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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JULY 30, 2010

by Dick Powell

Most of the better turf riders are what you would designate as "finesse" riders. Julien Leparoux comes to mind as someone who deftly moves his horses in and out of traffic while trying to save ground. Ramon Dominguez is another that fits the bill.

But, then, there is Garrett Gomez. If you have the ability to go back and watch Saratoga's 4TH race on Wednesday; please do. There's finesse and then there's Garrett.

The 4TH race was your standard fare turf race up here -- $35,000 claimers that have not won two races lifetime going 1 1/16 miles on the Mellon turf course. Gomez was aboard number 4, QUICK DELIVERY (Distorted Humor), a class dropdown from Al Stall Jr. who looked like he fit very well with these.

Breaking from post 4, Gomez was able to get over to the hedge and save ground around the first turn. He began to inch his way into contention going into the far turn, but the field bunched up and he had nowhere to go. He made steady progress to the back of the back which is where he was at the top of the stretch.

At this point, Gomez swung Quick Delivery to the outside and began a furious ride to get him moving. You could see he was making up ground as they neared the eighth-pole, but there was way too much to do as Eibar Coa had Motion Play (Trippi) loose on the lead with time running out. According to the chart of the race, Quick Delivery was still ninth and last at the stretch call but Gomez was riding him like it was the Kentucky Derby (G1).

With giant, quick strides, Quick Delivery ate up a ton of ground and went right on by to win by a half-length. I don't want to use a word that has a negative connotation for Gomez's ride since there was nothing negative about it. Let's call it "energetic," but it has to be seen to be believed. Quick Delivery was going to win and Gomez was going to make him do it. It might have only been the 4TH race on a Wednesday which did not draw a big crowd, since the meet opened last week on Friday, but please go back and watch it again.

***

One reason I like to bet maiden special weight races is that the human element is supremely important. With few starts or no starts at all, the maiden horse's connections become more important than they do with more experienced horses. I live and die by the trainer information in the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances -- especially the trainer's record with first-time and second-time starters.

Chad Brown is a 10 percent trainer with first time starters. He debuted WINNING TOUCH (Tale of the Cat) in Saturday's 10TH race at Saratoga and he was a very game winner going six furlongs in 1:09.57. Tale of the Cat sires 16 percent first-out winners, so the pedigree was certainly there.

On Sunday, Brown sent out first-time starter YAWKEY WAY (Grand Slam) in the 2ND race. Grand Slam is a 12 percent sire of first-time winners and the dam's only other foal to race was a winner, so she was playable. Once again, Brown got the job done as she cruised to a 5 1/2-length victory in good time.

Next up was the 6TH race, a $35,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds and up going six furlongs on the main track. Once again, Brown was represented by a first time starter -- STAND PROUD (Tale of the Cat), who was once a $270,000 yearling but making a very belated debut for a price tag. Once again, Brown won with a first-time starter as Stand Proud rallied from far back to get up to win by a neck and pay $27.

So Chad Brown, a 10 percent trainer of first-time starters, wins three straight races where he entered first-time starters at Saratoga. According to BRIS, Brown is now a 13 percent trainer of first-time starters with a healthy flat-bet profit.

***

Sophomore males will be in action this weekend; both at Saratoga and Monmouth Park. Saratoga will host the Jim Dandy S. (G2) on Saturday while Monmouth hosts its marquee event, the Haskell Invitational (G1), on Sunday.

The Jim Dandy has attracted a field of nine and is an intriguing event. While the winners of the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) will be at the Haskell, the Jim Dandy could uncover the emerging stars of the division.

AFLEET EXPRESS (Afleet Alex) has won his last two starts, including his stakes and two-turn debut when he won the Pegasus S. (G3) at Monmouth last out for Jimmy Jerkens. He's trained brilliantly since then, including a seven-furlong work in 1:25 3/5 on the Saratoga main track last Friday. He draws post 2 and gets the red-hot Javier Castellano in the irons. His last two BRIS Speed Ratings of 113 and 105 put him at the top of his division.

STORMY'S MAJESTY (Stormy Atlantic) is a New York-bred that has won all three of his career starts including a blowout win going a mile in very fast time off a long layoff last out when he earned a 102 BRIS Speed Rating.

AIKENITE (Yes It's True) has been placed multiple times in graded stakes company for Todd Pletcher. He won his last start at Belmont going a mile in decent time and when he's right, he has a good, late kick.

A LITTLE WARM (Stormin Fever) was a sensational winner at Delaware Park going two turns in fast time and earned a career-best BRIS Speed Rating of 109. Coupled with his second in the Louisiana Derby (G2), when he beat eventual Belmont S. (G1) winner DROSSELMEYER (Distorted Humor), he certainly appears ready to take on the top of his division.

MINER'S RESERVE (Mineshaft) was a sharp winner at Belmont two starts back when he earned a BRIS Speed Rating of 105, then came back to run second behind A Little Warm while earning a BRIS Speed Rating of 106. He's still a little headstrong, but if he's ever able to relax early, he'll join the elite of the division.

WINSLOW HOMER (Unbridled's Song) looked to be a good one when he won the Holy Bull S. (G3) at Gulfstream, but then went on the shelf for five months. He reappeared in the Iowa Derby (G3), where he was a distant third when running against a severe bias, and should be fit from that effort.

FRIEND OR FOE (Friends Lake) is another New York-bred that is undefeated in three starts that is training well for John Kimmel.

FLY DOWN (Mineshaft) just missed winning the Belmont after beating Drosselmeyer by six lengths in his prior start. His BRIS Speed Rating in the Belmont was only a 96 and he'll have trouble overcoming post 9.

Finally, down in post 1, is STEINBECK (Ire) (Footstepsinthesand [GB]) who ships in from Ireland for Aidan O'Brien. He just missed winning the Dewhurst S. (G1) in only his second career start and then ran into the red-hot Canford Cliffs (Tagula) in his first two starts this year. Canford Cliffs won his third straight Group 1 stakes going a mile on Wednesday at Goodwood when he won the Sussex S. (Eng-G1) over Rip Van Winkle (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]).

Steinbeck's pedigree doesn't suggest much affinity for dirt racing, but he has shown speed in his prior turf starts and gets first-time Lasix and Garrett Gomez.

I'm looking for Afleet Express to run a big race for Jimmy Jerkens and win the Jim Dandy. His post position, tactical speed and stamina should be too tough for these.

Down at the Jersey Shore, the situation is different as two of the three winners of this year's Triple Crown races show up for the $1 million purse. SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon) will try to emulate past WinStar Farm's winners Bluegrass Cat and Any Given Saturday. Winner of this year's Derby, he came up short in the Preakness when he did not appear to be himself on short rest and has had plenty of time to regain his form.

LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) was the juvenile champion last year and then lost all chance in the Derby when he drew poorly. He redeemed himself with a win in the Preakness and is training brilliantly for this. Trainer Bob Baffert has won three renewals of the Haskell and has been pointing for this race since skipping the Belmont. Remember this is a colt that was born on May 27, so anything he accomplished in the Triple Crown was amazing.

ICE BOX (Pulpit) was unlucky in the Derby when he could not overcome traffic problems. He finished furiously to get second and then appeared to become undone in the now-defunct detention barn for the Belmont. Nick Zito has him on his toes for this.

TRAPPE SHOT (Tapit) has won four of five starts including the Long Branch S. at Monmouth. He's shown signs of brilliance and had a good workout at Saratoga for Kiaran McLaughlin before shipping down. AFLEET AGAIN (Afleet Alex) dives into the deep water after running second in the Pegasus. If Afleet Express wins the Jim Dandy the day before, it would certainly strengthen the form of Afleet Again a day later in the Haskell.

I think Super Saver has too many things going for him in the Haskell. He has gate speed that enables Calvin Borel to take up anywhere he wants with a pedigree that was able to navigate 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May. He should be very sharp off the layoff and hard to catch in the Haskell.


 


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