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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS AUGUST 6, 2010 by Dick Powell For some reason I was never real impressed by LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike). Even after a terrific juvenile year where, if it were not for drawing post 13 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) he would have had one of the all-time great juvenile campaigns, I still was not as impressed as I should have been. He began this year with a win in the Rebel S. (G2) at Oaklawn Park in his dirt debut when he was sawed off down the backstretch. This was one of those classic "glass half-filled/half-empty" races. I mistakenly thought it was half empty since he was only able to get up at the wire, ignoring his toughness and tenacity. In the Santa Anita Derby (G1), his former rider, Garrett Gomez, got him into all kinds of trouble again as he had to take up around the far turn and was a well-beaten third. Yes, he had trouble but he wasn't going to catch SIDNEY'S CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) anyway. When Lookin at Lucky drew post 1 for the Kentucky Derby (G1), he was a complete toss for me and at least I was right about that. He had a nightmare trip when slammed multiple times from outside horses and did well to finish sixth. Now it was on to the Preakness (G1) and trainer Bob Baffert made the courageous decision to replace Gomez with Martin Garcia as a way to change the karma of his hard-luck horse. Lookin at Lucky responded with a sensational win in the Preakness when Garcia kept him wide and out of trouble. He showed that he is a great horse that can relax early and deliver a devastating kick. With seven victories in 10 starts and legitimate excuses for his three defeats, you would think that picking him in the Haskell (G1) last Sunday at Monmouth Park would be a cinch, but I went against him again. When watching horse races, bad trips are not always traffic related. In the 2001 Kentucky Derby (G1), Congaree was in perfect position on the far turn waiting to make his move. Suddenly, on his outside, stablemate Point Given pulled up alongside of him and Congaree would wait no longer. He was able to hold off Point Given but the premature effort he exerted cost him in the deep stretch when he ran out of gas and was caught for second by Invisible Ink. In Sunday's Haskell, Ramon Dominguez sent First Dude (Stephen Got Even) to the front and he was promptly stalked by Our Dark Knight (Medaglia d' Oro) who was serving as a rabbit for his stablemate Ice Box (Pulpit). Calvin Borel had to make a decision aboard Super Saver (Distorted Humor) going into the first turn -- go up after the leaders and run the risk of going three wide or take back and save ground. Unfortunately for Borel, Super Saver was pretty worked up going to the starting gate and was on the rank side after a 78-day layoff. Borel was able to get him to relax but at the expense of racing wide and losing ground. Over a track that has been playing over a full second slower than last year, the early pace of :23.52, :47.95 and 1:12.51 was sensible and the three leaders raced as a team into the far turn. Looming behind them without any discernible effort was Garcia aboard Lookin at Lucky. Rather than wait for the top of the stretch to make his move, Garcia moved early and it created a domino-like effect. Borel had to move early to keep Garcia at bay which forced Dominguez's hand aboard First Dude. Instead of waiting for the last possible moment to ask for run, Borel had to go to keep Garcia from passing him and it cost him all his late energy. It wasn't going to matter since Lookin at Lucky was going to win even if Garcia took a nap with a quarter mile to go, but it showed how race tactics create trips. Super Saver battled with Lookin at Lucky for a few strides but then could not keep up. He kept on fighting through the lane as Trappe Shot (Tapit) passed him and wound up losing the photo for show by a nose to First Dude. Lookin at Lucky covered the 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.83 and earned a career-best BRIS Speed rating of 107. After the race, he spiked a fever and had to be treated with penicillin so a trip to Saratoga for the Travers S. (G1) is out. Baffert has said that the Woodward (G1) a week later is a possibility but would also be unlikely. Regardless of whether I get to see him up here and personally apologize to him, Lookin at Lucky is a lot better horse than I realized. The Jim Dandy S. (G2) was run on Saturday at Saratoga and it was an intriguing event that can be analyzed a myriad of ways. Over a track that was playing fast all day, Miner's Reserve (Mineshaft) was able to outsprint his rivals and make the lead going around the clubhouse turn. Johnny Velazquez yielded the lead on the first turn aboard A LITTLE WARM (Stormin Fever) and took up the chase down the backstretch. It was a remake of the race at Delaware Park on June 29 that I wrote about in the July 2 edition of Handicapping Insights. They battled through a half in :46.80 and six furlongs in 1:10.82. My top pick, Afleet Express (Afleet Alex), was back in fifth place down on the rail but was only running in spots. Even with the fast pace, Miner's Reserve and A Little Warm were not backing down and they maintained their advantage turning for home. Belmont S. (G1) runner-up Fly Down (Mineshaft) was struggling to mount any kind of rally and Javier Castellano had Afleet Express in a drive around the far turn without much response. A Little Warm surged to the front approaching the furlong pole and Miner's Reserve held on resolutely for second. Somehow nearing the wire, Afleet Express began to make up ground and closed for third, beaten only 2 1/2 lengths. The final time of 1:47.98 was excellent but only earned a BRIS Speed rating of 104. The questions that have to be answered when these horses run back in the Travers are many. Did the top two run their races because of the speedy track? Did their fast pace hold up because they are top horses or did the track carry them. Did Afleet Express rally because he finally got going or did the top two come back to him? If he was rallying strongly, why was he only a half-length ahead of Friend or Foe (Friend's Lake)? Is Fly Down a legitimate three-year-old or was his Belmont second-place finish a fluke in a very slow race? Can A Little Warm go 10 furlongs or did that slowing down at the wire of the Jim Dandy expose a distance limitation? With Lookin at Lucky not going in the Travers, we should see a full gate of three-year-olds in a very difficult handicapping exercise. I can't wait. Watching horses before their races can be profitable if you know what you are doing. But every once in a while a horse comes along that violates all the things that you are supposed to be looking for. In Sunday's 6TH race at Del Mar, a maiden special weight for three-year-olds and up going 1 1/16 miles on the turf, the horses came out on the track for the post parade. Last weekend saw fewer clouds and more sun than normal, but BEACHROCK (Maria's Mon) looked like he already went swimming in the nearby beach. He was completely soaked with sweat and with the temperature only being in the mid 70s, you could easily toss him out as you are always advised by body language aficionados. The betting public seemed to agree as he was dismissed at odds of 9-1 but turning for home, here he was splitting horses to get up and win by a half-length. Now that he has broken his maiden, he's one to watch as he moves up in class if he ever settles down before the race.
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