|
|
INTERNATIONAL DIARY AUGUST 7, 2010 In the wake of the scintillating performance of HARBINGER (Dansili [GB]) in the July 24 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot, we are left wondering, precisely what is he a "harbinger" of? Doom to his opponents...historic achievement...fulfillment of the dreams of his syndicate of owners...and the puncturing of the dreams inspired by his younger stablemate, Derby (Eng-G1) conqueror WORKFORCE (King's Best), who beat only his pacemaker home in an effort as bewildering as it was dismal. [Saturday update: Literally hours after this was posted late Friday night, there was bombshell news: Harbinger sustained a condylar fracture of his left front cannon bone in a routine gallop early Saturday morning. Although his owners, Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, haven't yet ruled out the possibility of a return to racing next year, it's only logical to suppose that they'll decide to retire him to stud.] Going into the King George, even the camp of trainer Sir Michael Stoute was divided over the respective merits of the two highly-regarded colts. Each reportedly had his staunch defenders among the lads, suggesting that however the 1 1/2-mile showpiece turned out, it was hardly expected to be a one-horse show. Therein lay the truly stunning aspect of Harbinger's history-making romp. It would have been no cause for amazement if the talented four-year-old beat the talented three-year-old. After all, Harbinger was unbeaten this season, and coming off an impressive victory in the Hardwicke S. (Eng-G2) over the same course and distance. But who could have possibly envisioned Harbinger soaring to an 11-length triumph, a record margin for the race, in a course-record time of 2:26.78, while under minimal encouragement from Olivier Peslier? This all sounds awfully familiar. Workforce's smashing Derby triumph had prompted similar thoughts in my last diary -- sure, he was a logical candidate, but to win like that??? Indeed, Harbinger looked like a winner from a very long way out. Drafting just behind Workforce and Irish Derby (Ire-G1) hero CAPE BLANCO (Galileo [Ire]), Harbinger telegraphed that he was full of run, just awaiting Peslier's cue, while the sophomores were being pushed along. As Harbinger delivered the coup de grace, and rapidly surged clear, an unpleasant surprise was unfolding in his wake. Workforce failed to produce anything at all, then went into backpedal mode. Even early on, Workforce didn't give off the same vibe as he did at Epsom; here, he never seemed to switch off, although he wasn't actually rank or visibly anxious. I expected him to take up a position farther off the pace, as he did in the Derby and in his loss to Cape Blanco in the Dante S. (Eng-G2). Why the change in tactics by Ryan Moore, Stoute's stable rider who had chosen Workforce over Harbinger? Was Moore so concerned about Harbinger that he was determined to get first run on him? If so, did that have the effect of taking Workforce out of his game? In any event, Workforce sputtered so badly down the stretch that the tactics can't be held responsible for the scale of his flop -- a complete antithesis to the impression he created in the Derby. And that brings us to another angle of the Harbinger motif. Does he serve as an omen against taking one performance too much to heart, as many of us did in the case of Workforce? If so, that could be a double-edged sword for himself. If Workforce's Derby wasn't what it promised to be at the time, might Harbinger's King George be overestimated as well? Only time will tell, but at the moment, the King George form has a lot more going for it than the Derby form. Cape Blanco, who has run but a single bad race in his life, chased the Stoute pacemaker throughout, yet held on well to finish a clear second in the King George. (Nevertheless, I still want to see him back at 1 1/4 miles; the Dante remains his most emphatic performance to date.) Third-place finisher YOUMZAIN (Sinndar), with his Group 1 form stretching over five seasons now, is the nearest thing that racing has to dendrochronology. This three-time Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) runner-up was beaten 14 1/4 lengths by Harbinger, while placing in the King George for the third straight year. For whatever it's worth, Youmzain defeated fourth-placer DARYAKANA (Selkirk) by a neck, virtually the same margin between them as in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (Fr-G1) in their prior start. Furthermore, although multiple Group 1 star FAME AND GLORY (Montjeu [Ire]) sat out the King George, a strict reading of the form through Youmzain implies that he would have been up against it versus Harbinger at Ascot: Fame and Glory had beaten Youmzain a total of 3 1/2 lengths when last in action in the Coronation Cup (Eng-G1). Harbinger could rank as the most gifted European older horse we've seen since Montjeu (Ire) (thinking specifically here of 1 1/2-mile performers), but that idea will be put to the ultimate test in the Arc on October 3. If Harbinger passes that test, he would join an exclusive club of those who turned the King George/Arc double in the same year -- the immortal *Ribot (1956), an ancestor of Harbinger via his paternal grandsire Danehill; *Ballymoss (1958); Mill Reef (1971); Dancing Brave (1986); Lammtarra (1995); and Dylan Thomas (Ire) (2007). (Two others captured the King George the summer following their Arc triumphs, Montjeu in 2000 and Hurricane Run [Ire] in 2006). It's statistically deadly to try the Arc off a layoff, so Stoute is mulling his options for a prep. The August 17 Juddmonte International (Eng-G1) has entered the equation for the Highclere colorbearer. The syndicate's Harry Herbert cautioned, however, that Harbinger wouldn't be supplemented if the ground were too firm at York. A true 12-furlong horse, Harbinger would also be turning back in distance for the Juddmonte, held over a little longer than 1 1/4 miles. The Juddmonte comes a bit quick after the King George for Harbinger, so I'd prefer the spacing to the September 4 Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1). That 1 1/4-mile affair would likewise entail shortening up in distance, but the ground conditions figure to be suitable at Leopardstown. Fame and Glory, who reappears in Sunday's Royal Whip S. (Ire-G2) at the Curragh, figures to be among the Aidan O'Brien squadron forming for the Irish Champion. This would also be the prime spot for Cape Blanco to revert to 10 furlongs. If Harbinger can handle Juddmonte's or Ballydoyle's finest at this trip, he'll show a new dimension. [Sadly, of course, those options, and the Arc, are now out of the question in the wake of Harbinger's career-threatening injury.] Future targets for Workforce are much less certain. No physical problem has been pinpointed after a battery of tests, so the King George remains as inexplicable as it was before. He clearly is better than he showed at Ascot, and the King George is a throw-out for him. But on the other hand, is Workforce not as good as advertised at Epsom? Workforce's colossal triumph was no illusion, and his course record-setting effort may have taken a lot out of the lightly-raced colt. I'm not going to the opposite extreme to condemn him as an overrated fluke; rather, I'm taking the Derby as a true measure of his ability for the moment, giving him the benefit of the doubt. And doubts there are. In truth, Harbinger wasn't the first harbinger of the fact that Workforce's Derby form was in shreds -- that was becoming worrisome even before he faced his elders in the King George. While I had dismissed the fact that three Derby alumni, including shocking 100-1 runner-up AT FIRST SIGHT (Galileo [Ire]), were all convincingly beaten next time out in the King Edward VII S. (Eng-G2), and that three other Derby runners, including JAN VERMEER (Montjeu [Ire]) and MIDAS TOUCH (Galileo [Ire]), were beaten by their Ballydoyle stablemate Cape Blanco in the Irish Derby, the warning signals grew harder to ignore. True, Derby also-ran BUZZWORD (GB) (Pivotal) offered a rare validation of the form with a smart score in the July 18 Deutsches Derby (Ger-G1), but considering that he had been one of those beaten in the King Edward VII, one couldn't read too much into Hamburg. Most alarmingly for the Derby form, Jan Vermeer was drubbed in the July 14 Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-G1) at Longchamp, reporting home nearly six lengths behind in a one-paced third. O'Brien later blamed himself for his handling of Jan Vermeer. Rushed to make the Derby, he hasn't progressed since then and will now be freshened. That begs the question of whether we saw the real Jan Vermeer at Epsom at all. Dominating the Grand Prix finish were two graduates of the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) (Fr-G1), with Jockey Club fourth BEHKABAD (Cape Cross [Ire]) turning the tables on Jockey Club runner-up PLANTEUR (Danehill Dancer). The step up to 1 1/2 miles certainly helped Behkabad, an Aga Khan homebred trained by Jean-Claude Rouget. A half-brother to Beheshtam (Peintre Celebre), who never lived up to his promise in France, and is still star-crossed in Hong Kong under his new name of Carthage, Behkabad has done much better. After capping a perfect juvenile campaign with a victory in the Prix des Chenes (Fr-G3), he suffered his first loss when third in the April 1 Prix Omnium II, but moved forward off that reappearance to capture the May 10 Prix de Guiche (Fr-G3). Behkabad fared best of those trying to come from off the pace in the Jockey Club, where he regrouped from a bumping incident to get up for fourth. With such a solid resume, he was qualified to make his presence felt in the Grand Prix. Somewhat frustrating for me, though, was that Planteur appeared even more attractive, only to undermine his own cause in the Grand Prix. The Wildenstein homebred had exuded class in his sophomore debut in the April 11 Prix Noailles (Fr-G2), easily beating eventual Derby third REWILDING (Tiger Hill), prior to his fine second in the Jockey Club. From the all-star family of Peintre Celebre and Pawneese, Planteur was poised to break through at the top level for Elie Lellouche, or so I hoped. Behkabad tracked the pace in a lovely ground-saving position, launched an early bid in the stretch, and was soon accosted by the late-running Planteur. Although Planteur threatened to engulf Behkabad, he cost himself dearly by drifting out and losing momentum. Planteur righted his course and came again, but it was too late. A resolute Behkabad kept on by three-quarters of a length. Behkabad's whole attitude suggested that he was ready for a dogfight, and he might have outgamed Planteur in any event. Still, judging by the eye-catching momentum that Planteur had earlier, I suspect that he's capable of exacting revenge. This was also the first time that Planteur encountered very soft ground, which may have played to Behkabad's strengths. With his sharper turn of foot, Planteur could prefer better going. Both colts are on course for the Arc, with the September 12 Prix Niel (Fr-G2) the usual prep for the three-year-olds. The Aga Khan's assembly line has churned out another potential Arc colt in SHIMRAAN (Rainbow Quest), who uncorked an impressive burst of speed to garner the July 25 Prix Eugene Adam (Fr-G2) in only his third career start. Trained by Alain de Royer-Dupre, Shimraan engineered a last-to-first move and outfinished the useful SHAMALGAN (Footstepsinthesand [GB]) by a neck, with the pair three lengths clear of the rest. Once again, the French classic form prevailed over the British: Shamalgan, third in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French Two Thousand Guineas) (Fr-G1), was bouncing back from a poor 13th in the French Derby, while yet another Epsom runner was well adrift in France. In two other footnotes to the depth of that French Derby, Cape Blanco never got involved after a troubled trip in 10th, and fifth-placer VISCOUNT NELSON (Giant's Causeway) returned to finish an excellent third versus older horses in the July 3 Eclipse S. (Eng-G1). Should the pummeling of the Epsom form be viewed as a sure harbinger of Workforce's flop in the King George? Not at all. For the relative strength of the French Derby form meant nothing when its impressive winner returned to action. Dual French classic hero LOPE DE VEGA (Shamardal), whose form has been implicitly touted in the preceding paragraphs, turned in a flop of epic proportions in the July 4 Prix Jean Prat (Fr-G1). In fact, Lope de Vega was actually worse than Workforce, because he didn't even manage to beat his own pacemaker and trailed in last. Lope de Vega had looked like the next Gallic superstar after the Poulains and French Derby. Initially scheduled to enjoy a rest after his June 6 conquest at Chantilly, and not to reappear until Deauville, he was surprisingly brought back just four weeks later for the Jean Prat. Whatever led Andre Fabre to change his mind, in hindsight, it was a bad idea. For the first six furlongs or so, all appeared in good order for Lope de Vega, as he cruised on the bridle and waited to pounce. He produced his challenge in the stretch, but instead of racing away, he suddenly came up empty. Lope de Vega was but a ghost of himself, and regular rider Maxime Guyon did the right thing and took care of him. Meanwhile, the Richard Hannon-trained DICK TURPIN (Arakan) was at the top of his formidable game, and avenged his narrow loss at Lope de Vega's hands in the Poulains. Storming four lengths clear in ultra-impressive fashion, he might well have upset even an in-form Lope de Vega in the Jean Prat. It was a much-deserved Group 1 laurel for Dick Turpin, who had finished second in three straight tilts at that level. Runner-up to MAKFI (Dubawi) in the Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) at Newmarket, he followed his excellent effort in the Poulains with a second in the St James's Palace S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot. Dick Turpin seems to have improved since the St James's Palace, for he demolished two of his returning rivals -- SIYOUNI (Pivotal) and HEARTS OF FIRE (Firebreak) -- by a much wider margin in the Jean Prat. Of course, Dick Turpin's success paid a handsome compliment to his better-regarded stablemate, Irish Two Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) romper CANFORD CLIFFS (Tagula), who had collared him late in the St James's Palace. Canford Cliffs enhanced his reputation still further by defeating a solid field of older horses in the July 28 Sussex S. (Eng-G1) in style at Glorious Goodwood. Reserved in his usual spot near the rear, the Hannon pupil spotted O'Brien's multiple Group 1 hero RIP VAN WINKLE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]), the defending Sussex champion, a sizeable head start. "Rip," with Moore subbing for the suspended Johnny Murtagh, tried to take advantage. I thought Moore might move a shade earlier, but Rip powered clear when asked a little more than a furlong from home. By that point, a confident Richard Hughes had angled Canford Cliffs out for the drive, and the three-year-old caught Rip in full flight. Once assured of victory, Hughes wrapped up and deliberately made it look like an easy neck. Rip, short of fitness when sixth in the Queen Anne S. (Eng-G1) in his comeback, was much closer to his peak form here. Next time will be his third start off a layoff, and Rip might be at his absolute best. Indications are that the Juddmonte International is a real possibility. Judging by his heroic near-miss to Sea the Stars in the 2009 Eclipse, the Juddmonte distance is ideal for him, arguably better than a flat mile. Rip will meet the razor-sharp Juddmonte homebred duo of TWICE OVER (GB) (Observatory) and BYWORD (Peintre Celebre), both well suited to the distance. The Andre Fabre-trained Byword stole a march on the Henry Cecil-trained Twice Over last time out in the Prince of Wales's S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot. Twice Over has since come back to capture the Eclipse at Sandown under an inspired Tom Queally ride. In a tactically adroit move, Twice Over was up on the pace throughout in the small field, stormed clear in the stretch, and held on by a safe half-length. [Saturday update: With Harbinger out, Rip has been hammered into antepost favoritism for the Juddmonte International.] Canford Cliffs and Rip outclassed the rest of the Sussex field, finishing about three lengths ahead of third-placer PREMIO LOCO (Prized). He in turn was exiting a victory in the July 10 Summer Mile S. (Eng-G2) at Ascot, and Premio Loco beat DREAM EATER (Night Shift) by roughly the same margin in both the Summer Mile and the Sussex. That makes the Sussex form look pretty solid. Not only had Dream Eater previously finished third in the Queen Anne, but Summer Mile runner-up VERTIGINEUX (Nombre Premier) had earlier chased the classy French colt FUISSE (Green Tune), who just extended his winning streak to three in the July 17 Prix Messidor (Fr-G3). The dream match-up among the milers would pit rising star Canford Cliffs against reigning queen GOLDIKOVA (Ire) (Anabaa), but unfortunately, that doesn't appear to be on the cards. Hannon has identified the September 25 Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot as the next objective for Canford Cliffs, and he has already ruled out the Breeders' Cup. As it stands now, Goldikova and Canford Cliffs are ships passing in the night, for the French sovereign will continue to race at home before attempting her three-peat in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1). Goldikova remained perfect from three starts this campaign with an effortless victory in last Sunday's Prix Rothschild (Fr-G1) against fellow distaffers at Deauville. After beating top males in the Prix d'Ispahan (Fr-G1) and Queen Anne, the Rothschild loomed as a ceremonial exercise for the champion, and she treated it accordingly. In her patented fashion, Goldikova traveled like a dream, strolled to the front, ran in earnest for a few strides to open up on the field, and called it a day to win by three lengths, geared down. It was her third straight score in the Rothschild, and the easiest of them all. That's not to demean her competitors -- runner-up MUSIC SHOW (Noverre) had run well in three straight Group 1s before whipping her elders in the July 7 Falmouth S. (Eng-G1) at Newmarket in her prior start -- but rather to underscore trainer Freddie Head's belief that Goldikova is better than ever. Having notched her 10th career Grade/Group 1 tally in the Rothschild, Goldikova will now bid to earn an 11th when she lines up to defend her title in the August 15 Prix Jacques le Marois (Fr-G1) over the same course and distance. That comes too soon for Canford Cliffs, but the Hannon yard will be represented by multiple Group 1 winner PACO BOY (Desert Style), who has been recharging his batteries since falling a neck short of Goldikova in the Queen Anne. Fuisse, who had established his Group 1 bona fides when finishing second in last year's French Derby, is another older male expected to challenge Goldikova, while Makfi, an uncharacteristic seventh when ill in the St James's Palace, represents the classic generation. Another Breeders' Cup star, Filly & Mare Turf (G1) winner MIDDAY (GB) (Oasis Dream [GB]), also mounted a successful title defense in the July 31 Nassau S. (Eng-G1) at Glorious Goodwood. As mentioned in a previous diary, news of her was sparse ever since her runner-up effort to SARISKA (Pivotal) in the Middleton S. (Eng-G2) at York in May. It turns out that Midday came out of that race on firm ground "jarred up," as Cecil put it. The Juddmonte Farms homebred found Goodwood to her liking and was back on song in the Nassau. Midday made it a little more thrilling than her supporters might have appreciated, however. Always well placed by Queally, Midday took command with a powerful punch at the top of the stretch and hinted that she'd turn the about 1 1/4-mile test into a rout. But a funny thing happened on the way to the finish line. Whether she thought that the race was already over, or otherwise got distracted and took her eye off the ball, she shortened stride and came back to her pursuers. Chief among them was multiple French Group 1 heroine STACELITA (Monsun), who overhauled the absent-minded Midday. Just when it appeared that she had frittered the race away, Midday sprang back to life and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, in what could be a preview of the Filly & Mare Turf at Churchill Downs. The renewed struggle didn't last long, for once Midday knew that she was in a race with the Breeders' Cup-bound Stacelita, she made a second winning move to score decisively. Midday did come over on Stacelita right before the wire, but Stacelita was beaten fair and square at the time, and the stewards were right to allow the order of finish to stand. Cecil noted that the August 19 Yorkshire Oaks (Eng-G1) is probably next, with the proviso that the ground isn't too firm. Hopefully the Knavesmire will furnish good, safe ground, for the Yorkshire Oaks is shaping up to be a fantastic race. Others pointing to the 1 1/2-mile affair include Sariska, last seen finishing second to Fame and Glory in the Coronation Cup; Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE-G1) winner DAR RE MI (GB) (Singspiel [Ire]), a tiring fourth in her European return in the Eclipse; and the surprise package of the season, Oaks (Eng-G1) and Irish Oaks (Ire-G1) diva SNOW FAIRY (Intikhab). Regular readers may recall that I went out of my way to nitpick Snow Fairy's Epsom victory. Does she read my diaries herself? Or have others told her? Snow Fairy silenced this carping critic with an eight-length masterpiece in the July 18 Irish Oaks, totally vindicating trainer Ed Dunlop's assessment that she had progressed since Epsom. It's difficult to believe that she didn't really take to the good to yielding ground at the Curragh, as both Dunlop and jockey Moore opined, and her margin may have been a touch exaggerated if her principal rivals failed to cope. Nevertheless, Snow Fairy has left no room for conjecture regarding her superiority among the British- or Irish-based sophomore fillies at this 1 1/2-mile trip. Our upcoming turf diary will take stock of the Europeans winging their way to Arlington Park for the August 21 International Festival of Racing, headlined by the Arlington Million (G1).
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
