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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 21, 2010 by Dick Powell Preakness (G1) 135 is now in the books and that hissing sound you hear is the air going out of the Triple Crown balloon. Not only did Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Super Saver (Maria's Mon) not win but the horse that did, LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike), will not be contesting the Belmont S. (G1), leaving the final leg searching for relevance. With a dozen horses entered in the Preakness, the betting public settled on Super Saver as the 19-10 favorite and Lookin at Lucky next at 24-10. There were only two other horses at single-digit odds as Paddy O'Prado (El Prado [Ire]) went off at 75-10 and Dublin (Afleet Alex) at 98-10. After two hours of personality features, NBC did a terrific job as the horses were going to the gate. Donna Barton-Brothers said that she thought Super Saver looked "drawn" -- meaning that he was not carrying much flesh and might have been dehydrated. With less than five minutes to post, this was "nice to have" information. Had it been available two days earlier, it would have been "must have" information. Still, Donna went against the grain of commentators aboard a pony saying that everyone looked terrific. Her and Tom Hammond also showed how close the far outside post was to the outer rail and detailed how Dublin has a habit breaking erratically in his races. Sure enough, the gate opened and Dublin headed to the outer rail from post 12, forcing new rider Garrett Gomez to grab him hard and waste early energy. Just like in the Derby, Super Saver broke beautifully but the field that looked paceless on paper had First Dude (Stephen Got Even) gun to the front and assume command going into the first turn. Unlike the Derby, when Calvin Borel broke well and then took back, he went right after the leader through a first quarter in :22.91. Ramon Dominguez, who had a great day at Pimlico winning three turf races including the Dixie H. (G2) aboard 14-1 STRIKE A DEAL (Smart Strike), was able to get First Dude to settle into a rhythmic stride through a half in :46.47 and six furlongs in 1:11.22. Borel tried to go with him around the far turn and you could see that it was not going to be Super Saver's day as he failed to keep up. On the far outside, Martin Garcia had Lookin at Lucky cruising past horses with little effort and last year's champion juvenile was back on his game. He was so good on Saturday that he prematurely took the lead at the top of the stretch and still was able to repel all challenges and win convincingly. Amazingly, the 24-1 First Dude was able to hold on for second despite strong rallies from Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil) and Yawanna Twist (Yonaguska) and completed a generous $188.60 exacta. I had this year's Preakness all wrong when I picked Super Saver to win. When my key horse runs out of the money, I am sunk no matter who else I liked. What had me mumbling to myself after the race was not backing First Dude to be in the mix. Back in late February, I wrote a glowing column about Fly Down (Mineshaft) and how good he looked winning a first-level allowance race at Gulfstream. Fly Down romped in the Dwyer S. (G2) last out and it made sense that his win flattered First Dude, who was only a head behind him in Florida. I actually bet First Dude in the Blue Grass S. (G1) in his last start but for some reason didn't use him in the Preakness. Lookin at Lucky covered the 1 3/16 miles in 1:55.47 and earned a BRIS Speed rating of 104. Like most offspring of Smart Strike (Mr. Prospector), he'll run on anything and with Bob Baffert giving him a break, he should be a major force for the rest of the year. Two horses that raced on the undercard are worth mentioning. In the Chick Lang S. (G3), COMEDERO (Posse) ran his record to seven for eight when he pulled away in the stretch after leading all the way. The Arkansas-bred has won all his sprint races by daylight and on Saturday he showed he was the real deal when challenged early. Can't wait for the King's Bishop S. (G1) at Saratoga in August going seven furlongs. BLAME (Arch) finished up last year in great form when he beat older horses in the Clark H. (G2) at Churchill in November. He returned to the races for Al Stall Jr. on Saturday in the William D. Schaefer H. (G3) and was an easy winner in fast time with Garrett Gomez up. Considering how weak the male, dirt, handicap horses are, he could be sitting on a big year. Speaking of the King's Bishop, Steve Asmussen should have a major contender with THESKYHASNOLIMIT (Sky Mesa), winner of last Saturday's Matt Winn S. at Churchill. Sitting in fourth for Shaun Bridgmohan, he cruised up to the leaders approaching the top of the stretch with little effort. Unfortunately, he was lugging in with every stride and Bridgmohan had to spend most of his energy in keeping him from mugging the horses to his inside. Once straightened away, he battled with Cool Bullet (Red Bullet) and put him away in the final yards to win by three-quarters of a length in 1:22.29. He only earned a BRIS Speed rating of 98, but it was a visually impressive performance in his first start in six months. Cool Bullet, who won the Hansel S. at Turfway Park last out in blazing fast time, should also be a major force in the sophomore sprint ranks. Monmouth Park kicks off its 2010 meet on Saturday and it will be interesting to watch and wager on high class races that are run three days a week. My interest in this year's meet is the ability to use the four days off to do a lot of work on videos and charts of their races. I hope their 13-race extravaganza is only an opening day occurrence and will not be repeated. The industry constantly laments the time between races so it decides to go with 13 races on a day when Monmouth will be getting an inordinate amount of attention. Maybe they can have a meal deal that includes dinner with lunch because it's going to be a long day. Maybe I'll use the four days off to just rest up.
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