts. His second behind Awesome Act (Awesome Again) in the Gotham S. (G3) was excellent and then he was second in the Illinois Derby (G2) next out. He's been rested up and this is where trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. is at his most dangerous. Yawanna Twist was not eligible for the Derby because of the lack of graded stakes earnings but now could be a dangerous pace factor in here at generous odds. Schoolyard Dreams is also coming in off a seven-week rest for Derek Ryan. He drew inside and shows a win over Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) when he was outfinished by Odysseus (Malibu Moon) in the closest photo finish of the year. He was an even fourth in the Wood but has shown that he can compete at the highest levels and should save ground from the inside. My betting strategy will be a large win bet on Super Saver, exactas with Super Saver underneath Yawanna Twist and Schoolyard Dreams to protect the win bet and a small exacta box with all three. Like most years, the Preakness should be fun to watch but won't provide the generous overlays that the Derby is known for.
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