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CLASSIC DIARY OCTOBER 15, 2010 by James Scully "We are not interested in the possibilities of defeat -- they do not exist." -- Queen Victoria, the longest-reigning monarch in British history With one race to go, the era of the Queen of Thoroughbred racing, ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]), is coming to a close. The spectacular mare had done more than enough to justify her retirement at the end of last year, becoming the first female Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner with her one-length score at Santa Anita, but owners Mr. & Mrs. Jerry Moss weren't ready for her to leave the racing scene. Zenyatta still had the fire in her belly, and the decision to bring her back proved to be the ultimate gift for every racing fan. As a result, the build-up to this year's Breeders' Cup Classic is special, very special. The task at hand is daunting for the Queen. No American Thoroughbred has ever gone 20-for-20, and the California-based Zenyatta will be making her first career start east of the Mississippi at Churchill Downs and only her third dirt attempt. But all she likes to do is win. Her opposition on Pro-Ride was difficult to measure, with a pair of turf champions finishing second and third behind her in the 2009 Classic, and the John Shirreffs-trained dynamo will now have to square off against a trio of top-class dirt males in BLAME (Arch), LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) and QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality). However, the jockeys of those horses have every reason to worry about her -- let's see them try to stop the Queen. Everyone will be bracing for the mighty late run of Zenyatta. Girl Power: Zenyatta is not big on pre-race exercise. She gets warmed up during the early stages of the race, biding her time at the back of the pack without regard to how fast the front runners are traveling, and begins her assault on the far turn with jockey Mike Smith. Her BRIS Late Pace ratings tell the story. The Queen has recorded Late Pace figures of 130, 128 and 127, and garnered a 116 in last year's Classic. Only twice in her career, and not once since 2008, has she failed to receive a triple-digit number. Zenyatta delivers a ferocious stretch kick and knows where the finish line is. She's five-for-five this year, with a half-length decision in the October 2 Lady's Secret S. (G1) most recently, and will be the overwhelming public choice in the Classic. Favored at 5-2 last year, Zenyatta probably will be in the even-money vicinity on November 6. And many winning tickets won't be cashed if she proves successful, with fans and collectors saving win wagers as a memento to her final performance. Zenyatta is typically making her move into a very slow pace, but the 2009 Classic was different, with an opening half-mile in :47 4/5 and three-quarters in 1:11 4/5 in the 1 1/4-mile event. The likely pace scenario at Churchill appears favorable for her repeat bid with speed types HAYNESFIELD (Speightstown), MORNING LINE (Tiznow) and FIRST DUDE (Stephen Got Even) ready to set the table. Horse racing has been in the national spotlight recently due to the opening of Secretariat, and they'll have the story-book ending for the Zenyatta movie if she wins the Classic. Top threats: BLAME has captured his last three starts at Churchill Downs, capping his three-year-old season with a victory in the Clark H. (G2) last November and winning the top race for older horses, the June 12 Stephen Foster H. (G1), three starts back. He knocked off divisional leader Quality Road in the Whitney H. (G1) on August 8 and received a good prep for the Classic when second in the October 2 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park. Haynesfield was loose on a slow lead in the Gold Cup and could not be caught, but Blame made up ground in the stretch and received a career-best 112 BRIS Speed rating while receiving a valuable prep at the Classic distance. He's eligible to move forward off that experience for Al Stall Jr., and Blame figures to make his presence felt in the Churchill stretch under jockey Garrett Gomez. LOOKIN AT LUCKY is a stand-out in the three-year-old division, winning the Preakness (G1) and Haskell Invitational (G1) in convincing fashion prior to being derailed by a minor illness in early August. He returned to the worktab in early September for Bob Baffert and tuned up for his Classic bid with a sharp score in the October 2 Indiana Derby (G2), closing from last to first to win going away by 1 1/4 lengths. His last two BRIS Speed ratings (107 and 106) are very respectable. It was encouraging to see Lookin at Lucky breeze four furlongs at Hollywood Park on Wednesday (October 13), and the champion two-year-old should be ready to fire his best shot in the Classic. QUALITY ROAD is powerfully built and loaded with speed, but he settles in a comfort zone with a target in front and jockey John Velazquez will look to place him within a couple of lengths of the lead, waiting to pounce, during the early stages of the Classic. The four-year-old colt will bring excellent BRIS Speed ratings into the event, earning a 116 for his 12 3/4-length romp the Donn H. (G1) earlier this year and a 107 for his 4 3/4-length score in the September 4 Woodward S. (G1) last time out. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt has never won at 1 1/4 miles, dropping both the Travers S. (G1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup in the slop last year, and he bypassed a recent prep race, training into the Breeders' Cup off a nine-week layoff. In the 26-year Classic history, Invasor (Arg) is the only winner without a prep race in the previous two months and he was already a multiple winner at 10 furlongs. One shouldn't put it past Quality Road given his superb talent, but the bay colt is taking an unconventional approach. Other players: FLY DOWN (Mineshaft) turned in a terrific effort in the Travers, winding up second by a nose after closing wide against an extreme inside/speed bias, but the three-year-old appeared to regress slightly off that performance when recording a non-threatening third in the Gold Cup. The late runner is a candidate to bounce back with a top performance for Nick Zito, and there's a lot to like about his last two Speed ratings (110 and 107). He may not be good enough to challenge for it all, but Fly Down rates as a contender for a top-three placing. Japanese raider ESPOIR CITY (Jpn) (Gold Allure) romped by 3 1/2 lengths in the 16-horse Japan Cup Dirt (Jpn-G1) last December and received a freshening after a couple of easy wins earlier this season, returning with a runner-up finish in the October 11 Mile Championship Nambu Hai. A dirt specialist in his native country, the classy seven-time stakes hero is eligible to move forward if handles the 1 1/4-mile trip. He adds intrigue to the Classic cast. RICHARD'S KID (Lemon Drop Kid) is a 1 1/4-mile specialist, winning the Pacific Classic (G1) for the second straight year two starts back, and the five-year-old retained his form when posting a half-length decision in the 1 1/8-mile Goodwood S. (G1) on October 2. Conditioned by Hall of Famer Baffert, the Maryland-bred has run well on dirt previously, winning the 2009 John B. Campbell H. at Laurel Park, but he's established his reputation on the synthetic tracks in Southern California. There's reason to doubt the quality of that competition, and Richard's Kid figures to be major outsider in the Breeders' Cup despite his commendable late kick. FIRST DUDE deserves kudos for being a very honest performer, placing in six straight graded events, including the Preakness, Belmont S. (G1) and Travers, and was beaten a neck last time when second in the September 25 Pennsylvania Derby (G2). But the Dale Romans-trained sophomore is still only a maiden winner and will be stepping up to the big time in the Classic. The speedy colt likes Churchill Downs, but it may be best to look for more from him next year. HAYNESFIELD loves Belmont, winning five-of-six attempts at the New York track, and was able to carry his speed 10 furlongs in the Gold Cup after being left unopposed on the early lead. He figures to face drastically different circumstances when making his first start outside of the Empire State in the Classic, and it's difficult to envision him being anything but a pace factor. MORNING LINE is a lightly-raced colt who was all out to post a neck decision in his stakes debut, the Pennsylvania Derby, and his connections feel that he has a chance to emulate his sire, Tiznow, who captured the 2000 Classic as a three-year-old. The big difference is that Tiznow already had five stakes starts to his credit, winning the Super Derby (G1) and Goodwood (G2) in his final two preps, and Morning Line is still relatively untested. He could develop into a top performer next season for Zito, but the best Breeders' Cup spot for him this year is the Dirt Mile (G1). Multiple Grade 2 victor MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) would compete for favoritism if properly spotted in the Dirt Mile, but trainer Derek Ryan is convinced that he's a 1 1/4-mile horse despite the fact that two of his best efforts this year, a nose second in the Carter H. (G1) and his lone 2010 stakes win, the Super S. at Tampa Bay Downs, both came at seven furlongs. His runner-up effort to ETCHED (Forestry) in the October 9 Monmouth Cup S. (G2) doesn't inspire any confidence for the Classic. Dirt Mile round-up: The field for the fourth running of the Dirt Mile is coming into focus, and Godolphin figures to be well represented with a pair of top contenders in VINEYARD HAVEN (Lido Palace [Chi]) and GAYEGO (Gilded Time). Vineyard Haven turned in two solid performances at Saratoga, recording a victory in the James Marvin S. before finishing third in the Forego (G1), and he'll make his third start of the year in the Dirt Mile for Saeed bin Suroor. The one-turn mile distance at Churchill Downs is a perfect fit for the talented gray colt, and Vineyard Haven will be forwardly placed from the start. Gayego will be doing his running from off the pace. He runs well fresh for his connections and exits an encouraging two-length score in track-record time in the September 10 Presque Isle Mile S. on Tapeta. While the majority of his starts over the last two seasons have come on synthetics, the five-year-old is a Grade 2 winner on dirt and owns a formidable late kick, recording Late Pace numbers of 115 and 111 (twice) in his last six U.S. starts. Gayego has also posted triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings in all of those starts. CROWN OF THORNS (Repent) is under consideration for both the Classic and Dirt Mile, but we'll be stunned if his connections opt to run him at 10 furlongs. Runner-up by a nose in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), the five-year-old returned to the races with a pair of encouraging seconds in the Pat O' Brien (G1) and Goodwood. In his third start off the layoff for Richard Mandella, Crown of Thorns looms as a serious win threat if he makes a successful transition to dirt as expected. After recording his first stakes win in the June 25 Kelly's Landing S. at Churchill, HERE COMES BEN (Street Cry [Ire]) stepped up with a commendable score in the September 4 Forego at Saratoga, netting career-best 107 Speed and 116 Late Pace ratings as well as his fourth straight victory. The Charles Lopresti charge has never finished out of the money under the Twin Spires, recording a 5-3-1-1 mark, including a tally at the mile distance, and the late runner must be respected on the upswing. Trainer Ian Wilkes is inclined to run WARRIOR'S REWARD (Medaglia d'Oro) in the Sprint (G1), but we wouldn't be shocked if he ultimately opts for the Dirt Mile. He is probably a little better at the seven-furlong distance, but the Grade 1 winner broke his maiden going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park in 2009 and owns a respectable 4-1-3-0 mark at Churchill Downs. His last three Speed ratings (95-103-98) are a little low, but the one-run closer will be returning to his favorite oval and can't be dismissed from top-three consideration if he goes in the Dirt Mile. Unraced since a non-threatening third in the Met Mile (G1), TIZWAY (Tiznow) turned in a sparkling performance in the one-mile Kelso H. (G2) on October 3, registering a 110 BRIS Speed rating for the dominant five-length victory. Trainer James Bond has always thought highly of the dark bay, running him the 2009 Whitney and Jockey Club Gold Cup prior to a poor showing behind Espoir City in the Japan Cup Dirt, but those races were too far for Tizway. The five-year-old horse didn't beat much last time, but he's a confirmed miler (6-3-1-1) who appears to be doing very well presently. A LITTLE WARM (Stormin Fever) is a three-year-old to consider in this year's Dirt Mile. Trained by Tony Dutrow, the Louisiana Derby (G2) and Hutcheson (G2) runner-up notched his first stakes win when capturing the Jim Dandy (G2) three starts back. The 10-furlong Travers proved too long for him, but the Virginia-bred rebounded with a fine third, beaten only a neck, in the Pennsylvania Derby. A Little Warm has earned some top BRIS Speed numbers this year (109 and 108) and figures to sit a perfect trip with his tactical speed. Grade 3 Marathon: The 1 3/4-mile Marathon (G3) kicks off the two-day Breeders' Cup program on Friday, and a couple of Euros, LAAHEB (GB) (Cape Cross [Ire]) and WHISPERING GALLERY (GB) (Daylami [Ire]), rate as leading contenders if they make the trip. The Michael Jarvis-trained Laaheb exits a pair of Group 3 wins, capturing the 1 1/2-mile September S. two back over Kempton's Polytrack two back and the 1 1/2-mile Cumberland Lodge S. at Ascot most recently, and sports a commendable 6-3-2-1 mark this season. Godolphin's Whispering Gallery posted a facile score in the 1 7/16-mile August S. two starts ago and finished second by a nose to Laaheb in the Cumberland Lodge last time. Trainer Aidan O'Brien saddled Man of Iron (Giant's Causeway) to a minor upset victory in last year's Marathon, and the Coolmore trainer is reportedly sending the three-year-old BRIGHT HORIZON (GB) (Galileo [Ire]) to this year's event. He exits a 5 1/2-length romp in a two-mile handicap at The Curragh on September 26. From the American contingent, Grade 2 winner HOLD ME BACK (Giant's Causeway) and last-out Jamaica H. (G1) hero PRINCE WILL I AM (Victory Gallop) own the top credentials. Previews: I'll give my final analysis of the Classic, Dirt Mile and Marathon in our next edition.
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